)
SUMMARY
The below chart shows an updated Elliott Wave count. Note the five subwaves of red wave C. It's subwaves could be adjusted to count five as being complete. IF so, then the bottom could be in; however, we would need price to make higher higghs and exceed the bottom of subwave (3). This would allow the a confirmation of the bottom of Wave C.
Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
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Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?
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Whats about this? is this a rising wedge, isnt it? this should be a bearish indicator, right?
So that happened!
Good call on the rising wedge @z0rn
It's not looking good for the bulls
I think by now ...it's obvious correction was not done. What are your thoughts? Even though this can happen I set my ladders between 11k-9k.
8k
I can see it hitting 11k in the next 2 days.
You right read! Read more here.
Organise a TAF guys alliance, A list of people in Technical analysis of crypto currencies, if you interested!!
You are Upvoted!
I believe this is the correct interpretation. If you combine the chart with the 1 hour MACD across virtually every coin, you can see signs of bullish exhaustion, and some kind of a downward move seems imminent
Agreed. The MACD on LTC ETH and BTC is indicating a down spurt. Not sure how low but at least a dip from where it is at.
Yes. The upward move that some called 'vigorous,' wasn't at all, it became weaker and weaker.
We may see the 8000 yet. Silent night everybody !
Even though @haejin doesn't think so, I believe the H&S still can't be ruled out, especially in light of the rising wedge:
it sgoing to be a rough few days, try not to make mad moves that you will regret. If unsure.... do nothing at all is the best advice i have heard.
People are selling for christmas presents, the whales buy cars, boats, houses, have mistresses to wine and dine. It can take alot of Bitcoin. There is a lot of investment coming in January, sit tight and get prepared cause 2018 is going to be bigger than 2017.
Verge could hit $5 easily.
People dont learn, within a week they will be as crazy as ever, probably higher highs, use this time to plan for the next correction.
Main thing i learnt this time was, there are warning signs, but you need to take notice, once that whale dumped his Bitcoin and put in down to 7k that was a red flag. You live and learn.
Very nicely observed ;)
BTC just started dropping again.
The head is supposed to have the largest volume.
I know @haejin said that, but that's not the understanding I have, nor what http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_top_reversal says either.
The head has lower volume then each of the shoulders.
Volume does not really matter that much in my opinion when the market is not liquid enough because there is 200.000+ transactions sitting in the mempool. 60% of Bitcoin adresses are unusable due to high fees. This is when you have to look at the fundamentals and other factors than just TA. As well as how other coins are acting compared to BTC. I'm very bearish on Bitcoin short term and long term and my current target after this dead cat bounce is 8.000... for now.
I think TA predicts the current situation, but I guess it's just how you interpenetrate the data. I think the volume pattern is bang on so far for a H&S.
I want to see increasing volume now as the right shoulder drops. If that happens, I'm seeing 6k over the next week or 2.
The 'interpenetrate' is genius level ;)
Increasing volume right now sure won't be coming from MY side...
Seems we didn't get an evening update this time ?
Yeah!
There have been fractal bear shapes everywhere! And we just broke out of the latest one
That stupid haters of @haejin has down voted me.. Please help me to get back reputation so that we all need to teach lesson for haters and selfish people in this community
I hope so. I saw the same thing. I miss the initial big drop while I was working. Was going to buy in around 13 last night but thought we were in for another wave 5 drop.
And this rising wedge is a pattern of consolidation of the downtrend. But with bitcoin nobady knows
That is true. I've seen BTC break up from rising wedges in the past! haha
Yes, I had been looking at that triangle for many hours, and it finally broke out downwards...
the entire tendency had been upwards, but with ever weaker and lower highs and higher lows...
Hope is a bitch, and now we know ;))
You are our SANTA
I might start creating a bunch of gifs myself, this seems to be very profitable!
