That was a nice read! What if it was much more thatn 20% lost coins, I think its possible. I had a friend with hundres of btc ltc and eth on his laptop.. then it got stolen. Also heard a prominient btc evangelist in NYC talk about how he has hundreds of laptops that may have had 1000s of btc for an live exchange in 2013 he was holding but he lost the passwords for them. I kick myself for not getting in on it in 2011 when i first heard of bitcoin.
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it could be, we dont really know for sure. I think the hard forks have definitely revealed a bunch of people who have been laying low until now. I would love to see a chain analysis site release some data.