Bitcoin (BTC) Morning Update: A Third Alternate Count

in #bitcoin6 years ago

SUMMARY

Change is the only Universal Constant. I had described not too long ago about a very famous Guru who fell into the trap of analysis myopia by calling for Dow 400 crash from March of 2009 to 2014 while the market just roasted all his permabear calls. It wasn't pretty as he was simply unwilling to change his views with the change in market trend. This was a severely important lesson for me just by observing this man's slow train crash for almost five years straight!

To that end, IF my primary count and direction becomes less so compared to an alternate, I change my analysis, without reservations! This has saved my bacon countless number of times. It doesn't mean to become wishy washy without a spine; but rather, be on guard from falling into the myopia trap.

Bitcoin (BTC) overnight action has about returned price to the bottom support line of the triangle. As discussed yesterday on the triangle a,b,c,d,e and the bear flag potentials; I'm adding a third for a zig zag (5,3,5) type of correction. This correction couples the bear flag pattern but can act ahead of the E wave. The E wave had been discussed as the last wave for the bear flag.

The below chart shows the didactic draw out of the zig zag correction as red waev A haveing five subwaves; B having three subwaves and C having five subwaves. These subwaves are then labeled onto the price chart. IF the lower lin of the triangle support is breached and $11,600 is reached; then this Zig Zag could be in effect. The bottom triangle line has held as support well so far, but each time it is hit, it weakens. It's currently being hit for the fourth time. Price action today could show whether it holds as is expected. Now, a bull wick is potential in that price briefly pierces the lower line causing many to panic sell and soon afterwards, price returns right back inside the triangle. Such is the way the market gets rid of the weak hands quickly prior to resuming the original up trend. A Bull Wick would be welcome!

I've drawn horizontal lines for additional landing zones for the bottom of red C wave. These had also be used during the June/July and the early Fall corrections.

The key here is to not panic but perceive it from the stance of confidence and awareness. You are now aware of this scenario and that should not induce fear but rather keep the panic away. IF this scenario takes place, having cash at hand is always ideal! In my blog post that discussed a model portolio, it was suggested that 10% to 15% of a portfolio should be in the form of cash which could be deployed at such bargain basement prices following an a,b,c correction. Why? The best time to buy is at the terminal end of an a,b,c correction!

Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
@haejin's Trading Nuggets
Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?

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Legal Disclaimer: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.

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Nice analysis! Can you please make ASAP a EOS chart analysis? Thanks in advance!

come on dude. after that growth... CORRECTION!

It's finishing the first wave (A) of the correction.

EOS

P.S. only my opinion

Of course.
Time it gets on with it - or it will take forever

Bitcoin will retest 20 k before 30 March 2018

is this your chart?

why Sir david?

I really enjoy your comments and analysis. You bring a great counterpoint to Haejin's already-excellent TA.

The only thing EOS needs is time and affordable financing. EOS coin is a little wavy, so I can not imagine what its price will be in the near future. While writing this article, there is an EOS price of $ 10, a market value of almost $ 6 billion, and a $ 24 million hourly volume of $ 600 million. @liondani

Not enough volume, that's why. Lots of the little chickens have gotten scared these last two weeks and are now warily watching from afar, while everybody tells them it will soon go straight up (not just EOS), but the volume is lacking, so it clearly doesn't. That scares them some more, and so the circle closes and the market remains choppy.
Not a time to buy yet, even the chickens know that.
Even experienced traders know and are now sitting on their hands in fiat.
Becoz, what Haejin says means :
IF 11.600 gets hit once again, BTC might finally REALLY go down to 9500 or 8000, and that may either mean alts will bloom or that the scare will infect them, at least for a day or two...
Everything's down at the moment except Bitcoin Gold and ETH Classic, and a few small pumps. I'm waiting for a general uptrend to begin, and that means it must begin with Bitcoin. Most altcoin breakouts these last days got interrupted and didn't play out, no follow-up. Why would I bother. Yawn.
February maybe, but lets keep posting a lot about this and that, maybe we can talk it up ;)

Yes-yes, this is okay for day trading, but most people here want to buy a coin and then see it shoot up and triplicate their funds.
And then, the next.
But they also want to lower their risk and therefore spread money over several coins, as if that made any logical sense - oh I guess it's either obvious, or hard to explain.

