Everyone on X was declaring this was a Bull Market and I kept repeating that we were in a Bull Trap which barely anyone liked because they don't want to hear it. You can check my post from Sept 29th.
https://peakd.com/bitcoin/@brianphobos/the-most-vicious-bull-trap-we-have-ever-seen-bitcoin
Blockchain Don't LIE!!!!
What we can notice from the screenshot at the top is it touched the Extreme Greed in the green and typically when we do that in a BEAR Market will will return to the red "Extreme Fear" Zone. Compare that top screenshot to where we were Sept 29th when I wrote the post I linked to above.
We were clear up at a score of 67 when I made the call that we were in a vicious BUll Trap all along. If people would have listened to me they would have had proper insight but instead a lot got REKT taking advice from GROK or taking advice from bird chested FOMO traders who have been in crypto since 2024.
I have been in crypto since 2013 and I'm still out there getting kicked out of bars and lifting heavy for the love of the game. I did my time in the trenches.
So do we touch the Red Extreme Fear area? We likely will and go down in it for Max Pain but I wouldn't short these assets at this time banking on that and I wouldn't lever long right now hoping for a V shaped aggressive recovery.
I you are stacking at spot price these aren't bad entries for certain assets like Solana, Dogecoin, NEET. You have to be ready to endure a lot of pain for months stacking any of this stuff because right now a lot of Macro indicators don't look good at all.
Corn Harvest
There's a lot of corn still out there unharvested. Seems unrelated but with near $7 / gallon diesel it's like they can't afford to not harvest it but don't have the money to harvest it. If you look up stats they act like this is normal but from my observation it isn't.
Are we trusting the Gubment for data on Inflation, Covid, The Charlie Kirk assassination, 9/11????
You can't trust them for fuck all. I'm telling you there is more corn left out there unharvested right now than normal. These farmers are going bankrupt. A lot of businesses are going bankrupt and are in serious financial issues.
There is an outdoors / farm store chain around here called Runnings. They acquired some other troubled outdoors stores a few years ago. There is hardly any business at any of the locations. https://www.runnings.com/
Aldi pulled the plug close to my parents. Some of this stuff is privately held so we can't really see the numbers but I can tell you a lot of it isn't good.
Not as many people are going out and people can't really afford to move around that much.
What does this have to do with crypto?
People are out of money an it is only going to get worse. The hardest thing of a 2 Week war is the first 20 Years. Trumpstein betrayed the United States and the world for Israel's greater Israel project and it is crushing Farmers and anyone who owns a business. Suddenly liquidity dries up and the well runs dry.
What do you think happens as more people are replaced by AI? Funds get tighter and they don't have as much to stack these speculative assets when they can't fill out their gas tanks or buy food. I bought some steak the other day because I'm not trying to be bird chested and had to pay $30 for what it was.
The point is everything is expensive and a guy like Michael Saylor who is soaking up a lot of BTC supply is once again upside down.
Strategy's (led by Michael Saylor) average cost per Bitcoin is $75,446 (including fees and expenses).
To get to those amounts of coins he has had to play a strange shell game. EPS
-52.33 That's not a favorable thing situation for Strategy.
Trump lied to everyone about having a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve along with a dozen other unkept promises and then essentially did the exact opposite of what he campaigned on and then max extracted every market for personal gain and left us with the bill.
None of this is positive to the broader crypto market for the most part but I don't think there is still some value with various assets that if someone manages their risk properly there are gains to be had and you can protect assets with some of this stuff.
The stock market is a house of cards and propped up by very little. It's unreal it has gone on this long. There hasn't been a reserve requirement for these banks since March of 2020. A convenient use of the Covid Scam to alleviate the banks from levering against anything. It's all fictitious.
So isn't that good for crypto?
I would say in some respects but most people don't have any money to put towards it and you have to go deeper and deeper into the trenches to get a sizeable multiplier. You guys saw my FOMO trades.
Super tweaker degen status to get the 15X in a month an a half. That makes a sizeable difference in someone's life. Now hoping to catch a double from here on BTC with $1,000 in 4 years. What in 2029 you are going to have $2,000 and gas will be $12 / gallon?
It isn't that enticing to most investors that don't have tons of funds so it relies on the Boomers to try to catch up a bit and throw a percentage at it to at least preserve some wealth and not get chewed up by inflation.
So what's going to happen?
I think Bitcoin and Ethereum bounce around and end up in the Extreme Fear area and likely we at the very least see $69K BTC which will be an extreme ego blow once again to tons of traders who mistimed this and took bad advice.
If World War III ramps up and the government pulls a false flag on us and cuts the power or we suffer a tons of Banking Hacks, Power Plant Hacks, and other stuff the broader stock market could really roll over and freak people out and that is going to spill over to crypto.
I think crypto could likely get to $69 and touch in the Extreme Fear. People will Lever Long pretty hard and there won't be enough energy and it will be a slight recovery and retrace potentially and could even retest the $60K areas. in the next month and a half. If things really fall apart we could still certainly see it knife down Sub $40K. Our timeline has been sort of misaligned slightly from the 4 year cycle but that's the ultimate GOTCHA to liquidate traders. The CBBI is ready to knife straight down.
