Getting Nervous About Crypto Mania

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Back in 1999, I was riding the Long Island Railroad and I heard two grandmothers talking behind me on the train about how they were investing in Lycos (google it).

I remember thinking to myself, “ok, things are out of control now.”

It was probably 3-5 more months before everything exploded.

I’m getting increasingly concerned about the state of crypto-mania.

Daily, I get messages from people who are new to crypto and have a portfolio that is up 300-600% in the past few months. They are investing in pretty much anything listed in the top 50 on Coinmarketcap.

It feels a lot like the Long Island Railroad.

Having spoken with many of these projects, I don’t feel comfortable saying that the valuations are on par with reality now.

That leads me to believe (and I could be wrong– crypto has a way of humbling everyone) that the real bubble is in the alt-coin market. At some point, I think, there’s a “flight to safety.”

For crypto, this is BTC, ETH, and to a lesser extent LTC. I think Zcash is one of them, but I’m biased. Either way, just a handful of them.

Many will just go back to Dollars or Euros or whatever.

Bottom line…I think there will be mass panic in the crypto markets and the slowest movers will get wiped out.

Certainly, this could go on for a very long while. The FOMO is huge and real and there’s a lot of money that is about to pour in from institutions so the ride isn’t over, but we’re well into pure speculation here.

Trust me, I get it…I’ve kicked myself for getting out of some tokens too early, but there’s a saying that I saw somewhere that said, “no one is unhappy with a profit.”

All I think is that when it hits, it will hit quickly. Last Friday will seem like a headache.

For crypto-projects, I think the prudent move is to plan for a minimum of 2 years of fiat cash reserves (I don’t think fiat will go away that quickly) so they can weather the storm.

If it doesn’t come, you might be ticked off, but you won’t be dead.