20/05/2019/22:00CET
#Bitcoin has spike again but made lower highs. What does this mean? Lets take a look at the chart and see.
BTCUSD Daily on Bitstamp
- BTC is trading at USD7830 at press time after making a high of 8299 yesterday. This high was posted after a rather sharp pull back that saw BTC at 6178 just 4 days ago. Quite volatile you may say, welcome back to crypto!
- We have pull back over 5% from the most recent high and it feels like there is not enough oomph to push BTC to make a new high.
- I stick with my prognosis that there has to be a cool of and a retest of some earlier RS line before we can make a more sustainable higher price.
- I think odds are on for a pull back to either the 5600 or the 5100 range.
- I would welcome such a pullback and be even happier if we spend a little time (at least a couple of days) down there.
- But as we should all know by now, there is just probabilities, no certainties when it comes to the future movement of a market
- The odds for breaking 3100 and setting new lower lows is insignificant. But not zero.
- Does this mean the bear is banished and the bull reigns? With each passing day, this seems to be so. But after waking up day after day after day to see every rally fizzle, we are all a little shell shocked and disbelieving that the battle is over.
Bonus material
Occasionally I look at other indicators to get an idea of what is going on in the market. Charts are great but also limited. News sites and social medial is great but so hard to make any objective call on overall sentiment. So Google trends is a kind of standardised measure of sentiment we can use to get another perspective on things
- This is a search interest chart from google for the term_bitcoin_. The duration is the last 2 years.
- It has not been so high since March 2018!
- It will be interesting to see how this trend plays out. If we do retest the mid to low 5k, will this uptrend reverse?
Of lower value unless you dig a bit is the regional interests
- I don't know how google is calculating this. Is it over the same time span as the search time series? (If I dial back the time range to 7 days, Sth Africa is now 3rd. Still quite high. Nigeria is first!)
- Australia is also quite high on the list
- Japan is last on the list.
As always guys, leave comments, have fun and trade safe.
Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. Before investing any funds do your own research and make your own decisions. Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative.
And finally: Do not invest money you are not comfortable losing.
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Tom Lee of FundStrat is giving all kinds of interviews promising the moon again, he might be right, more trade war might push people on to the blockchain like never before.
One side of me also thinks this way, but that same side was telling me all through 2018 that people are about to wake up and realise the clusterfuck we have as a financial system and migrate en mass to Crypto.
It never happened.
"The market can stay irrational much longer that you can stay solvent"
The other side of me says be patient and study the charts. Do not do it with hubris and avoid overlaying your own biases. Take the opposite argument to any analysis you come up with and try and poke holes in it.
This other side of me really insists on devoting a shit load of energy.
An amount that my other side is too lazy to do.
Who said being a trader is easy money?
I call BS