The main reason bitcoin hasn't risen above 20K is because of scaling. If transaction fees weren't up in the $30 - $100 range last December and the transactions could have kept up, we would have had mass adoption by now. The fact that it couldn't keep up, meant that users couldn't keep piling on to a network that was maxxed out. Please don't tell me I don't know what I'm talking about. I'm the CEO of my own tech company with over 20 years experience in software dev.
For this reason, in the near term, bitcoin cash actually has a better chance of reaching above 20K. However, as it continues to increase block sizes, latency will become an ever increasing problem and mining will be more centralized than it is now. So far mining centralization has not been a problem, but who knows what the future will bring.
The problem with LN is that it hasn't solved the scaling problem well enough so that anyone's grandma can send a transaction with the swipe of a finger across your smart phone. Until then LN can't solve the scaling issue because there will not be scale/demand. Your average person just isn't going to go to Github, compile LN and run their own server. This is what is currently required and it's a completely unrealistic demand to make of average users. So much so, it makes me wonder about Blockstream's real intentions.
Nice comment and thanks for sharing your thoughts. However, I may have to take you up on your BCH more likely to reach $20k comment... I'd be willing to make a wager on that one. ;)