Today I wanna talk about the BTC big pic again. There are two main scenarios right now.
One is immediately bullish:
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And the other one is shortterm bullish, but midterm bearish. In all cases though, we will likely see a new bull market of gigantic proportions in 2019/20.
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Great update and I was looking for this (the big pic) from you for some time.
What would help to get some coordinates like for the trend line which you see must hold for the case pure bull.
Are there any other clear signals which would confirm the one or the other scenario? Any probabilities you could add to those scenarios?
Concerning the coordinates/dates of this trendline have a look at this:
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If we see 5 waves up to the level of black wave 3 (instead of 5waves up for black 1, 3waves down for black 2 and 5waves up for black 3, that would be a huge warning sign for a trend reversal.
It is a bit difficult to explain. I will draw it when the time has come.
This trendline and 6500$ are the things to keep an eye on for now.
I think I get the idea - if we overshoot that is a sign for being unsustainable.
Thanks for the big picture - Just being curious. I thought a trend line need three touch points to be considered relevant. How is your view on that?
Yes. If a trendline has 3 touch points, like the lower one, the market considers it valid. The acceleration trendline does not have three touch points yet. If wave 2 bounces off of it like I expect, then good. For now it is only a hypothetical line where I expect to find some support.
I am liking the bullish scenario. The longer term bull scenario (19/20) does playbinto the wider narrative though, with several big investors talking of prices above $200k in the 2020-2022 timeframe.
It would still fit this timeframe if it drops to 4000 first ;-) I am neutral at the moment while slightly favoring the bullish scenario.
Hi, great post, worth a follow. Looking forward to some more of your stuff.
The only way I can think of the bearish scenario playing is BTC being exposed for its incompetence and better functioning alt-coins gaining way more interest from people. I think eventually this would happen. I do think BTC could hit $500 before the end of 2020. But people getting that smart this quick seems too odd. So I'm making my bets on the scenario on top.
Thanks for the update.
I have a theory we are on an up trend for the rest of 2018 but come 2019, when recession hits and there is wide spread fear, risk off and cash parking in the market, scenario two might come true. Bitcoin has yet to be tested in a down economy.
BTC is likely to explode in value in any USA, Europe or China recession. The money needs to go somewhere. It is too expensive for big institutions and hedgefunds to stay in cash.
Yes that could be true too. We shall soon see!
We are going up up and away!
Well the future of the BTC seems to be unpredictable. It can be, like you. He says to go up and then go down. I believe that this will be the dynamic but that it will finally be sustained in time. Thanks for guiding in this difficult topic.
Timely and quality piece, this should of easily made it to the trending page as I am sure quite a few people would find this information, quite useful... The post is probably just in the nick of time for some. Thanks man.
que bien ,yo no pierdo las esperanzas, gracias por la información
Cool post!
Really seems like everything wants to go up for now...
But, what about STEEM and SBD?
Thanks a lot about this informative post.I appreciate your post.
Great Post! would love your current thoughts on XVG if possible.
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Hmm fits very well I think. My count was slightly off.
Think i thought we had done 5 & was doing an ABC now (part of your blue 2 wave) & ready to pop up for your blue 3.
Although I am quite sure you're much better than I at TA, still learning!
So could go about .17 for top of white 5, then down to about .07 for bottom of blue 2? Hope I am reading it correctly, then up for blue 3 to about .40.
in couple hours they are apparently announcing a large partnership, so perhaps fits well.
Do you see the white 3/4/5 playing out in a possible short time to fit this, and the blue would be slightly longer term, or do you think its possible the blue could happen quicker to fit. I know time is hard in Elliot wave..
And thank you kindly, for helping my ever so green self through this, and possibly profiting. Not that its anyone's decision except mine. I sold 2/3rd already and kept 1/3 encase it rally's from announcement. Would ideally love to buy back in a low after and keep some longer term..
Yes. This could all happen faster than shown in the picture. White wave 3 could also still go higher. And if we start to see bigger daily movements in altcoins this could accelerate the process of reaching blue wave1 and 2 a lot.
I must be way off, thought we had finished white 4 and were starting white 5
with this recent crash it seems like blue wave 1 is already done:
Awesome, you've been so much help!!! I sold all last 3rd near the top, now hoping to buy some back in bottom of C (or close to)
I hope I can go to sleep now for few hours and come back before it turns upwards again :)
I cannot tell for sure which chart you posted, but is this is the $ chart, the bottom of white 4 overlaps with top of white 1. I have it a little different. Thoughts?
Would you have any update for XVG, I m having trouble with the chart now and if its heading back up or this is part of a larger correction first from its recent high..with much gratitude.
BTC seems to me as immediately bullish as the event Consensus 2018 is coming up, last year BTC made a very big move due to this event. A lot of very high profile investors come to this event and many ICOs come to pitch their ideas. You can check the event here: https://www.coindesk.com/events/consensus-2018/ ; so due to this reason BTC can go up.. @joiker made me aware of this event.
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wow there was absolutely no need to downvote, you had commented and that was enough reason for me to change it.
You got a 3.82% upvote from @postpromoter courtesy of @ew-and-patterns!
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Good analysis
I'm in agreement with your immediate bullish scenario. Price bounced off of sellers at $8500, I think the next leg up, price will get through the $8500 level and on its way to $10k, then $12k.
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Hello I am @ ayogom, I have recently started Steam It.
I am analyzing whale wallets based on bitinfocharts.
Can you read my blog once, please?
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ayogom/bitcoin-whale-wallet-analysis-2018-04-17
I do analysis every day.
Hi @ew-and-patterns. I think we are in for a small retracement now. How deep this correction is, may give a clue on the next trend. I do prefer your bullish assessment though :)
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I hope the second scenario: the sales!
I just got taken for US$7200 by FTO Capital... wish I had seen your stuff before I invested with those scammersharks
BTC is not @ 7200. What are you talking about?
No, I'm just saying, I invested US$7200-00 with a company called FTO Capital, and was trading on the currency markets (not crypto) and they stole it all, after I built my balance up to US$21000-00.
If I had invested that money in crypto, with a legitimate outfit, I would not be on the brink of being bankrupt!
Nice post all get upvote.... :)
really great review
Btc is at very fair price to buy