Mortality rates differ across the globe -- What is Germany doing right?

in #coronavirus4 years ago

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Look, even if you count all the cases (not just resolved case) in China the reported rate of death is 4% (and nobody believes China is reporting all their fatalities), and in Italy it's 10%. That means that in the two countries with 40% of all the reported cases in the world, the fatality rate is vastly higher than your wished for 1%. By the way, Spain is has the fourth most cases in the world and their current fatality rate (tabulating it the way you prefer: total deaths divided by total cases, and assuming everyone who has it will live) is 6%, and sixth-place Iran's rate is 7.9%.

If you are one of those who wish to insist we will have the results South Korea has (their rate is 1.2% and climbing), you need to consider some things. First, you need to look at the pretty amazing steps South Korea took to ward off the spread (they were going back through people's actual mobility history--down to which seat in the theater infected persons sat in--to alert people who might have been exposed) and realize we did very little of it.

South Korea also was testing like crazy from the outset and got known cases isolated immediately. We now have the third most cases, and we are just now getting our testing ramped up. We are still nowhere near being able to really know who has it.

South Korea is a population of 51 million rather homogenized, healthy, young people. America is diverse, disparate, and there are huge pockets of people who are particularly vulnerable. Although Italy has more smokers and a much older population, we have vastly more obese people and terribly unhealthy lifestyles. What has happened in New York alone is worse than what has happened in South Korea.

This virus is not going to follow the wishes of statisticians and number crunchers. We know that humans are terribly unpredictable. And here in America there are many virus deniers who think, "well, it's only got a death rate of 1% and it really only kills old, unhealthy people anyways, and our response to it has been a massive overreach to tank our economy, so I am not going to self-quarantine to prevent its spread."

I was hoping that we might be similar to Germany's experience. They have a population of 83 million, and they have 26,220 reported cases but an amazingly low 111 deaths. They have only 533 closed cases which brings their death rate to 21%, but of all their cases so far the rate of death is a miniscule 0.2%. But we have already surged past Germany now that we have 35,000 cases (only 636 of which have been closed) and 458 deaths. I really don't know what Germany has done to keep their deaths so low, but I wish we were doing it.

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Proper medical care is doing all the difference, specially enough beds with ventilators.

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