Picture this…
It’s July 17th, 2020. Summer is in full swing and the talking heads on your indoctrina.. whoops i mean TV set are counting the days in anticipation of Bitcoin’s mining reward being cut in half. Individuals across the globe from all political parties and walks of life are taking to the streets to celebrate the greatest transfer of wealth and power from centralized to decentralized systems in human history. Thanks to the good folks at TheHalvening.com the countdown is already under way and you can watch here.
Hmm, So What is “The Halvening”?
New supply of Bitcoin comes into the world thanks to miners who use special software to solve math problems and receive a reward for validating the transactions that take place on the network. The reward for mining Bitcoin decreases over time and is cut in half every 4 years. This means that new supply of Bitcoin entering the world will be cut in half, most likely in the middle of 2020.
Sounds interesting but why are you buying now?
1. Mainstream Media Frenzy
Mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin has picked up and The 2020 Halvening has the potential to be sensationalized to a degree that drives many on the sidelines into the market. Check out the pop in searches for the 2016 Bitcoin Halvening (see below) and imagine what could happen during a period that Bitcoin is in the spotlight. Imagine Bloomberg or CNBC posting a countdown ticker live on air for the world to watch. As a catalyst, The Halvening could be well timed with an increase in Bitcoin coverage- I’d watch and I tend to avoid the news like it’s the plague.
2. The Institutional Pump
By July 2020, it’s likely Institutional investors will have joined the party. Bitcoin has been the talk of the town in the hedge fund world and the reason we haven’t seen “The Institutional Pump” (which will precede “The Mainstream Pump”) is because there aren’t many investment vehicles that provide the ease, security, and liquidity that’s required for your traditional institutional investor to join the party. These investors might not need the same easy user experience that grandma needs but there's still some groundwork to be laid for their entrance. As mentioned earlier, the clock is ticking in Bitcoin holder's favor.
3. Speaking of Grandma..
It’s possible we’ll have an ETF before The 2020 Halvening. This will be main street’s first legitimate way to buy and hold Bitcoin without giving a thought to researching how to buy and secure cryptocurrency. Grandma will be able to get her hands on some bitcoins.
Woah, wait a second Rob, this sounds great but we might fork again…
Yes, we very well may see another fork of BTC as some take a stand against the 2X component of the SegWit2x agreement but recent cryptocurrency history shows that a fork has the potential to be a net positive for holders (see Ethereum/Ethereum Classic & Bitcoin/Bitcoin Cash). Besides, The Halvening will almost certainly apply to Bitcoin Cash or any fork of BTC in the coming years, the rate at which blocks are mined will be the determining factor as to how far apart Halvening schedules diverge.
“But Rob, everyone can see this coming, the market has obviously already priced in the supply schedule”
Well sure, an efficient market theorist might agree and i'm working on it but the same people that The Halvening will excite into a frenzy may have not even entered the market yet. Google trends illustrates the short burst of excitement that the halvening brought to the community, do we really think the 2020 halvening is priced in? So much attention has been laser focused on the scaling debate that The 2020 Halvening is but a twinkle in the eye of most in the community.
Disclaimer: Invest at your own risk, this is an opinion piece and is not meant to serve as investment advice, consult your investment advisor prior to investing. As of this publication the author is long Bitcoin (BTC), LBRY (LBC), and STEEM (STEEM Power).
Credits: TheHalvening.com- http://www.thehalvening.com/index.php?lang=en_US#1
Grandma Photo by Alex Harvey on Unsplash
the last halvening was silent too easy to forget about the supply limiting, I remember talking about it with Parker and then price skyrocketed this spring can't imagine the FOMO by 2020
i'll remember this post.
thank you.
We think alike! Upvoted!
My analysis nailed the recent Bitcoin bottom and start of recent rally! Check it out at: https://steemit.com/@haejin
Great informtion.. it appears that something like this scenario is possible... lots of variables of course, but one can hope for a positive change, and I think we are all on board this bus for reasons exactly like this... transfer of wealth. With all the corruption and greed we have been exposed to.. this is our opportunity to get back. Thanks for sharing!
lets hope so. bitcoin revolution!
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STOPGreat article buddy, I covered it and linked to it in my newest video have a great one and God Bless
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