Okay, here's one but it will take time to attach haejin's head to it and in this state it's entirely unrelated to this thread - apart from the fact that "what we do is brainy" ;)
I hope so
Your last EW pattern was DEAD ON, you said we were due for impulse five which would send us lower. Now I would say $25K is a good target zone for the next major rally :-D That is exactly what I told my roommate yesterday too.
You guys should really think about making your own analysis, that's what haejin always says. If you follow blindly what he says you'll take win with him but also "losses" ... 100% accuracy is just mathematically opposed to a probability system. Anyway next time ladder when the end could have been reached until it's done.
I do my own TA all the time man. I use different tools and techniques but our conclusions normally overlap. This man has a special talent- FOR MAKING MONEY :-D
his last EW pattern says 1 more down is due.... i was waiting with my buy ladders ... crap !
It wont go down and current price is the price to ladder then? Please help!
if you think it wont go down... then whats the point with ladder !!!
Ladders are free.
If you laddered, you did the right thing and should not have lost any money. If price is on route to $26k all of us will profit. so Win win pretty much :)
"It's always better to be out of the market wishing you were in it than in the market wishing you were out of it. Never forget this."
-Haejin
I know that feeling very well and have often wished to get out (and frequently got out asap) - FOMO is now a lesser power in my mind.
But it's still there...
I shifted money in and out of bitcoin about five times already today, and so far I always made slight profits but that's not why I'm doing it - I'm doing it to stay on the safe side ;)
Man i am glad I️ found your page and started following you.
I just started following you recently. I am brand new to crypto.. but i am so exited and i see good things happening soon!
I am so happy i found you! you are brilliant! How long do you think it will take for btc to hit 25k?
Not this year ;)
My plan was waiting till next year anyway.. my goal was to get my inicial $300 hit $500 to cash the extra 200 out and leave the $300 to grow again.. but maybe it would be best to set a higher goal ? haha :)
Well... just my take, I'm into this since two months... apart from a coin making a big gain and expecting that to happen (which would basically be hodling) - if you are online a lot, at a good trading place that really works, you can easily make 10% plus a week - by staying out of danger all he time and only taking safe bets. Like, when Haejin is really sure about something, and two other TAs as well, plus you see it's plausible, then you go for it... that is, if coins are trading the way bitcoin is now, making hardly any gains and just rising and falling a bit all the time. nothing exotic, just the daily highs and lows... you want coins that are rather static for this, like one is in a triangle and everybody is waiting and waiting for it to break out, this is your time.
Now it's at 14200, then at 14800, then at 14500, then 15100, then 14800 again... you will have 1100 dollars for the thousand you stared with but you have to be alert, and bugger out for the night, change your coins into fiat so nothing an happen. Sothat you can have a life and get some sleep ;)
You would have 1400 dollars after one month, 1960 after two, and so on... this is what day traders do. The catch is that with money in the lower hundreds, the cost is relatively high, a buy and sell can cost a few dollars, so you would only be able to trade when the gain is above that amount... but that doesn't matter because you need some practice., you'll learn how to handle this after a few weeks of actual trading. Now to do that, and learn from mistakes, using just a few hundred is of course ideal. If you start now, you might be able to start in earnest in February, and maybe have a thousand bucks to act with till then ;) I went in and out of bitcoin five times today while it was more or less going sideways (slightly up, could as well have been slightly down), and I earned about 7% while practically nothing happened. See what I mean ?
It does take some nerve though but it gets easier with time... and you can always take a break, stay in fiat with half or all your money...
Have to warn you though, you will lose a bit at the start, from jumping in the wrong direction - but with caution...
When you do that kind of short trading...do you set for yourself a profit & stop loss limit before you even click the button? If so ..how low do you set your stop loss limit on these kind of trades? Wether it being actually setting an order , or just having a limit in your mind.
