I feel like that's a pretty good summary. At best lightning is 12 months away and that's a long time for alts/bch to do some real damage to btc. When I got into this space I was not excited about the price, I was excited to have the ability to invest/trade/interact worldwide without restrictions.
The utility IS the value and it's being destroyed day by day. Each time a new merchant drops btc and adopts bch another nail goes into the coffin.
Bitcoin will implode on itself. One of these other coins will improve before bitcoin and take over the market one day. Bitcoin has too many issues currently and i dont believe they will all get solved. I’m riding the price for now, waiting for the next break through. Litecoin is doing exceptional currently,but i dont believe it is the cure-all or replacement fo bitcoin in the long run but it could be in the short term
While LTC might be a good alternative now, that won't last. LTC is only good since it has less adoption than BTC. Even the creator of LTC has a vision where BTC and LTC go down the same path together, so diversifying to LTC is not any longterm play.
I'm looking at coins going in another direction, like BCH for example. At least with that coin you know the vision and that's a vision I can get behind
But will it take over BTC?
I don't believe so