The score is off because there is a time horizon component and since we didn't bottom on October 6th-10th it could be slightly misleading and hard for it to get to those scores of 5 that we saw at the bottoms in previous cycles. All I know is we aren't ready to go back up in a meaningful way. This is crypto's first World War.
The Game Theory is Breaking Down
The game theory on a lot of things is breaking down and everyone is quitting everything. The gym has been a ghost town, bars and clubs are largely dead in most places except large cities and college towns. Most things have turned very gay and backwards.
There isn't a lot for young men to really fight for because the success rate on everything seems so low to them. Their female peers largely think they are all a joke so they have checked out. This next set of guys coming up have already been replaced by AI and an army of International SIMPS from around the world before they even graduate. Imagine getting a masters in computer science from Purdue University and being replaced by AI before you graduate.
They just aren't going to have the funds to invest in this larger cap stuff without insane LEVERAGE. 100X and 1,000X.
You guys who have followed me for awhile haven't really seen me doing levered shorts. Usually I would focus on spot and stack in the deep red draw downs and then wait for things to recover. That game no longer plays.
I'm going to have to go 1,000X on the way up.
Expect the chop to get way worse with lots of fakeouts because people feel like they have to do that to survive in these conditions.
Stepping up to the plate trying to hit a grand slam every time.
If a person had to put everything they have into stuff that was relatively safe maybe they go light in BTC and ETH in these pullbacks and then go harder on SOL, DOGE, Monero, and TRON.
It just really depends on someone's risk profile.
I almost think it would have been better if crypto had just stayed under the radar. It's too corporate now. I'm starting to question if we will ever see the $250K high people think is down the road. If I had it to do all over again, I'd probably go into a trade versus college. Plumbing or Electrician, HVAC Technician, welder, etc.
It's too corporate for sure and with operation chokepoint and operation chokepoint 2.0 they try to jam people into using the centralized exchanges which are like bank accounts and make other avenues extremely difficult.
That's part of the reason I had so much fun on FOMO there for a bit. It felt like old times but I knew it wasn't going to last long.
I feel like the people that went into the trades or had some business around that caught a win fall for a quick minute but I personally feel like it's getting oversaturated for how much work there is out there in most places. You can spend a lot of time doing free bids.
Also it can be dangerous and beat your body up for no status gain.
That may not seem to matter to most people but it depends what their situation is.
If we weren't in some computer related field we probably wouldn't have understood crypto as fast.
Crypto for sure allowed me to be more flexible, get my rest, and have the freedom to travel around.
Crypto hasn't really done that for me yet...
Yeah, i get what you are saying. I'm going to have to get a lot more aggressive with it to give similar results. Which I already did have to go that route. In the past I wasn't really trenching around for Sub $1 Million marketcap projects.
Then wasn't doing leveraged shorts. Now I was almost getting annoyed that more leverage wasn't allowed on Kalshi.
Part of me feels I should have got on BitMEX and ByBit and hit the leverage scene way earlier but it's always hard to know how much risk to take on. We have seen a lot of people get torched.
I feel like I should have just invested everything into BTC and taken a nap.
There are certainly moves I made that I wish I did different in some respect but also there are bills and all this other BS in the real world to take care of. I consult with a guy who is 70 now and I got him into crypto in 2014 and the fact that he had all these other businesses established he was just able to buy a sizeable stack at various times and it really paid off but in fairly short conversations he was able to just summarize these projects that had a lot of runway and just buy what I was saying and just set it and forget it and focus on his other businesses. Then when things pop off he kind of looks at it again.
In 2015 there was a Bitcoin whale in Tucson and we had a Bitcoin meetup and he was a Bitcoin Maxi at that time and I asked him if he was into any other projects like Ethereum and he said he wasn't and, "I'm looking at the bigger picture."
I personally thought that was risky just to have all his eggs in one basket from a code perspective but as of right now that would have played out well for him because he would have gotten all those forks and Bitcoin has remained on top currently.
It's always hard to fully know.
With the amounts I had in at various times I felt like I had to get riskier and fortunately I hit some serious bangers with DOGE, BNB, CAKE, and many others. This last cycle wasn't fun and getting on FOMO this fall was the most fun I had in years in crypto.
GTA6 Memecoins are jumping on there right now because we are 1 week away from release but they are all fighting for supremacy so people are getting crushed if they pick the wrong ones.
I might reenter the trenches with $200 but in a lot of ways it's not a good time when the broader market is getting pulled down and all the Nvidia CEOs girlfriends are coming out of the woodwork.
Yeah, I used to make fun of the BTC Maxi's, but they are looking pretty smart right about now.
El dato del Fear & Greed volviendo de 67 a zona de codicia extrema y ahora apuntando al rojo de pánico extremo es el que importa, on-chain se ve esa misma acumulación silenciosa mientras el retail se aburre. Lo del maíz sin cosechar por el diésel a $7/galón me hizo ruido: es la misma señal macro que el volumen no está descontando. ¿Vos estás viendo entradas en SOL a estos precios o esperás el pánico máximo?