Time now as of writing - 13:47 AEST.
Technical analysis of Daily chart (source - ctrader, pepperstone).
Post 'China hype' we can see a bit of a whipsaw from the oversold 61% fib retracement line @3000, but still - like all of bitcoins dips, this did not fall below 30 RSI either. This RSI reading is mostly due to the mirrored incline of the previous rally, so the relative price fall is still within a reasonable range of the upward channel since May. Overbought signal of the mid-late Aug bull run did not trigger till around $4500-$4,600+ peaking up to the psychological resistance price of $5000.
A more typical 38% correction would of priced in around $3,750 - and it was due for it given the momentum of it's run since July. But coupled with this was the systematically and timed release of China's ICO and exchange bans - topped off with Dimons comments about bitcoin. I believe this caused an artificial drop that has now corrected, as opposed to this being a possible pivot for longterm bear market.
Bear senario would be returning to the 23% fib and 20ema bollinger band @$4,200, then riding the bottom channel till $3,400 -
$3,500 resistance by the 100ema. I don't see this likely, but major news announcements could trigger it.
The 100ema is acting as a base support for an upward channel, topping with the trendline. Expect a bit of resistance around $4,200, I suspect the price will flat line here for several hours and range on the 15min chart, before heading upward next resistance at $4,600. Once again, RSI is relatively low - even after the $400 climb yesterday - suggesting further bullish climbs.
Lets look at the Hourly Chart.
As you can see the price is settling in for a range market within bollinger, and this will narrow as volume reduces - allowing for RSI to level out around 40-45. At the same time, the 50ema is meeting back up with the 100ema just prior to the bottom bollinger @3,900. This should settle in nicely for a bull run later in the day.
Forecast: Short-term ranging $3,800-$4,000 followed by intraday bull run to $4,300-$4,400.
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