Thursday night's trading selections are:
02:00 (CEST) Dallas vs Colorado Rapids: under 2.5 @2.12 for 0.6 (€6) pts. Betfair Exchange
This season Dallas (home) have had 47% of their games gone under 2.5 and Colorado (away) 53%. Against equal teams (bottom vs bottom) these figures are 43% and 29% respectively. In their 15 home games Dallas only managed to score in 67% of their games as well as they conceded in 67% of their games. For the away team these stats are: 47% and 87%. What interest me is that against equal teams Dallas has only scored and conceded 57% and 57%, while Colorado only managed to put in at least one goal in 29% of their away matches. They conceded at least one goal in 71% of the games.
The probability of a goal in the first half is 52% over the whole season and 50% against equal teams. This certainly helps, as I'll be trading the bet on the Exchange. When the odds have reduced by 60%, I'll make sure of a scratch by laying under 2.5 @1.45 for 0.6 pts.
01:30 (CEST) New York RB vs DC United: BTS NO @2.34 for 0.5 (€5) pts. Betfair Exchange
Another bet with good value. New York RB will most probably score at this match, the probability of both teams scoring being 57.76% makes no sense to me. Over DC's last 14 away games, they have only managed to score in 6 games, while New York RB have only conceded a goal in 8 of their 14 home games. Looking at top (NY) vs bottom (DC), the away team scored in 43% of their 7 away games while NY only conceded a goal in 4 of their away games.
Furthermore New York have gone both teams to score in 7/14 home games and DC 4/14 away games. Same figures apply for top vs bottom. The odds should definitely be lower if you ask me! Like with the under 2.5 trades, I'll be laying BTS no when the odds have reduced by 60% to ensure a scratch. This will be when the odds reach @1.54.
Tip: when you place the bets, you can already put a lay. Make sure you click on 'keep', so that the lay bet will remain active when the games go in play.
Good luck.
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