So far, I only trade in day time, and I hardly do any limit trades. You see, the difference that makes a trade worthwhile is about $300 up or down, no need to try below that - that is what algos/bots do all the time. Setting stop limits is of course basically the better method but in practice it's also so clumsy and time consuming. I like to immediately see what happens... I do act a lot like the bots do, it basically doesn't matter if the general tendency is up or down, you win two thirds of the trades and lose one thirds, in essence you always win but the gains are little. If stop limits work smoothly at the place you trade, then go for it - test it out a few times where there's no risk and find out, and then tell me ;)
Oh, I keep watching two charts all the time, I'm a visual person... I mark my limits on the charts, with yellow markers. Very intuitive.
Thanks for taking the time to answer.
To sum my question: At what -% do you accept a loss?
If for example in a 5 min candle you think you bought the dip...but it turns out it goes lower.
Could just go up or could go down to 8k$ then up. Anyway the probablitiy it won't go back to 20k$ in the next 3 months is really really thin imo
lol
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/essay-why-is-time-projection-so-difficult-for-technical-analysts
Agreed, as i said before to my friends that wanted to start investing, this crash was a good opportunity to buy :)
This is what I'm seeing:
I think that yours is exaggerated... just a possibility, not probable. Were having such slow rise because of low volume because the ratio of BCH/BTC is rising again, meaning that many people rather invest in Bitcoin Cash. Humans have no real loyalty, so they ruin the overall success (here of bitcoin and altcoins like Litecoin and ETH) by giving in to short-term gratification. This is what Elliot Waves is all about but you rarely have situations where two stocks are directly opposed and one is actively out to destroy the other. The effect isn't usually overwhelming, but in times of changing tides it can be.
We shall see...i appreciate your feedback @jojof and @johnnystimit. I am here to learn and come up with my own TA. I can't follow along and not try!
What I meant is, I think the last wave is rather LONG, not that it's in the wrong place ;)
I so hate elongated lows...
We're definitely in a typical Christmas Market though, where the bulls are being attacked by Reindeer Of Peace ;)
Thanks for the clarification. I think I drew the last wave as more as a trend movement line :) I hope to see the price fall to around 10k on GDAX...let's see!
I expect about 9.5 to 10... but maybe that'll never come.
As long as it will rise again it really doesn't matter.
Keep dreaming, train is on the way to 20k again
@haejin could you do an update on BTG ? it has been a while and the coin seems to be hibernating.
Nice!
Fuck! Was really hoping for that correction...
You and I both my dude. I exchanged to fiat waiting to buy low and missed some really big gains. Some serious regret and FOMO right now. On me I guess. Think I need a break from this.
And you are getting your correction. Well done for using your brain instead of following strangers advices ;)
if you are a HODLer, then have no fear. This small crash is nothing compared to the potential profit you can make.
You are right, as expected Support for BTC is $11700 levels and short covering on cards upto $17750 levels. At these levels wait for next move , if break up then again touch $20500. And down side will be in Range $17750 -$11300.
I know in advance that BTC will be in range of $17750 -$11300 till it will not break upward $17750. This BTC hype is big one ,so it will not break down side range of $11300, and will be in Range for few days, and then move upward towards $20500 next range.
༼ つ ◕-◕ ༽つ lord haejin ༼ つ ◕-◕ ༽つ
༼ つ ◕-◕ ༽つpls bless me with profits ༼ つ ◕-◕ ༽つ
Haejin I appreciate your efforts to enlighten us and teach us but shouldn’t you use other indicators to support your analysis? EW count ok but what about MACD, Volume, Rsi, etc. ? These are pretty simple to use and give nice indications. It was obvious that BTC was not ready for a bull run yet. You should be careful because many people follow you now.
Thank god i got out of a all positions 6 hours ago, it was all very clear.
Changes his story every two mins lol
Would you prefer a stubborn individual to provide you information?
I kind of agree with you,there should have been an explanation why he changed his mind..it is his right to change but an explanation would have been also educational.
He owes you nothing... You talk as if explanation was due. Buy the books, study the tutorials, and be glad he keeps updating his work and analysis after all the hatred he's been enduring for the past few days. This chart is informative enough for anyone who knows what @Haejin's talking about.
