(sorry if I am saying something someone already wrote in German)
I think that we should make difference between unpredictable for most people (in some group, country...) and unpredictable for individuals experts in a certain field of life. We can more accurate predict events or behaviors of others if we have more information about them, if we are familiar with a topic. That leads us to the responsibility of experts to take some action if estimated probability of some dangerous event is high. With that, question of possibilities for individuals to spread the word is rising (few Russian doctors that "fell" through the window of the hospital after speaking publicly) and with it, question of people-in-power interests.
This is interesting and wide topic.
My thoughts about black swan are going in a direction of long term or permanent changes in human behavior (regression in both, individual and collective level). I.ve mention that in my post about new normal :)
You are viewing a single comment's thread from: