Over the last 3 months it has been downright miserable owning bitcoin as well as just about all cryptocurrencies.
They have fallen from a high of around $900 billion in market cap to where we stand currently around $260 billion.
That is roughly a 70% drop, ouch!
However, if we zoom out a little we can see that things are not quite as bad as they seem.
Take a look at this chart put out by the CEO of Binance:
(Source: ~~~ embed:980089115294121984) twitter metadata:aWFtam9zZXBoeW91bmd8fGh0dHBzOi8vdHdpdHRlci5jb20vaWFtam9zZXBoeW91bmcvc3RhdHVzLzk4MDA4OTExNTI5NDEyMTk4NCl8 ~~~
It's a price history of bitcoin on March 31st over the years.
As you can see year over year over year, prices have mostly trended upwards (though a few years have been omitted to help make a point).
Now for some perspective...
I think this quote sums it up perfectly:
"Never have I seen a market wherein investors cry over a 600% annual gain."
So yes, over the last 3 months, the price action has been downright miserable, but for those that have held on for more than a year, they are still enjoying a 600% gain.
Hang in there, once we get passed tax day things should start to turn around. Plus there should be some nice catalysts in the second half of this year in terms of more clarity on regulations and also with the lightning network being implemented.
Not to mention Steem finally launching SMTs as well as communities.
Better times ahead.
Stay informed my friends.
Follow me: @jrcornel
If you haven't studied finance and don't know what the "efficient markets hypothesis" is, then you should not be speculating in cryptocurrencies. Your approach to cryptocurrency speculation should be patterned after your approach to taking your life savings to Las Vegas with dreams of striking it rich.
The fundamentals of the determination of the price of capital assets like cryptocurrencies is not yet well understood even by mathematical economists who have studied the theoretical issues for years.
Good points. It is all based on supply, demand, and hype. Though some technical and seasonal patterns do tend to repeat themselves, though not always.
Technical analysis was completely discredited in the 1970's by the emergence of the efficient markets hypothesis and dozens of empirical tests published in refereed journals such as the Journal of Finance. I am not current in that literature, but when I studied the field at the University of Chicago, the empirical work revealed some minor anomalies but otherwise failed to reject the hypothesis that all available information is quickly (nearly instantaneously) incorporated into the current price.
The "chartists", as they are called, are making a comeback in places like steemit, with analyses that are laughable to people trained in finance but who appear to have large followings in places like steemit.
The basic problem with technical analysis, and in particular with analyzing charts, is that if it worked, the smart money (institutional investors) would within minutes move massive amounts of money into or out of a particular asset in order to exploit the opportunity. Such actions would immediately eliminate the opportunity.
This is an example of a general proposition in economic theory, which is that there are no unexploited profit opportunities.
If you want to gamble with your money, take it to Las Vegas. At least there you can stay in a nice hotel, eat good food, and gawk at pretty women who smile at you while you throw your money away.
Laying down the cold hard truth. I like it.
"Get rich quick" schemes usually work very well... for the people who sell them or have a stake in promoting them. Fools rush in.
I'm not making a prediction. Just commenting on the current character of the market.
@ideafarm
Although I'm in agreement with most in your statement I cannot agree with leaving your money in the hands of "financial professionals".
Most of the youngsters that made millions in bitcion did it without any advice from a financial professional and most financial professional out there won't give you sound advice or make you money. If you know of one that actually makes you money let me know.
Agreed. I don't even open posts like that.
And do a lot of research. One of the best posts I've seen is one by @lukestokes - Did You Know You're Part of a Financial War?
The most interesting part for me in that post is a source article that was written by Super Crypto on the Medium platform - 4th Dimension: Bitcoin-Manipulation-Cartel — Price-Suppression is their Goal which explains the dip and pulls it through to Gold in Silver. This, for me, is by far the best explanation of the current situation because in the real world (one outside the programme) Gold & Silver is the only true money out there.
Very interesting read if you have the time.
Sorry for being unclear. I was saying that you should not be speculating in cryptocurrencies if you have not been trained in finance and you do not know what the "efficient markets hypothesis" is or what the Sharpe-Lintner capital asset pricing model and the Black-Scholes options pricing models are.
I'm not making any predictions here. Just warning people to not get suckered. I haven't yet seen a single analysis here of cryptocurrency market prospects that is worth the paper that it's printed on.
History tends to repeat themselves forming trends over time. Bitcoin has fallen 80% on five seperate occasions, there is no reason to believe there will not be a 6th and it’s time to load the boat because then there will likely be another 50X gain again.
Headed lower still.