So they want high risk coins that don't ever tank, ideally, either that or nothing, and so Haejin is spending his energy telling them which coins will likely do their bidding sooner rather than later.

He tends to be optimistic, but then he thinks in long time intervals...
it's therapy, keeping the spirits high, an that;s okay as it actually DOES stabilize the market. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
We have a guy on these threads who always writes about "Massive Prophets," no idea if he's being sarcastic - but we sure have them here ;)

If you just day-trade, you can forget about all that and simply do your thang every day... I'm inclined to agree.
Once we have some stability, I'll get into that again, I wish BTC would tank real hard and be done with it NOW instead of doing these gay ups and downs...
Basically, when day trading it doesn't matter, you win two out of three and that means you constantly profit.

I just like it better when there's a general upward trend, so I don't have to place lots of stops or go into fiat overnight. I'm paranoid ;)

Thanks for the summary. What is your approach to these market cycles? Is the only reason these cryptos go up every year in their "market cycles" that the entire space is going up in marketcap right?

Compared to stock market, this is a new emerging asset class and every year it seems since 14' it's been gaining more and more speculative traders. So these charts behaving the way they do make sense, every year getting more and more extreme.

Any thoughts on the space and why these charts play out so high every year?

Yes, in essence the market cap dpes it, but theres also a certain amount of crystallized hystery going in, the FOMO of the masses - or in other words, market cap + speed = enhanced value. The enhancement being subject to inflation, rates eventually start to fall once the momentum wears off.
This is why the Dimons of this world are having serious doubts, as there are no producers behind crypto the way the see it - like there's (metal) miners actively destroying the environment, using up as much energy as Ireland, to extract the ore and steel workers turning it into the stuff others make useless gadgets from that eventually end up in a landfill.

They lack the flexibility of mind to ask themselves why Disney is a successful enterprise by creating dreams, only because that question never arose since they were born.
Disney was already there, it worked, like the FED and Allah, and so these things as well as Disney were legit. Sigh.
However they do understand landfills and appreciate the intrinsic value of landfills... so do I, as they well illustrate the human economic circle and how it really works.

Please explain what you mean by "space" - in my thoughts, the real issue seems to be time, or call it psychotime ;)

EOS has very big potential to grow ! So since today its 15% down i would even buy some :)

But you could say that for almost any coin at this time.
Literally any.

Not all coins have potential. Many are just clones!

No-no - I mean the top ones, not the junk. The ones with potential should all go up, but people are scared and weary at the moment, morale needs to come back.

Picking Up :)

I'm strongly considering exiting BTC once and for all. Perhaps this is as high as it's ever going to get.

100% guarantee that is not true...But feel free to expose your weak hands.

I've always wondered what your thoughts were on the Robert Prechters horrible call during the biggest bull run ever. He most certainly is a brilliant man, but yes he got tunnel vision. He actually cost me a ton of money because of that. It was a big learning lesson for me as well...and I've always been torn because I continue to believe in the elliott wave patterns. This was nice to see you recognize this and always be thinking about alternatives. I appreciate your TA @haejin.. I've been with you since pretty much day 1.

Wow, could go down to 11K, if so, weakness begets more weakness

Time to invest ☝💸

Bitcoin is on sale 😀 People are happy when a 50-inch television is on sale. Be happy when BTC is at a discount price

haha thats a good one :D and also very true ! Use the time to buy when its on discount because soon it will be double :))

Thanks for the awareness, but sadly the average investor is going to panick. The next step is really going to weed out the amatuers and the pros.