In other words, why put in 5 paragraphs what can be told in three sentences? That's called efficiency, and he is quite good at it.
Chill man...he doesnt owe anybody anything..however after making 4-5 posts with another dip expectation, I just want to better understand his mind..no book will give me his 17 years of experience in the end..also I still see that another dip is possible,want to understand where I do wrong.
@lorderk Hey man, you better get on your knees and warm up them cheeks. He owes you NOTHING. Blah blah blah...
Kidding aside, I am with you. I know it's not from a place of entitlement, but of curiosity. It's a matter of "Hey, X was said, now it was changed.. I want to understand why". Anybody can chime in, as other members often do, to help shed some light. The followers of this page have gotten a bit... odd. Missing the sub-1000 follower days.
At any rate, I'm all about taking it back to that positivity. Let us all realize that we are here for a common goal, and help each other if we can! I wish you all MASSIVE profits :)
@lorderk. This is a prediction, a probability, not an absolute. Where are the 4-5 posts with another dip expectation? Pls show. Considered yourself lucky that you got an extra update, a prewarning. It take time to do all that, you know. "This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.** ". Didn't even mention that he would answer any questions. lol.
Posts are all there but I guess am coming off as negative...i know there is so much dirt against him but this is not one of them,just a genuine interest.best of luck
Take the z ~time to learn the EWave principles as @haejin tries to engage you to complete. Links to tutorials presented. Any experience with tutorials or prior videos & posts and you should be able to answer your complaint question yourself @lorderk . I'm compelled to assist you but PLEASE not so lazy next time perhaps, however subject IS complicated so apologies if you tried but are just confused...reason for NEED to alter analysis = the wave 4 high forecast was Violated to Upside therefore couldn't be W4 high any longer, Right? He also explains that IF NEW analysis IS correct then this rally wave needs to EXCEED the current wave 3 LOW...so there's the next confirm or non-confirm to watch. ~Time for tutorials friends ♨ Great trading!
Thanks!,I really did try to understand..his current wave 2 seemed to me like an impulse rather then a wave..I do not challenge the master,just trying to learn..thanks for the explanation also!
See my YouTube channel
Mate,you are good no doubt but your time is too expensive for me.
@financefreedom. Then why don't you go do your post instead of coming here. I know what I am getting here. I am not a newbie in trading. Just that you know. Who would come around and make meaningless little side notes People know what gun powder you have as soon as you open your mouth.
provides updates on probable price pathways every two minutes**
FTFY bud.
They are two main probability for bitcoin in the short term, huge correction on the way or correction done (less huge but still huge of course) and direction is up.
could hit $8k
You are skeptical of his method? Just wandering because I see that you do TA also...
@financefreedom. Where is your chart, what do you see? Let see your chart and talk about it.
@financefreedom @lorderk you guys can read and chart all you want, but the market still remains unpredictable, if it were predictable it wouldn't even be a market. He gives you the ship and heading but you yourself still need to know how to operate that ship. You have to be able to vaigate and change when things come up. A storm can hit at anytime and if you're not prepaired you have let yourself down not @haejin. When the storm moves you update, but it's up to you to see it for yourself.
@demonklyd is right, he owes you nothing. If you don't make gains or trust the source then you find one that you can trust. It so happens @haejin works for a lot of us here because we're prepaired to take the ship into our own hands.
We haven't seen a convincing enough breakout with good volume yet imo. I believe the WXY correction is still in play which could lead to lower lows. Caution is advised.
Hello Haejin, in the morning Post you said ( the next wave should be purple wave iii of white v. This means a potential still for one more lower low to finish the correction). what change now why you believe its will go up and not finishing the correction
The key word is "should". You can never predict the future, only possible price paths. :)
Market showed that it is ready to go up.
Hi Haejin,
Do you think these fractal patterns indicate we are soon to be finished with the correction?
Wow...
But I think it‘s still on the last surge before your first prospected dip.