If you're not a financial professional, you should not be speculating in cryptocurrencies (or in any other asset). Persuading amateurs who do not know what they do not know to purchase substantial amounts of, say, Bitcoin, on the expectation that they are going to get rich, is just as much a sucker's game as the promotion of penis enlargement cream (and the many other scams) is on Fecesbook.
Very well said. The crypto market is fairly new to understand this its behavior, which is what makes it even more unpredictable.
I am excited by the emergence of this technology and see nothing wrong with holding small amounts of crypto in your portfolio, mostly just for fun. Rather than investing MONEY in this technology, the real payoff will come to those who invest TIME to study its emergence and development. Being involved early, doing your homework so that you have a thorough familiarity "from the inside", and having the intellectual aptitude to really understand what is being done, can give you access to "inside information", which you can then use to speculate successfully.
Successful speculators don't follow the herd. They lead the herd. To do that, they must somehow acquire inside information that has not yet been incorporated into the market price.
The thing is that the majority of the people currently invested in cryptocurrencies probably got in over the last 6 months or so, and most of them now have a loss - and probably a very large loss.
Thos are the people who are "crying", not the people who bought 1+ years ago, and that's what sets the market sentiment.
Yep, very good point. That is why it is important for those people to see numbers like the ones posted above.
I completely agree. It’s easy for those who have held for years to say that we are still 600% up over12 months, butso
Many people jumped in at the end of last year and then got scared by the drop so dumped, locking in their losses. They will prob buy back in near the next top and repeat the process next time but that’s why there is so much negativity!
Probably? They will definitely be chasing it higher next time after selling for a loss and or puking the low. That is how markets work lol
Exactly. Some things never change!!
WoW jrcornel, this kind of rubs in our face that we all missed the boat. LOL
you are right its just i am new to crypto but still in profit so lets hope its price rise.
Hi @jrcornel
It is the #warofthecurrencies and the more we make people aware of this the more we, as crypto investors, will gain. The onslaught continues!
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Agree with you! We should stay informed.
I wonder how FED decision to stop quantitave easing and start clearing its balance sheet at 10 billion USD per month (in a beginning) will influence cryptocurrencies. Were cryptos overvalued asset due QE and will drop to pennies or will they rise to the moon because of FIAT superinflation and money running into cryptos via ETFs?
Altcoin market is flying! But the alts do look very over extended. Seems like many just trying to catch a wave on them and making some overvalued currently. Just my two cents tho.
inetersting thank you...
what you mentioned is all right, I think BTC could drop ore than 20%,, there should be a time for BTC to get down a bit so lots of buyers who are waiting to buy in the right time will enter the market
It took a drop because one of the Co-owners sold all of his assets and made public he doesn't see any future in the coin. Talking about bad news HUH!
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
This post is resteemed by @andresgo2000
Well put!
the expectations on bitcoin is too much high
the way its price increased ,people expect it to happen again and again .
I definitely can't panic at my long term investments, only tend to them as time passes on. Trying to keep a cool head is definitely working better thanks to your news updates though. Cheers.
Great post
So nice
As many have mentioned, these 50-75% declines have become unnoticeable in the long term charts as this is not the first time this has occurred in Bitcoin. So, imagine how high this can potentially go if this one also becomes a blip on the longer term chart? HODL!
Well the point is clear :)
The drop has made a panic among the new investors ,hope they hodl and get to see the glory once this all the bad news gets over !
Till then HODL !
Your post is very informative.
I just wish there was a good news in it when it comes
to investments for the "newbies" :-(
when the price was up i had nothing to take out, now i would
love to see some cash, and it's just not happening :-(
Hoping for the good times again ! :-)
It helps to put things in perspective and see the long term pattern. So thumbs up
Thanks for the perspective. Resteemed. I am fairly new to crypto, and the one thing that stands out to me is there is a lot of speculation on coins by those who want quick profits. Nothing wrong with that, but they are so eager for profits they do not take the time to understand what that particular chain is accomplishing/seeking to accomplish. Nor are they evaluating why a price is doing what it is doing.
Even as someone who didn't understand crypto, when Bitcoin shot up so quickly last winter, I tried finding out why. There was no good reason it should have was my findings, so I stayed out. That large influx of money (that I suspect was from bankers) began pulling out and now the prices are falling back to where they should have been all along.
Everyone should practice due diligence before investing, and as I have read many times now, never put in more than you could afford to lose.
Tax day is 17 april!! After that we will see a more or less stable price between 6k-6.5k and at the begging of my we will start to moon again
This is just my opinion, i might be wrong, this is what happened for all the past years, hopefully it will happen again
Nobody told them to buy and hold-sometimes we have to accommodate to changes. As we all adult -mentally -I presumed-we should not buy something that we don't know it is.
Same like with buying a house-check it, research it, buy it.