That was a really good read. You make good arguments....and I really like where you're drawing your conclusions from. Top notch.
I agree with you about the parabolic nature and that it is silly to buy in now (in the long term anyways...short term profits are always available!).
I personally don't have a solid stance on whether this is a "bubble". In my mind, I don't see a bubble happening because of the irrational behavior of people...prices are never "rational" in this context, as they are always oscillating around a true, but subjective mean.
I totally agree that a downturn is inevitable though. The market is simply becoming bloated with resting sell-side stop orders, as well as a lineup of short-sellers.
THIS, is why I don't feel it is necessarily a bubble, but the beginning of a very high variance period. Great for traders, bad for investors. Massive swings and irrational decisions!
...in other words, chum in the water!
Great post by you!
nom nom nom