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The month of May is leaving us with a kind of mix feeling. We were expecting to have a better performance, counting in the hype supposed to be brought by Consensus 2018 (check my last post on that matter). Unfortunately, it did not happen, and we are overall 20% down from May's high on BTC.
There are many opinions on what is going on, one of them, quite strong, is that the upcoming regulations are curving the over excitement in the market, mainly over the top 20 coins. This is due to the higher exposure those coins have, meaning a much higher investment to move the market to create X10 folds moves. Still, that kind of movements again happens in the low cap coins, known as sh**coins.
It takes just a couple of clicks to find dozens of disscord, telegram, and websites for Pump & Dump schemes.
It was expected that some of the regulators would take hands on this issue. The latest news is coming from the US Futures Commission (CFTC). This is the body that oversees, e.g., both Chicago exchanges where the Bitcoin futures are settled and traded.
According to a report made by Bloomberg today, the US Justice Department is driving together with the CFTC a probe into the market manipulation on Bitcoin prices. This behavior is expected in a nascent economy, and even more when there are no exact rules on what is considered to be a crime. Just take as an example the thousands of regulations regarding market manipulation for the Stock Market.
Now, since BTC trades in the futures market, it is sidelined regulated and falls under the competency of the CFTC to look into the matter.
According to Bloomberg, someone involved in the matter stated that the investigations would focus
"on illegal practices that can influence prices -- such as spoofing, or flooding the market with fake orders to trick other traders into buying or selling."
The announcement will most probably deter bad actors to continue manipulating the market.
The Market is not on its best moment currently, the total Market Cap at its May lowest around USD Bn. 330., while the top 20 coins are in average down 5% on the day.
Personally, I do not expect a change of sentiment in the short term. Is possible that FUD could be triggered if it is confirmed that BTC has been deeply manipulated for most of 2017, but the end of the probe could take months.
Some conservative trading is advised and for those not in green positions is better to wait for a market turn confirmation.
Regarding the investigation, is not expected to affect small cap coins, since for those market manipulation may run freely in unregulated exchanges.
 @Santana33 | ||
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We still got 7 more months to go so 2018 could still be good for us!
That said, what effect would further regulations have on the market? Positive in terms of stabilizing volatility? Negative in terms of preventing a massive bullrun?
Thanks for your comment dirge. I also believe the market will move further after mid-year, there comes the summer and people takes some time on holidays, etc. I believe we will, yes, see those effects as mentioned by you.
I think a bull-run is possible but not anymore those crazy explosive short-term bursts.
Crypto market movements are all TA, can't get caught up in the news!
Congratulation santana33! Your post has appeared on the hot page after 35min with 49 votes.
Thanks to @souldelas.