Like John Mc Afee said I will it my di... if Bitcoin is going to 26 000USD till end of this year. Please bet me guys this is never going to happen.
Please check my Analysis for Bitcoin.
I'm confused. Wasn't there talk about another correction down to the 10k-ish mark in another post? I'm still new to this. Also would people recommend to sell xvg to USDT and hold it and buy the dip or change xvg to btc and hold it?
HODL Verge, it´s going vertical and you should never sell while it goes vertical!
What about selling like 1/3 of ur verge holdings to lock in a decent profit (now for example) and then buy again once it has dipped? @live-and-learn
that's your coins, do whatever you want with them. Don't wait for people to tell you what to do with your money!...
That's what I do all the time
hold xvg
@waitbutnow. Hi, nobody can tell you what to do. Only you can decide. There are only probabilities, no absolute in trading. Haejin is warning you that correction might be done in BTC, not absolute. Ladder in (buy back in stages). Since you said you are new, best is to learn the tutorials. Carefully read Haejin's post. Learning to trade takes lots of time. I am holding my Verge. I don't worry about little dips. The trend is up. That's just my opinion. Pls don't come back and hold me accountable. You make your decision.
Man I dont think so. Wall street is off for the next three days so you'll see it blow up some. Just like it has since late friday. But come tuesday watch out. If you want to hold it until late monday and then sell before the crooked boyz get back to work again on tuesday that should be good.
i see this small wedge as a continuation to the bearish trend. can we see 9k in the coming day ?
I see it as well. I believe it'll dip to 11k but not 9.
Good point, I updated your idea. https://www.tradingview.com/x/9PQbDDbM/ btw how do you add photos to the comments?
Thank you.
possible inverted head & shoulders incoming? Volume must confirm the trend, but this may look like this, thus consolidating Haejin's forecast in this very article. "For your due diligence" only! :)
Oof. Charts can be interpeted in SO many ways. Haejin would say, "but the tendency stays the same, upwards" - right now, downward stasis is the rule though. I would propose that we're in a typical Christmas Market where the Bulls have limited power because they're being escorted away from the bears by reindeer, to take cover from trucks of peace behind concrete barriers.
It's current year !
Is it the time to buy or wait for the dip till 10k? Please help.
Get and read the books. Learn patience and take the long view.. Nobody becomes a daytrader overnight. Nobody honest here is recommending daytrading here either.
One way of making $1 million as a day trader is to start with $2 million.
The associated joke: Q: "How does one make a small fortune in the stock market?" A: "Start with a large one!"
Yes, I have plans to learn this long weekend. I will read for sure but now I didn't understand the terminologies of this post. So please help me understand. Buy now or wait?
watch the tutorials!!
Classic!
@hunk9. Ask yourself, is the trend up? If it is, ladder in. Buy whenever you are ready and buy some more lower.
@hunk9. Don't worry, when you have questions, just ask. Somebody will answer you. Terminology is not easy, but very helpful once you learned it. Good luck.
Ty @haejin . Please post on twitter at the same time for every post !!!! There is no notification here !!
You've probably missed the 0x flight! ;-)
yup . How did you get the notification ??
@abhicrypto. You need to get your twitter set up to get notifications. Nobody else can do everything for you.
Steemian should buy, after christmas or new year, this will never stay down for long...
This would be great jump! Let’s get these profits!!!!!! Whoooo. BTC never stays down for long
wahh cool his blog. I like. very good votes. success always for you yes.
Thank you for the update Haejin!
So if I'm reading this correctly, we would need to see a higher high of roughly $15,500+ in order to confirm that correction is over (since you're using Bitfinex). But that hasn't happened yet. Therefore, there was no confirmation of Wave C yet.
We had 15600 today. Haejin sees it as the end of a count of waves, and one is rarely sure how to exactly count waves as they fall into many sub-parts... if you see the momentary move as an upward triangle, we're waiting for a breakout - likely upward, but you know - shit happens. So the green highs would ideally be higher, but at this time they're lower...
