Firstly: welcome back! I hope you are relaxed and that you had an enjoyable time!
At the core of market psychology is the herd mentality
So painfully true.
People are by nature, after all, risk-averse.
Also very true.
You already know my feelings on another big dip (that there won't be one). My thoughts are that the bulls don't think that the current price isn't worth buying into, rather they are still afraid that the bears may continue to do what you say they will (drop the prices further). I still think there is WAY too much focus on the traditional financial markets and their take on crypto right now, especially futures. This focus and it's associated fears are unfounded in the long-term, but good old herd mentality is difficult to break! Right now I think we'll just continue to bounce along at current prices until the market becomes bullish again. I still predict a big bullish phase in 2018.
Thanks! Had a great time! Just what I needed.
Yep, I agree that there is too much focus on those things. During bull runs they were enough to create massive spikes but during a bear run it doesn't mean anything unless, well, it means something. Like, actual Bitcoins being bought with actual millions. What's happening now is them all setting the stage but it will take a long time before it has any effect. It's not going to be one day some stock exchange does something and bam the whole world goes crazy and buys in, I think.
The real catalyst is going to be the halvening that's coming at +/- 2020. I think it played a big role in the last bullrun too. This is why I am leaning towards thinking that we will not start the next bull-run until we are closer to this mark, and why I think mid-2019 it may start to become clear we are bullish again. April, leading up to September, with another parabolic move in December? Something like that is my gut feeling.
Why the halvening? Because it's a tangible change to the market, not speculative.
Also, this time-frame would coincide perfectly with all the institutions setting up their trading desks and other financial tools. They're working on it now, but by mid 2019 the first ones will start actually servicing clients.