Seems like a realistic scenario, but I follow a different analysis.
I expect that in the near future there will be a financial collapse. These repeat every 7 years or so and we are already overdue. There are many ticking time-bombs in the world where it could start. This time I expect it will be starting in Europe when the Euro finally breaks.
Bitcoin was developed as an answer to the last financial crisis and this time around the technology is more or less ready. Once the next crisis hits bitcoin will rise in value dramatically.
I dont now when this will happen but I expect the latest reasonable date would be 2025 or 7 more years in the future without a major crash. But the problem is that we have no clue when this will be. And these crashes develop very fast. Therefore I think it is better to buy now and not try to optimise the maximum low for small gains at the risk of missing out on the main action.
Prices now are a bargain. Maybe it will go to 5000, maybe 2000, but what really matters is that you are already in crypto when the crash hits. Because if you are not onboarding then will be painful and with big losses.
I would emphasize "less" ready. LN still isn't ready for mainstream use. The devs have made LN deliberately difficult to set up while in the testing stages because they don't want non tech types losing their money. The scaling issue is still very much in play. The only tech I'm aware of that has solved this issue is @dan's projects (EOS, Steem, Bitshares) and maybe the Waves platform. In these projects, the question is whether they are decentralized enough, but they will have no trouble onboarding new users in a financial collapse. The other networks will suffer massive strain (especially ETH which is already at the limit). Check out blocktivity.info.
I completely agree. But i am quite optimistic that things could develope quite fast if there is enough pressure. Right now I think that Bitshares could be a winner. But if there is a global crash a lot of effort will go into making LN operational.