Agreed

Pros don't sit on their hands, believe me. Pros also sell when a coin free-falls, to catch it at a lower rate. You can call that a panic sell of course, no problem. The panic seller who sells at 12500 and gets back in at 11400 is better off than the hodler who waited it out and missed that little deal, no matter if the coin in question rebounds a day later or half a year later. Thing is, he has to get back in and not sit and watch wide-eyed from afar.

Good point. I try to have cash on hand so I don't have to sell my coin to catch a bargain. But I see your point that you can profit more by selling your hoard during a free fall.

I usually have 30-60% of my funds in cash, preferably in Euros (dollar isn't programmed to rise, ask the FED).
Frequent ins and outs are better than relying on a coin to do what one expects, but it's f course also more of a job ;)
But why would someone ride out a dip of days or weeks if they can make a deal of it ? To be able to say "I'm not a weak hand, I'm a hodler ?" I'm not sure if such people exist, there will be many who are simply indecisive and therefore prefer to ride it out, which is understandable if you're unprepared.

I normally just buy every level of the free fall when it comes to my lovely btc

Good. So if you adapt to this being choppy sideways market on the whole and stop dreaming of 20k for awhile, you can keep earning a lot of money day trading. Just be alert, to jump out an in again in case of a major drop.
Learn from the victors, act like an algo ;)

The big question is will the alt coins also take a hit...

I don't think we'll see a "6 months of drought" scenario... these scenarios have happened to bitcoin in the past, but there's so many people getting into crypto...
plus, instititutions.
It just doesn't rhyme.
But with the lack of faith right now, it's still possible that we get another reaal dip, w came from 19k down to 11k, that was $8000 - form 14k to 8k would only be 6.000, nit that bad. But of course most alts would initially suffer...

In the end, Haejin is right. It's a healthy correction, at least for Bitcoin. If everybody just stayed calm, it wouldn't be a problem and when it's over, we would be rising again.
However people are anything but calm, and there's quite a few, likely less here but elsewhere, who came into crypto on advice like "buy this, it's hot!"
Binance registers 240k new people in one hour, others 100k a day, that's still crazy...
So things are a bit more complicated than usual.
I think many of these folks are still transferring funds and waiting to make a decision...

Being flexible and able to change view accordingly is another important aspect of TA, I believe. Thanks for your teaching.

Good post, as usual, thanks @Haejin!

@Haejin: This Alternative looks like the one I posted two days ago:

Bildschirmfoto 2018-01-14 um 13.52.57.png

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@vonbuelo/bitcoin-btc-elliot-waves-bull-cycle

I don't think this is how it will go.

You think we'll be in an eight month bear market ?

I think in 7 to 10 days it will pick up again.

I sure hopes so... sounds likely too, but that's exactly what I was thinking 7 or 10 days ago.

Starting the 21st people will get there fiat money and invest again in the 1 coin they know the best: bitcoin.

Okay, but why on the 21st, I see the 15th and the 31st as more likely ?

Oh my Haejin, I sure hope this correction is finito, can't handle this much longer...

Updates to http://www.cryptocurrencytrends.info . It's all about Haejin, and How to Connect! Come See What's New!

I think btc will survive today
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5g4zDn1s/

Thank you so much, Haejin, for your continued hard work and terrific analysis. I signed up for steemit just to upvote you. <3

Could it be it? Weekends for bitcoin tend to be slow down before back up.

It feels like our friend is in UTI mode, very critical cardiac rating but will survive. I may be completely wrong though since I'm just starting.

CD wave is a 3 wave not a 5 wave.

yes it tested the triangle resistence... but... never say never with btc. 500$ can drop in 2 minutes.

Hmmm, but couldn't the B for the ABC be where the C of the red line is? And from there it starts an 12345 to finich the C wave of CD?

