Great overview of the macro. I'm starting to see your thesis play out in the micro. Chips and technology stocks for instance are showing topping patterns (higher high on lower RSI). If their leadership stalls and there is no rotation into cyclicals like industrials or financials then we are headed considerably lower. It'll be a huge test of crypto markets if/when this happens. PS - I'm not sure people understand how accurate inverted yield curves are at predicting recessions. They're pretty spot on and have a lot to do with most economies being based on debt these days. Bumpy ride ahead for sure.
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