RE: I've been seeing this chart get thrown around a lot lately. Given the market's history, which of these scenarios is more likely?

[suprepachyderm]

Agreed. I do find it worth noting that bitcoin is traded 24/7 globally and the dotcom bubble occurred under regular market conditions. The amount of time it takes for markets to play out in btc could be up to 4x faster. Not sure if that works out mathematically with the charts though. Would be interesting to try and calculate.