do you speak from experience, are you one of the LN developers?
Have you sent/recieved money via LN?
What is going to be the original impetus for its success, will exchanges be the first to adopt it, or is that too risky? What will be the first major entity to use it as standard? It's not like bitcoin has a ton of vendors to do this, other than maybe Overstock.com who has its OWN crypto-ambitions now.
Ive tested it on the test net sending a few transactions. Also seen people test it out as well with the fake starbucks store. Exchanges will most likely not be the first to adopt it, more than likely something smaller and easier to implement. I mean some smaller exchanges might but we havent been able to get all exchanges to agree on segwit yet. I think with lightning we will eventually see many more merchants start accepting bitcoin because it will be hypothetically possible to do microtransactions. Cant know for sure though. The devs also need to have a wallet that is easy to use or wallets need to implement it as well.