I have researched the 2013/2014 bear market and although I see similarities I dont feel it will last as long.. That bear market went up 10x in just one month and it was pretty much only bitcoin. This one has maybe gone up 7x from june to its peak in dec. over 6 months and its with over 1600 cryptos and bitcoin dominance is only around 40% now. I feel like there are a lot more people who are investing and belive in the market and we now have some use case coins so I have a hard time believing the bear market will last much longer than a year. I could be wrong ofcourse and an economic collapse could really fuck things up for cryptos but if that doesn't happen I think we will good 2 go by the end of the year.. like you said, so many people are asking me about cryptos now.. people are interested, they are just getting scared out of it with all this FUD.
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Yes I agree the scale is off. Last bubble went much faster while this bubble was much more drawn out in comparison. But that worries me more than it soothes me: if the rise was more drawn out, shouldn't the decline be more drawn out as well?
I understand what you're saying about adoption and hype being different, but I can vividly remember the same emotions and market sentiment last time around. Sometimes I wonder if it plays a role at all, or whether it's all really just market cycles in graphs that are inevitable.
I certainly hope we will see a shorter crypto winter than last time though. My gut tells me you're right, that this time it's different. But really, my gut is the prime candidate to be fooled by the market, because that's what the market is best at: fooling us all.
If it were easy to beat the market, we'd all be rich.
That's why I hodl and don't worry about it. I can't win at 'their' game, so I'm not playing it. I have patience and years and years to spend patiently waiting - enough to be confident I can sit it out.