I think that the market cap is important to keep tabs on what is really happening. If money is actually moving out of crypto then we are looking at a prolonged bear market like you describe.
I believe we are on our way to recovery and if we can break past the $160B-170B market cap zone then the next stop is $200B. We dipped down to $134.75B MC at our recent low... Already back up to $156.68B.
I think there are some big whales messing with people too :P
I completely agree with your point of view. To be honest, the reason why I made the current deduction the way it is, is because BTC more or less controls the entire crypto sentiments. Therefore, it going up/down will trigger a similar reaction to the altcoins.
But yes, you are absolutely correct on the fact that if we cross 160B-170B market cap, or 4700 dollars in BTC, then the next stop is pretty much at 5500 dollar in BTC if you ask me!