I've been watching the price action for ETC/BTC for about a week now as I felt that the price of ETC against BTC was holding above the 50% retrace from high when many other currencies and coins have fallen off a cliff.
I have made an assumption that this is a solid coin and not an overly hyped alt. It has a real purpose and will stand the test of time. Therefore the price action will not swing drastically as a consequence of it being over-traded.
Of late the price has started to come down significantly against the dollar: https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/596d10cc90d5c and begun to retrace. I expected the price of ETC against BTC to follow. However, I believe, that the price of ETC against BTC has remained resilient as a consequence of the BTC price falling in last 4 days against the dollar - it has therefore devalued in terms of it's spending power on cryptos and the price of ETC against BTC has been held up. The BTC price has now come up again and I believe that ETC is nearly a viable swing trade with two entry points.
I have mainly used a 50% and a 61.8% Fibonacci retrace from highs as a guide for my trade decision but also looked at the following:
- The MACD score is low
- There is lower volume
- On the weekly graph (see below) the price is getting to a point where it coincides simultaneously with the lower Bollinger Band, the 50% retrace from highs, with 1 and 2 above.
- The only area where there is support for my entry level was back on the 12th July. This also coincides with the 50% retrace level.
SO my entry point has a number of confirmations for support at 0.00685.
I second entry level at 0.00665 if it comes down that far as this is approximately half way between the 50% and the 61.8 retrace.
I am in this trade for the medium so will not be setting a stop but if I were to use a stop it would be at circa the 72% retracement level circa 0.00639 - there was support for this on the 12th July at 2.45am. If the price were to break through here I would expect it to keep going down.
I will takes 80% of the trade off the table at 0.007600 BTC - there is significant resistance there and let the rest of the trade run to be reassessed in September.
I will watch for these increases and retraces as I hope to benefit from the consistency of this coin.
PS The usual caveat - I'm not a financial advisor. I'm a teacher/education consultant. Please do your own analysis and come to your own trading views. These are just my opinions. If I got it right every time I'd be writing this article on a beach not sitting in my study in North Wales..... Hope this has been at least a little interesting if not helpful. Take care out there and don't believe the hype......