20/07/2019/22:00CET
Crypto markets are quite volatile at the moment, searching for the direction? Maybe we can find it together...
BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp
- Trading at 10911USD at press time.
- We have had a frightening retest of the high 9k levels in the last 5 days
- But support was found at this level and a powerful bounce has been upheld by the bulls
- There is definitely a real floor at the high 9k levels.
- We had punched well through the 50SMA but the rally afterwards has us back at hte 21DEMA again
- All eyes are on a daily candle close about this important momentum indicator
- Volumes are healthy on the green candles which is a nice sign of resiliance of the 10k support
BTCUSD Weekly on Bitstamp
- I always fall back to this view to get a grip on the emotions that can drive stupid trading with the high volatility we have had in the last weeks.
- The theory of bouncing off the 21WEMA would mean that we still ahve to have a candle wick touch down to 8k before heading to new highs.
- Will it happen is a subject that is sure to stir emotions amongst crypto traders.
- But no doubt is that eyes are on #Bitcoin at the moment as the leader in the crypto complex.
- Altcoin season fans are still waiting for their time in the sun.
- In this view we can see the the 9100 level has been an important price to watch.
- I would bet that there are a lot of stop loss trades hanging around this 9-9.1k level
- Meaning if a break of this level was to happen, a test of 8k would have a high probability
My take
- Not being one who wants to overcomplicate trading with too much TA, I think we are setting a floor at the 10k at the moment. With each passing day we hang around at this 10-11k area, we solidify this floor.
- I believe that any dips below 10k are agressively bought by accumulators. Those of us that have seen at least 2 of the cycle and know that it is almost irrelevant if you buy at 9900 or 10900, you will be a happy camper when we are at the 45k-60k levels in the near future. Is that near future weeks away? I doubt it, but it is a reasonable bet that by the end of 2020 we will be there.
- My quiet assumption is we will have a 20x to 40x run this time from the lows (3100usd). i.e. 60k-120k peak
- I'd like to think myself smart enough this time to sell into at least the 20x area and hopfully average into the 40x zone with my trading capital.
- If history repeats again, as it has at least 5 times, there will be again an 80% retracement from lets say teh 100k level which will bring us to the most recent ATH of 20k for the next accumulation phase and buy in for maybe a 10x - 20x run. Which could potentially be 400k by 2023.
- This sounds absurd! I know. And I am breaking one of my rules about predictions, but I want to share what I think are reasonable probabilities considering history.
- These assumptions ignore that something happens to the underlying technology which fundamentally changes the terrain.
- And when quoting prices in USD, I am ignoring inflation. To keep it simple, I am assuming 0 inflation. i.e. purchasing power of 1USD is the same in 2023 as it is today. But off course, it may spike, and if 1 USD today has the same purchasing power as 10USD in 2023, then my predictions need to be likewise adjusted to match (400k = 4 mill)
Alt coins
- At the moment, one could say we have alt season!
- Where Bitcoin has only had about a 5% move in the last 24 hours, a sort from the top 100 by best movers in the last 24h has the top 20 well into the double digit percentage gains.
- Of the top 10 by market cap, only Bitcoin SV is in the top 10 movers. (shrug)
- The next big ones are Cardano and Tron both over 11% gainers in the last 24h
My take
- I still feel there is some ways to go to flush out the garbage from the last alt coin run.
- The flush will be not what we have experience so far.
- I believe it will play out when serious alts with legs will simply leave the rest of the pack behind. The wider the gap in gains, the more re-positioning there will be as shit coins are dumped into BTC (pumping BTC) and then that capital being funneled into the running alts, giving them those crazy 20,30 and 50% daily jumps with small retraces.
- I have my ideas on which ones will be the runners but I have only my gut to back up my convictions
- I also thing there will be new players that will suddenly be in the top 20 list and take the space by storm.
Guys, I leave you like this. My predictions are pretty weak, but as I said, I am getting more and more convinced that if you want to make real returns out of cryptos this time, trade less and trade smarter. The big cycle is where the big money will be made.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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I feel the crypto markets needs to flush soon before the FED lowers rates, easy money means high crypto prices.
I guess when the perceived risk parity leans toward piling into the all time high stock markets