Let me go thought the quick analysis of what I found out regarding hashflare's cloud mining profitability for today.
TL;DR
Counting 1 BTC = 16 500 USD and 1 TH/s SHA-256 = 220 USD and that we start mining at 14 EH/s difficulty hash (now is 13.2 EH/s) rate which is going to multiply 9 times over 12 months (last year was 5.7, previous 2.2):
You're going to gain 10% compared to just buying BTC.
But there is a rumour that China is about to ban mining which may significantly reduce difficulty and result in higher revenue from mining. We'll see, how it goes.
Analysis:
I looked at https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?scale=1×pan=2years&daysAverageString=7 to see the difficulty from last 2 years. This is how it looked from 1st Jan to 1st Jan each year:
0.801 -> 2.2 -> 12.6 [EH/s]
So how large was multiplying factor compared to previous year:
1 -> 2.74 -> 5.7
Therefore I assumed that 2018 -> 2019 would be 9. Obviously this is arbitrary number, you may want to change it if you predict it to be different.
Ok, now let's count how much difficulty would increase per each following month assuming that it will increase in linear fashion and will be 900% until 12 months since started. Also let's say the difficulty will be 14 EH/s in the first month (now is 13.2 EH/s).
8/11 = 0.8181818182 - so earnings will be 14/(14+0.8181818182n)a
where n is number of months and a is average earnings from first month. Also note that I am dividing 8/11 since we are setting this first month to 14 so we increase only among 11 months. Also we are not dividing 9 but 8 because of the formula we created.
14/(14+140/7272727273n)a <- we will end up with 1(1+8)a by the end and it will increment in linear fashion.
Since I am already mining on hashflare.io with SHA-256 I know that average earnings per 1TH/s per day are 0.000133 BTC. So let's calculate average earnings for this first month :
0.000133 * (365/12) = 0.00404586
Side note: I am mining 100% on Slush pool, I found that most efficient.
Ok, now let's count earnings per month for next 12 months for all assumptions above:
0.00404586
14/(14+140.72727272731)0.00404586 = 0.00234234
14/(14+140.72727272732)0.00404586 = 0.001648313
14/(14+140.72727272733)*0.00404586 = 0.001271556
0.001034987
0.0008726365
0.0007543129
0.0006642457
0.0005933928
0.0005361983
0.00048906
0.00044954
SUM 0.01470244
So if my calculations are right we would get 0.01470244 BTC from 1 TH/s on hashflare.io if we start with 14M TH/s difficulty and it will increase times 9 over a 12 months.
Price of 1 TH/s - 220 USD for 7 Jan 2017
If 1 BTC = 13500 USD then 0.01470244 is 198,48294 USD. So we would loose ~ 10% over a year.
If 1 BTC = 15000 USD then 0.01470244 BTC is 220,5366 USD. So we would earn ~ 1% over a year.
If 1 BTC = 16500 USD then 0.01470244 = 242,59026 USD and we would earn ~ 10% over a year.
It all depends on BTC price while we make a decision to buy or mine. If BTC was less than 14963.5 USD then it would be more profitable to simply buy BTC instead of cloud mine. Above that price you may earn more while mining.
That's all for today, thank you. This is my first contribution to Steemit and I hope it wasn't too terrible.
Look forward to discuss this in the comment section below ;)
Cloud mining carries certain risk. I was very tempted into cloud mining where many had to stay with them for a certain period. In the end, I found Steemit and steem platform is the more secure place where we can build our steem progressively regardless of market rise or fall. Just keep building steem. I am a 25-day member here and I believe in this steemit platform!
Sure, I see potential in steemit myself ;) Also regarding cloud mining - I will probably have to reconfigure pools several times throughtout the year. So it's not completly hands-off after as buying.
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