World Cup Analysis

in #blocktradesworldcup5 years ago (edited)

World Cup 2018 start soon and you might have heard about @blocktradesprize of 2000 SBD if you guess the most right results. I don’t know much about soccer but I know quite a lot about data analysis and if you want to win, this analysis might help you. If you didn't join so far, here is article describing how to do that.
world_cup_analysis3.png

Wisdom of the crowd

Collective opinion of a lot of people will often produce better result than an opinion of a single expert because false expectations of a single person are filtered by voice of others that have the right information. Let’s look at some examples: most people agree that Spain, France and Brazil will win all their matches, most people also agree that Saudi Arabia and Iran will lose all. 96 % of people think that Spain will beat Morocco and 95 % think that Spain wins over Iran. Only 2 % of people think that Costa Rica will beat Brazil which is extremely unlikely and since you get only 1 point if that happens, you should prefer to bet on more likely results where you can get the same 1 point much more likely. The hardest think to find in the data is separating teams that are on similar level like Serbia and Switzerland, Poland and Colombia or Japan with 39 % chance of win and Senegal with 33 % chance of win while 28 % likelihood of tie. We can do some tricks like removing people what believe that Costa Rica wins over Brazil but even that moves the percentages only slightly.

Looking at the data

We analyzed 954 valid entries and most people (913) agreed that Spain beats Morocco (24 believe in tie), 906 people think Spain will win over Iran while 24 people believe in Spain's loss and 24 in tie), 892 trusts Brazil to win over Switzerland while 25 think Brazil will lose and 37 think it will end up with a tie. Win and loss in graph is from a view point of the first mentioned team.

Spain vs MorrocoIran vs SpainBrazil vs Switzerland
913 - 17 (24 ties)24 - 906 (24 ties)892 - 25 (37 ties)
spa_mor.pngira_spa.pngbra_swi.png
Mexico vs SwedenPoland vs ColombiaSerbia vs Switzerland
396 - 243 (315 ties)182 - 438 (334 ties)291 - 353 (310 ties)
mex_swe.pngpol_col.pngser_swi.png

Change when we eliminate noise

When we eliminate people that believe Brazil will lose to Costa Rica, Spain will lose to Morocco and similar matches that most people agree on with each iteration we get only slight change in percentage distribution of wins and loses as you can see down below.
chan_swe_sou.png
Sweden's chances agains South Korea slightly rises when we eliminate users with marginal views. Sweden's chance rises from 59% to 63% and South Korea's chance decreases from 16% to 13%.

Denmark vs AustraliaJapan vs SenegalRussia vs Saudi Arabia
50% -> 54% vs 33% -> 31%39% -> 37% vs 28% -> 29%88% -> 91% vs 7% -> 6%
chan_den_aus.pngchan_jap_sen.pngchan_rus_sau.png
Win probabilityTeamTeamWin probabilityTie probability
88%RussiavsSaudi Arabia5%7%
10%EgyptvsUruguay74%15%
47%MoroccovsIran23%30%
20%PortugalvsSpain51%29%
94%FrancevsAustralia3%3%
90%ArgentinavsIceland4%6%
21%PeruvsDenmark49%31%
57%CroatiavsNigeria22%21%
36%Costa RicavsSerbia37%27%
91%GermanyvsMexico4%5%
94%BrazilvsSwitzerland3%4%
59%SwedenvsSouth Korea16%24%
90%BelgiumvsPanama4%6%
4%TunisiavsEngland90%6%
58%PolandvsSenegal18%24%
68%ColombiavsJapan16%16%
55%RussiavsEgypt19%27%
92%PortugalvsMorocco3%5%
90%UruguayvsSaudi Arabia4%6%
3%IranvsSpain95%3%
87%FrancevsPeru4%9%
50%DenmarkvsAustralia17%33%
72%ArgentinavsCroatia8%20%
92%BrazilvsCosta Rica2%7%
45%NigeriavsIceland29%26%
19%SerbiavsSwitzerland46%35%
86%BelgiumvsTunisia6%8%
90%GermanyvsSweden3%7%
15%South KoreavsMexico65%20%
91%EnglandvsPanama4%5%
39%JapanvsSenegal33%28%
31%PolandvsColombia37%32%
52%UruguayvsRussia20%28%
14%Saudi ArabiavsEgypt65%21%
96%SpainvsMorocco2%3%
3%IranvsPortugal93%4%
8%DenmarkvsFrance73%19%
34%AustraliavsPeru42%24%
6%NigeriavsArgentina80%14%
17%IcelandvsCroatia60%23%
5%South KoreavsGermany92%3%
42%MexicovsSweden25%33%
2%SebriavsBrazil92%6%
55%SwitzerlandvsCosta Rica20%25%
23%JapanvsPoland56%21%
18%SenegalvsColombia60%23%
39%EnglandvsBelgium30%31%
28%PanamavsTunisia43%29%

matches.png
matches2.png

My recommendation

Choose winning team according to table above that is highlighted i.e. more than 40% of people agree that the team wins (W) and if no team has above 40%, I recommend to choose a tie (T).

About problems with the data

We didn’t analyze data in other languages or with typos. We ignored if someone specified that Japan vs Poland will end up with win of Japan and tie of Poland. If you missed some matches or duplicated matches, your entry was ignored as well.

Coming soon

After the first stage, expect analysis of posts for the second stage of the World Cup.

Sort:  

In-depth analysis. good job man.

Your balance is below $0.1. This is your 2nd notification that your account is running low and should be replenished.

Wow thanks so much for awesome analysis @petermail , its much appreciated and will hopefully help me figure this out lol! what an awesome prize it would be to win! upped and resteemed your post, I am following you now!⚽⚽⚽✌👍

Thanks, I hope it helps. You might also look at this post if you want to easily copy template of all the matches.

Just got the template , thank you ! and good luck I will be posting as soon as I make my picks!!⚽✌👍

Hope he's getting something if you win

right ! lol from everyone that entered ! it did help me decide but I still had to make own ultimate decisions as everyone did .But he did get my upvote and a resteem to my 5200 followers though! good luck to you!✌👍👍👍

wow, that really in depth analysis. great effort! tip!

Thanks, I am looking forward to see how good was the Steemit's collective guess.

Excellent article and good analysis @patermail.
Best Regards

wow you are amazing, great job @petermail
My favorites are:
1.Brazil
2.France
3.England
4.Germany

Thanks. The data suggest that those teams will be one of the best.

Thanks, you have lot of interesting info there.

Nice work.

I made my selections last week and for the most part, I seem to be siding with the popular choices.

Thanks. There are few matches that even Steemit's collective brain isn't sure so it will be interesting to see how the real results will end up.

Hi @petermail! You have received 0.1 SBD tip from @superoo7!

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This post has received a 5.89 % upvote from @booster thanks to: @petermail.

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I just entered if you get a chance to check out my picks, thanks again for the awesome help! following you!⚽🏃✌👍
https://steemit.com/blocktradesworldcup/@karenmckersie/the-blocktrades-world-cup-my-predictions

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