Can you do analysis of Bitcoin Gold BTG. It's chart reminds me so much of BCH .

pfaaaaa fu..... btc is testing the triangle resistence...

Panic Panic ! :))

What is your thoughts on how a bitcoin correction to 6000 will affect the altcoin market? How hard will we altholders be affected you think? Mvh Big fan.

tl ;dr version : bitcoin could go up....or it could go down.

yes but now you know where to look before it goes down.

and it's more like

TL ; dr : 55% going up 30% going up then down. 15% going down down!

늘 올려주시는 정보가 힘이됩니다 ㅠㅠ 정말 감사합니다!!

For what it's worth I see the below also as the potential sign of a nice correction. I have just started reading the books recommended above, and just read the section about narrowing triangle of a fifth wave (so I may be searching for the sign at the moment) and it meaning a potential harsh correction because of a too fast move in the way of the trend too quickly, so it's needing a nice correction. In my opinion btc did rise astronomically last year and such this type of correction may make sense after a year that seen btc rise more than 1800% last year for the year from around 800 to start the year to as high as 18k at the near end of the year. Take the chart for what you will:

It would be nice for someone that knows more than I to comment on the chart. @haejin

BTC seems to love that $13,600 mark or so. Been there a lot lately.

감사합니다..XRP에대한 정보도 올려주세요 항상 응원합니다..!!

stop spamming your chart and actually explain what's going on and what people should consider taking action with.

좋은 정보감사합니다 ..XRP리플에대한 의견도 빠른시일 내에듣고 싶습니다..항상 응원합니다...

Haejin , could yo help me understand why so many billions leave the market so quickly, last week it was supposedly the fear of Korea shutting down exchanges. Could whales be @ play manipulating the market? Many thanks for all you share :)

It has a lot to do with the masses who have just got into the area not understanding the ebb and flow of the markets. They came in at 18k and now see it hovering around 13k. Panic and just want to keep selling to minimize their losses. Time will pass, we shall make money, they will be sick with anger, and life will resume as normal.

ABC correction $8,000 - $6,000

Interesante tu análisis el cambia de tenencia, gracias

Wow that's not looking so good... Thanks for the update

you get crazy views on her bro haha!! Everyone loves your analysis!! :D

Excellent is time to investing!

Great post as always Haejin! :) Can I get some Steemit love on my latest post? :)

have not remembered you SAFEX

Today is a red day for coinmarket and also a nice opportunity to buy more of something you missed out ! Especially bitcoin i feel like next week it could pump seriously.

Cool, another buy opportunity!

You're saying it's going to fall to 8000 dollars?

oh my goddd please dont

$8,000 - $6,000

I thought this was the original alternate? :) Sad to say for those this upsets, that it would make me happy. Cash in hand.
edit maybe it was somethign I drew up.. this correction has taken years it feels like, who can remember. Bouncing strongly though. Probably wants to just meander even more.

I appreciate your consistent level headed analysis. When you said "You are now aware of this scenario" it really goes to show that by solely being aware of an option can prove beneficial to your portfolio as well as your health. Those words sat well with me, so thank you for that.

good job @haejin . .thanks for sharing

I hope to 30K!

thank you

Every accident is fatal adverse changes in human life. Article by the person being discussed. I hope that your service completely healthy. And the speed of his life that comes back as before.
Expectations.

Thank you, Haejin. Would you please do a BTS update? Is BTS one of your core holdings? Thank you

Yes! $Correction $0.20 or lower..

Thank you, I closed my margin loan. 🙏

차트 분석 잘 봤습니다. 당분간 인고의 시간이 오려나 보군요.

Almost the same as 1 year ago in january.... guys look at the chart from jan 2017. The look at the current chart with a 1 month period, does it look so bad? No it doesnt and it will start to pump soon again, no worries, Great time to buy:

#BTC looks Phishy to me at the moment as its movement is not confirmed currenctly it is at its downtrend may be it breakout soon but nothing confirmed about #BTC

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