Twenty years ago, I thought so too. After that many years of Technical Analysis, learning from every failure possible, I've learned that Sentiment precedes any news or event. Yes, from a Newtonian perspective of cause and effect, it seems inviolatable.
I wrote an essay on this topic, perhaps you might find it interesting.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/essay-is-technical-analysis-a-quantum-event
Interesting article, I was checking your Groestle coin analysis and when the price came down to lowest point that you predict it started to rise due to segwit2x cancellation! and I hope the rest of the analysis come true too :))
I wish you MASSIVE profits!
I have read your essay before. I have also read some popuar science books about quantum phisics and I wrote a thesis about fractals from a graphic point of view, so I have some background. I am trying to say that if sentiment precedes any news or event then without news or event it is asleep and it waits for the news to triger him. If you look at the bitcoin chart (last week) then you see someting not natural happened yesterday. I would compare canceling segwit to throwing a stone into a calm lake. It creates the waves that interfere with natural waves made by blows of the wind for a couple of seconds until situation gets back to normal.
I too went through similar arguments. Sentiment begets the news and never the reverse. This is why Elliott Wave states that news or events shall arrive to justify the forecast, and never the reverse.
Here is an article that might help:
https://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/Look-Whos-Leading-the-Way-on-Interest-Rates-Its-NOT-the-Fed
The reason why sentiment drives the prices and not news is because news triggers the sentiment that's already there. If there is no sentiment there is no price increase even if the news is big; and we have seen this in situations like Cloakcoin where the new site didn't help. Where as, a mere article or web update can drive a coin like EOS up- everyone knows of EOS being an Ethereum killer but sometimes we need to be reminded.
Indeed, the decision to cancel segwit2x did not happen in a bubble, it too was driven by outside influences.
Personally I was expecting a correction after segwit as coins would go back from private wallets towards exchanges, supply would increase and btc would be sold to rebuy alts that were sold in the hope of free coins. So it happened a few days early...
Apparently you did not read my blog link on Sentiment being a Quantum Event.
At this point, to each its own pathway.
This is pretty much what I agree with. Glad someone brought this up.
I understand you might get bored with similar arguments, but I know most of your stuff, and the staff you recomend. I also know statements you copy paste everywhere. Thanks anyway.
Perhaps sentiment manifests action, which creates news, twice removed from reality.
Once Bitten Twice shy....mhmmm..good Quote and Song,...Mhhmmmhhmmm....
Thank You Kindly
Then, to each its own. I wish you MASSIVE profits!