An interesting piece of data, mate, and I can cautiously agree with your opinions. Historically, the data shows that the markets always go upwards post-halving, albeit the timing of how long it would take to get there is rather sporadic, so it could take months to years.
As you've said, with more institutional entry and instruments to back up or hedge Bitcoin, the markets could spiral faster than previous ones, though I do hope people won't get too overhyped on an immediate post-halving surge, since I imagine any bull run could take time.
Yea, my guess is that we have a speculative run up into the halving, followed by a decent sized pull back for a few months once the halving actually occurs, and then we have the massive move that is the result of the halving starting several months after the halving and eventually peaking 18 months or so (give or take 6 months) post halving.
That sounds like a pretty solid structure to how it'll go down, and I dare say you're pretty spot on with that.