I love your opening salvo, "what we think we know". There is a certain schizophrenia and madness to this frenzy to forecast the future. Our brains are so inundated with information.. It is a comfort that people such as yourself try to take it on and help the rest of us. Thank you.
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I hope it helps. Be careful out there. Might be no crypto is safe. Diversify out of BTC at this ATH is my opinion. Fundamentals look bad and rumors sound nasty. Holidays are often times when "bad" events trigger in markets and due to thin trading, have outsized effects on price.