Bullish my ass!
I said, 'but this time they're lower', and they got ever more low and then things went downwards again as I can see upon waking up. Not as low as I would have liked, though, but low enough to be glad I got out before we went to bed last night ;)
Coffeee !!
They‘ve been mch lower than now all night. I need to sleep. Lol. Will lock my positions.
quite interestingly, a study done by high education experts, thank you for the various advantages of your skills
@haejin
Thank you!
Thanks haijin
Thanks for the update... Watching this closely today.....
@haejin you are a mastter of Elliott waves analysis!
Marry Christmas and happy new year!!
Organise a TAF guys alliance, A list of people in Technical analysis of crypto currencies.
Read more here.
You are Upvoted and Followed. My contribution is minimal because of very small SP but you have my moral support in your work.
I hope that this witch hunt will eventually stop and that common sense will prevail.
So? Should we take our money from altcoins? Plz answer me bro.
BTC seems it has passed the sholder line... should go up ...
We love ya man!! ... Merry Christmas & God Bless!
thanks Haejin, stone the crows!! bought back into BTC at 3pm(ish) GMT then 5pm GMT slung it all into Bitshares cause I thought I saw and inverted H&S against BTC and there has been a lot of green candles since then :) :)
Sorry my english is bad.what did u mean? You sold all bitshare to back btc or you will buy bitshare?
Try counting on 4hr instead on this one.
I see it‘s heading towards a dip
@haejin is this the correction going on? BTC at 12900.
at 15ish... thinknig its done...
w.e hodl bts forever til 2019
I would, but was counting on buying btc to pour into alts...they‘ll soar in jan :/
Kind of agree...
fuck i just bought back in
Sell now if you can get out with a small loss.
Damn, i‘m at 10% loss, but think it‘s still worth it to buy the dip...
I‘mready to sell...
Maybe wait 1 or 2 hours for Asia
Almost breaking even. Will watch for 30 min, if break even doesn‘t come i‘ll sell. Thanks!
Don't sell. It will go back up, and you will regret it later. The value of bitcoin hasn't gone down, theres still a limited supply. These are just normal waves and cycles. Making decision based on emotions is never a good idea. Just HOLD, this is a normal correction.
Thanks. You are right. I am holding all I have. Will just buy more. Thanks for the sound advice!
Looks like @Haejin's initial call of another wave left in the correction was the correct one. It looks like its on the third subwave of the last correction wave. This third wave should be the longest one based on Elliot wave theory.
By longest are we thinking hours, days, weeks? Just curious. I know it will eventually go back up, just wondering how long I should wait to buy more. Im thinking 11K?
Hours to days. Once the remaining down waves start to complete that should be easier to tell. Don't try to time the bottom though. If I ride a wave down and sell say at 14k and think it is going down to 10k, I set the limits at 11k. Better to gain 3k and not 4k than to try for 4k and get 0, I think. But follow your own instincts.
Another good analyst I follow just confirmed https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@srezz/express-market-update. Always good to do due diligence from several sources, and @Haejin's here is one of the finest and was indeed one of those who originally called this correctly earlier before this change.
BTC & LTC down again.
You guys are all nuts, you need to buy in on the dip and leave it, it dipped a day or so ago, you got the notice from Haejin, you take some profits and ladder in the dip. If your buys get picked up your way ahead. You then wait and take some profits on the uptrend hopefully near the top. Some guy up further in the comments is saying should he sell his xvg and buy the dip. If you bought verge and are at massive profits it makes sense to take some at some point. But it's arguably the hottest coin on the market right now in a massive uptrend. Your just going to lose profit day trading it. Fundstrat's Tom Lee announced on CNBC he was buying the dip, one whale leaves a new one comes in. You can't be scared of a paper loss.
https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt
https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt
Sir, could you please analyze QTUM? I would really appreciate it
is it possible that the recent sell off was initiated by a whale selling off millions after shorting a bitcoin futures contract?