I have always wondered if the 4 year cycle is actually the halvening pressure as claimed by cryptobros, or if it just happens to align with the political cycle. Either way, it still seems more and more to me that QE was the hidden agenda behind a feigned tariff play. I think they meant to get it this year, but It also seems more an more that QE may not happen until mid 2026, especially with the rumor about Bessent. I dont think this administration is afraid to take that risk, to get a "risk on" rally before midterms.
At the end of the day, from my POV, is a rigid 4 year cycle only the result of "structural distortions" anyway? Is clinging to a set cycle too deterministic? Wouldnt we say that a true cycle is driven by monetary expansion and corrections, rather than dates somebody wrote on a calendar anyway? All I am saying is, cryptobross are counting on the past to tell us what the rules are, but I wonder if the macro, the real invested money, still might have its say in it.