SUMMARY
Elliott Wave analysis states that a news or an event shall arrive to justify the forecast and not the reverse.
What truly moves the market? Sentiment. What is sentiment? Fear and Greed....an unmistaken aspect of duality.
There is another famous saying: "What are words, but symbols of symbols, hence; twice removed from reality." Thus if words are used to describe our feelings, emotions or state of mood or state of mind, then it is a twice removed reflection of thought which is cyclical. Technical Analysis attempts to measure the cyclical nature of thoughts. Just because TA tools are twice removed from reality does not mean they are useless. They actually have surprising level of superior accuracy than fundamental analysis of news and events.
A cynic would say that Technical Analysis is near perfect only in measuring the past. True but they are also misinformed. An accomplished artist in any endeavor always stands out by their evidence of performance. The population of Technical Analysts is no different than our current wealth spectrum. We have the many poor which is equivalent to near always wrong Technical Analysts, there is the middle class or equivlent to good but not great TAs and the very wealthy, the top 0.01% who just stand out, and these would be similar to the near perfect Technincal Analysis Gurus. They are the Mozarts of TA, a rare gem of talent. These giants of Technical Analysis like WD Gann, R.N. Elliott, John Magee and Robert D Edwards left their legacies so we students can also aspire. They taught and evidenced that TA is an art and allows a high degree of accurate forecasting.
Many think that fundamental news drive price direction. Or events such as an upgraded mining algorithm, higher levels of adoption, government intervention or a myriad of other "reasons" cause prices to either rise or fall. I disagree. I believe that news and events are the results of sentiment. Sentiment does not follow the news and events but rather the news and events follow sentiment. Therefore, greater accuracy lies in first measuring sentiment. Elliott Waves and Technical Chart Pattern Recognition is designed to do exactly this: Measure the ebs and flows of sentiment.
Elliott Waves, in the hands of a seasoned practitioner, can help discern how sentiment might lead prices. This is what I mean by Elliott Waves allowing us to take a peak around the corner. It CAN NOT BE PERFECT as at the end of the day, EW still only charts the reflection of sentiment, but since sentiment leads fundamentals, its forecasts are closer and more accurate than fundamental analysis.
Here is a link that exemplfies and dissects the question: Does the Federal Reserve Lead the Interest Rates or Follow it?
https://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/Do-Interest-Rates-follow-the-Federal-Reserve-or-do-interest-rates-lead-and-the-fed-follows
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Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
Would you be my trader? Deal?
I need an iceman like you taking care of my Stuff!
LOL! Once you buy the books and become proficient in EW, you shall be critiquing my counts!
IMO the best and most comprehensive book on the subject is "The Socionomic Theory of Finance" by Robert Prechter. Not much on the rules and guidelines of EW, but it definitely goes into depth on what causes this socionomic phenomenon, even parts of the brain that regulate the behavior.
Yes, very good book! Socionomics is another manifestation of sentiment. He has his yearly Socionomics conferences.
The only thing is, that it's still twice removed from reality.
Great thanks to all our teachers. great and small.
Please let me know if you have any crypto you'd like analyzed!
Kind Regards,
@haejin
Hey haejin, so far BTC really looks like its been following this ascending triangle, whats the probability of a impulse or a bullish movement after this?
Last time you said that you would prefer to rely on the Elliot wave counts in a scenario like this...
Well the Ew waves are pointing to a bullish outlook.
What else would you add to this drawing/ TA to make it complete?
I get this far but I cant seem to understand what else to do?
Thanks!!
https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/59ff8779034e0/
update, I noticed this smaller triangle but I am not sure if this is just me looking for patterns, it seems to make sense without pushing it much. whats the deal here?
Could this be a bull trap where it dips out of the form and shoots back up to ATHs??
What do you think of what's going on with Curecoin?
This was exactly the question I had in mind. Seems very interesting if the TA analysis can determine sentiment which overrides news. It would almost make news or "releases" insignificant if market sentiment is already heavy one or another. Thanks!
haejin Could you please just take a quick look to ARK?
I am interested in the coin, but I would like you TA point of view too ;)
Glad you elaborated on this idea..Id noticed the concept in previous posts you've made. Not sure I completely agree yet but appreciate the postings!
You must come fully to the side of Technical Analysis...the force awaits!.
Thanks Haejin, I am so happy to find you and trust me you are as my Guru for these analysis, I am going to purchase Book that you recommended. Verge is doing good as per your analysis. However; I couldn't purchase "Verge" as my money has been stucked in CVC.
Do you give paid service so that I can made good portfolio and learn deeper trading Technics. Could you please give your insight for price of CVC if brokeout (As per your last analysis it may go up to $5 to $6).
Please contact me via Twitter @haejin_ctypto
When I finish reading both of the books, I will definitely make it a point to schedule some one on one for my portfolio. Just waiting on $xvg to moon to free up funds.
I wish you MASSIVE profits!!
i'm actually a farmer and a businessman. but, wow, now i want to learn how to trade! i've been losing in this crypto game for a while, maybe this will change in the near future
Please purchase the books recommended. The links are at bottom of blog post.
i would love to, but there's no kindle version. i'm from the philippines, i don't know if the book will reach me at all (long story). but i will look for it! thanks for the recommendation. i will be practicing your tutorials and upvoting your posts every chance i have.
Yes there is. I have it.
wow. ok!
back to school!