This is another article in my "opinions are like arseholes, everybody has one" series.
Basically, I'd like to step back and muse about what is it about Bitcoin that drove people to value it so much that it hit a $20.000 peak less than 6 months ago; and I'd like to do it in the context of "everybody who wanted some Bitcoin, already got it."
Right about now, in April 2018, it seems to me like just about everyone in IT has some cryptocurrencies stashed somewhere (and that's a crucial part: stashed - not actually used and circulating in this brave new economy of ours), and especially now, in the "dip" phase, where Bitcoin is valued much less than half of what it was at the peak, everybody who didn't buy some at the time of peak craziness, can presumably afford some right now. And the same goes for a much wider group of people than "IT guys." Other cryptocurrencies are in a similar position. The HODL mantra is strong, and people who have gone into cryptocurrencies strictly to profit from the bubbles have taken notice.
Bitcoin's trading volume is almost down to mid-2017 levels:
In the few months which have been described as hosting the biggest financial bubble in history (not true, but a catchy idea nevertheless), cryptocurrencies have gotten an insane media exposure and mindshare across the board. Back in the day, only the tech-savvy knew what Bitcoin was, then it exploded up to the point that literally everyone was talking about it for a few months. And I mean everyone - you'd have to be in a really shitty situation (as in "no water, no electricity and bombs are falling on a regular schedule from the sky") to avoid hearing about it.
But now... if you wanted it, you bought it. If you want more of it -- especially if you bought it at the peak -- you've just bought more of it. Since instructions on how and where to buy Bitcoin (& others) have been popping out in everything from daily news to fashion magazines, it's pretty unlikely that, if you can afford it, and want it, you don't know how to get it.
Is it just possible that Bitcoin, in the public eye, is simply neither scarce not prestigious anymore?
On the other side, we are fast approaching the one year point from the Great ICO Boom -- the short period of time in which we all felt like we're living in the Gold Rush era, especially in the "highway robbery", "wild west" style. Those few ICOs which happened to be neither scams nor collapsed immediately as the founders had absolutely no clue how to run a multi-million-dollar project, now have to deliver on their promises. And most of them won't. We'll also need to weather out this particular backslash when it happens.
This isn't to say that there will be no more bubbles, and no more roller-coaster rides ... but I think they'll get progressively more tamer as time goes by. Personally, in my own world-view, the latest Bitcoin bubble started when Bitcoin hit around $3.500, and after peaking at $20.000 it's now "merely" double that value (still an insanely good ROI!). I somehow think future bubbles will be even tamer.
So what to do? Likely, the mindset will shift to actually trying to use cryptocurrencies as currencies, instead of HODL-ing them. IMO that's the only way out.
As I said, opinions are like arseholes - don't take this as an investment advice.
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