So BTC retracted a little again, which is not unexpected, except those who are absolutely living in the delusion that if wouldn't.
Although I would say their delusions are justified, because BTC pumped from 65k to 80k in a supposed downward market slope (spiral) and also in a year that we all thought, you know what?
This is is definitely going to be the bear market year. This isn't like the assessment is wrong, we all know that this was going to be the bear market year even though we had a disappointing turnout in the previous cycle (except for BTC holders). It's what it is.
BTC might retrace to even 70k and maybe even dump below it and back to that 65k range again.
Again, in my books this is expected, it would hurt, just as it has always done, but that's the situation of things, dumps hurts, no matter what anyone says, seeing dumps absolutely hurts no matter what, but when you adapt to the psychological expectation that we might be in for some sharper dump by Q4, then you'll just probably not feel the pain as much as someone who is confused and not following the market.
Two to three weeks ago, BTC was at 80k and even at 73k currently I don't think alts dumped as hard as we they normally would do with BTC, but I think this might be because 90% of alts are already at an all time low.
It could also be because there's nothing much to bleed from, or pretty much because there's really no momentum to lose from. I like to see the alt market as 90% decelerated. There's really no acceleration to pick from, no pumps to dump from, and pretty much every brutal dump has happened in the past 3 to 4 months.
Worst case scenarios
Although another 40% dump is possible from here, but I don't think anything above that is possible. Infact I'm thinking this is pretty much the worst case scenario that would get BTC to that 45k range and the likes of Hive within 3 to 4 cents range.
I'm opening up myself for this worst case scenario, and expecting it to happen from Q4 to Q1 of next year and then we bottom at the end of Q1, and probably start picking up momentum from there, this is roughly a 8 to 10 months case and after that, the market takes a breather and begins to go up again. It looks really scary on the surface and believe me it actually is, but we have to expect the worst but hope for the best.
Crypto and BTC is currently sitting in murky waters at the moment and sadly there's nothing we can do about it. We didn't get the excitement and pump we expected for the last time, and maybe there's more pain for another 8 months and we begin to recover again and again.
Best case scenario
There's still the possibility that we only get to see a further 5 to 10% dump and then we're done. Or, we're almost at the bottom.
Hive & others
On a brighter side too, chains like Hive are currently among the ones currently surviving, most of the ones that raised $80M and even more have gone down the drain, with no sustainable community or innovation, and from an external point of view, this is something that almost no one is giving Hive credits for.
This isn't to see we haven't stalled, we've pretty much not been up and doing, and if we probably want to catch the next wave, then the witnesses will have to start getting seriously creative to move this chain higher.
I saw a post today and something on Hive (I don't want to disclose) and it felt really good. As for the broad alt market, I think some shiny new things will begin to spring up very soon by the end of 2027, let's see how it goes.
By the end of 2027?
It is too far yet...
Let's just talk about 2026 first...
I think hive will go up to 0.1$ in very few months... What do you think?
Well I honestly don't know, I'm mostly being speculative based on previous market actions from the various cycles, but you might be right though.
As we have witnessed the hype in Hive, this seems to be as it is now ready to go back to it's actual value;
Hive was at $0.07 when I checked this afternoon. Still not encouraging.
I'm patiently waiting to claim my first real money from Sosovalue airdrop. They said June, 12th.
I think we are into this at least until end of 2026
No earlier than that. But is good, going up and down in between set parameters provide a lot of opportunity to make money.
We'll see what comes on down the road. It's become way too unpredictable... Things could take a serious upswing recovery or drop down the drain. Hive had a nice pump, followed by the dump of course. Someone made a play and probably made some good money off the deal! Just not me...
Hopefully things will turn around soon, all we can do is hope for the best!
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I saw some crypto assets pump, but now I think most of them took a dive back. I still have high hopes when it comes to crypto investments but now more than ever we need to pick careful the "winning" tokens. And there aren't many that will perform and provide decent returns.
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