The long-term Bitcoin pattern repeat (again) - latest update

in #cryptocurrency3 years ago

As semi-promised yesterday, today I bring you another look at the long-term BTC price movement, and more specifically, the repetition of a 5 year old pattern.

Two months ago I did this exercise; comparing the pattern of 2013-2015 with that of 2017/2018. I felt it necessary because people were misinterpreting the pattern. They were comparing the time of the pattern in the past one for one with the time of the current pattern i.e. they were equating the two x-axes of the patterns. At one and the same time, they scaled the y-axes (price) to be equal in height. Common sense 101 tells you that this is incorrect. Scaling one axis and not the other distorts the pattern. The pattern changes shape if you shrink the price axis but not the time axis. Sadly I still see that many traders/analysts continue to make this mistake.

What I do is to scale the two axes until the two patterns are equal (in height and length) and can then be compared on a one-to-one basis. This gets rid of the distortion that many others seem content to ignore and it throws away their argument that we still have a long way to go before the next bullish phase.

I thought about what I am going to say in this post before I realised this: I have said it all before already. Yes, I got one or two points wrong, but the message remains the same. So read my last long-term post if you feel you require a narrative. If not, dive straight on in. I have prepared two main charts for you today: The first one is the 2013-2015 chart. All I want you to do is compare it to the second chart, the 2017/2018 one. I believe that they are following a repeating pattern. I also believe that this pattern will soon conclude. I believe that a bullish market lies thereafter. To aid in comparing the two, I have annotated the charts with identical numbers (using Elliott Wave tools). So here they are folks. Look at them yourself. I've done all the labelling and the scaling for you, you just need to compare them and draw your own conclusions. Remember, while human behaviour remains largely the same, the market is not compelled to behave exactly the same as before. Hence, the charts are similar not identical!

The long-term Bitcoin pattern repeat (again) - latest update

2013-2015

2017/2018

The very end bit is understandably a bit wobbly (as market uncertainty sets in with weak bulls and weak bears), but I know what I think the future holds looking at those two charts!

To assist with perspective, here is how they fit into the bigger picture:

Foot note:

BTC reached the top short-term resistance line today (as discussed in yesterday's post). It may now drop in price (likely), or interesting things may start to happen, as must be the case sooner or later.

Yours in crypto,
Bit Brain

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by Bit Brain

It is only a matter of time....patterns repeat...the emotional cycles will remain the same

Indeed. We are creatures of habit.

Previous bottom seemed to have had a capitulation bottom before the rise higher... even though it will be painful, I think it is the healthiest path...

3 years ago (edited)

I would call it "just another bottom". I think the term "capitulation" implies an All Time Low (at least for that pattern), but the previous one had already been lower than the "capitulation bottom" during the pattern. To translate that to today: I can see another hit of the \$5.9k support, maybe a few hits, but I don't see it being breeched.

Interesting comparison! No matter if up or down, November might become a very volatile month.

That's about the only certainty we have right now!

good work...you may want to see my "take" on my posts...using sentiment...see my calls since Jan.! FOLLOWING!

Thanks, I'll be sure to take a look!

I don't agree with your elliott wave count but you are right to look at the repetition of patterns

😅 Sorry, I should have clarified, that's by no means an Elliott Wave count! I was merely using the Elliott Wave tool to number the two charts.

You have some great knowledge in trading :)

Thanks. Sounds interesting. If it's honest work (I don't believe in lying to my readers - I tell it like it is) then perhaps we can work together.