I think this is very plausible. You justification makes a lot of sense based upon recent history.
Personally, I said all along, the Chinese are not into banning Bitcoin...it is a gold mine for them. It is a country devoid of natural resources. Hence, they now have the opportunity to create wealth from natural resources, albeit digital ones. The Chinese are looking to reap billions off the bitcoin movement. Bet the ranch the government is well aware of it. They are not into banning btc as much as banning the average Chinese citizen from having it. All exchanges and miners will end up state run in China.
Bet the ranch on this and hold onto your btc. A lot of it is going to end up in the hands of holders (Chinese and bankers). They want to dominate the wealth.