I hope you’re right about the high probability of approval and I agree it’s certainly plausible that they are friends making deals behind the scenes. But, how the CBOE application answers the SEC’s stated concerns about the underlying market conditions of manipulation, malicious software and exchange hacks (many of them being outside the US) is an interesting question.
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I believe #Chervinsky has it right. And FWIW I believe Everyone in the BitSphere IS paying attention and in light of all this they may be paying too much for #Bitcoin right now too.
A lot of speculators have predicted the next major price rise coming sometime within the next few weeks followed by a surge in #February which would make perfect sense with the SEC's next delayed decision coming in #March #2019
Here's my take...
I've read your take and I agree with its contents. The Winklevoss denial may have been an appeal against a previous refusal, but the reasons given for refusal by the SEC has implications for the VanEck ETF, despite it being backed by CBOE and having a better chance, because it targets institutional investors, whereas the minimum entry point of Winklevoss was 0.1 BTC. The underlying market conditions, manipulation etc are there just the same. Let's wait and see what happens, but I'm half expecting a delay of the August 10th deadline and a negative impact on the market. I expect to see a regulatory framework from the SEC, before we get an ETF and because of the current regulatory uncertainty the price is going to keep bouncing up and down. The current market conditions suit traders, trading volatility, rather than hodlers, but this will change in time.
Spot on! @sandwichbill
Let's see how this plays out, but I believe you are right about this creating a volatile market which favours the frequent traders over the likes of long term investors.