For the past few days I've pointed out 2 possible paths bitcoin may be following. Both forecasted the rising price we've been witnessing. However, depending on which scenario we're in, the longer term path is quite different. Let's quickly recap.
The first possible path is a very bullish. It has bitcoin having completed a WXY pattern and currently in 5 waves up. I've outlined the primary waves in blue and the sub-waves in orange.
Zooming in, you can more clearly see the sub-waves. It appears bitcoin is currently on sub-wave 3, which has a target of $8,713. The primary wave 1 target is approximately $9,040.
The second scenario is bearish. It has bitcoin having completed 5 waves down and currently in an ABC correction. If this count is correct, it may play out like this.
Yesterday I mentioned the 8 day EMA looked like it may cross above the 21 day EMA. This ended up happening, which is a rather bullish sign. The next step we'll be looking for is the 8 day EMA to cross above the 55 day EMA. This would be a strong sign of an overall up trend.
If you're unfamilar with how to use EMA's, refer to my post on the topic here: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@workin2005/simple-effective-strategy-to-buying-and-selling-market-trends
I pointed out yesterday a strong resistance at 53.79 on the 4 hour RSI. It has since broken above that resistance which is another very bullish sign.
The 4 hour MACD has remained within the wedge I outlined yesterday. As it moves closer to the apex, a stronger breakout becomes more likely.
The market is obviously showing signs of strength, but the volume remains relatively weak. If this is in fact an impulse wave up, we need to see the volume increase.
BIAS:
Short Term: Neutral
Longterm: Very Bullish
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Thanks for stopping by.
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Disclaimer: I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT financial advice. Please always do your own research and invest responsibly. Technical analysis is simply a guide. It doesn’t predict the future. Anyone that claims they know exactly what’s going to happen is foolish, lying or both. Technical Analysis should only be used as a tool to help make better decisions. If you enter a trade, I recommend having a stop loss and sticking to it. You will loose at times. The key is to have more wins than losses. With that in mind, I wish you great success.
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Excellent analysis...as usual. Would love to hear your thoughts on Stellar (XLM) and/or VeChain.
Thanks...Both VeChain and Stellar are great coins. I own both and am very bullish on their future. I'll try to post some analysis if I have time.
You're da-man! Keep up the great work.
And just so bulls don't forget, shorts have battled back and pushed the RSI back under the resistance for now, under the 8400 mark. Resolution of this bottoming process, whether we've reached that inflection point or not, continues to push further out during the month of May. Now bulls are hoping for June to be the month when a new bull market begins.
I'll keep repeating this...Until we get regulatory clarity from the SEC, we won't see a major bull run. The market needs new money to enter. New money won't enter until they know the rules. Mark my words...if the SEC classifies ethereum (and other tokens) as security, we'll see a drop in bitcoin to at least $5K. If they say ethereum is NOT a security, we'll see a bull run that will make 2017 look like nothing. I don't think they'll label ETH a security, but who knows....this is uncharted territory. Anything could happen.