I mentioned yesterday we were seeing indications of a trend reversal..at least in the short term. While I'd love to tell you we've seen the bottom of this bearish run, I'm not convinced we have. That said, we MAY at see a temporary rise in the short term. Let's take a look at where we might be heading...
Looking at the 1 day chart, we can see bitcoin is still well below the 8 day EMA. This makes it clear there's still a LONG way to go before we can declare the start of a bull run.
The 4 hour MACD has crossed into bullish territory, with no sign of reversing.
The 1 day Stoch RSI is very oversold and has plenty of room to rise.
The 1 day MACD is showing clear bullish divergence. This also suggests we still have more upside coming.
My primary count is the same as it was yesterday. I believe we've completed 5 waves down, and now are in an ABC correction. If wave "A" can penetrate the 0.236 fib (about $7K), I believe it'll likely reach the 0.382 fib level ($7,600). If not, this temporary rise will be short lived. Here's how it may play out:
Sometimes it's easy to get caught up in the trees and miss the forest. Zooming out on the 1 day, we can find a larger bullish count. With the recent drop, a clear bullish falling wedge has formed.
We can count an ABCDE correction within that falling wedge. If this count is accurate, here's how it could play out.
There's still a long way to go before the bullish count is validated. I very well could consolidate sideways before making any major move.
The 1 Day RSI is operating within a wedge. A break above the wedge would be a very bullish indication.
The 4 hour RSI has been operating under a strong descending resistance. If it can break above this resistance, I'd be a signifiant win for the bulls, and could indicate a trend change.
The key areas of resistance (trend lines) we need to keep an eye on, are listed here:
Bitcoin must break above that third trend line before we can even start to think about the start of a bull run.
Let's see how the rest of the week unfolds.
BIAS:
Short Term: Neutral
Longterm: Very Bullish
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Thanks for stopping by.
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by Workin2005
I am not sure if Technical Analysis works for cryptocurrency. It is very hard market to analyse :) Upvoted.
Agreed...it's a very hard market to analyze. I've been saying that for months. That said, good TA has been warning about the possibility of this drop for over a month. So while crypto is not yet an established market, TA does still have it's value in my opinion....but it's not for everyone. Thanks for the vote my friend.
Nice work. Again!
Thanks @bitbrain