"...evidently people will only ever act in their own self interest."
The limited dataset cannot provide reasonable statistical confidence in this statement. Indeed, it is purely anecdotal, and there are examples of individuals demonstrably acting altruistically that disprove it. The existence of high trust societies in fact suggest that over time altruism becomes more profitable to individuals than profiteering, because the creation of high trust societies is more valuable to individuals than hoards of resources, because valuable resources only have value in society. The classical trope of an immortal dragon guarding a fabulous hoard of gold in complete and brutal isolation demonstrates this principle was not unknown long ago. Steem well demonstrates that the weak decentralization of resources failed to enable enough actors to attain to resources to cause enough resources to reach anyone wise enough to act altruistically and create a strong enough society to persist. Hive demonstrates the result of that failure today, as does Steem, as both continue to decline in users to the point of complete and utter failure.
"...linear rewards made self-voting the dominant financial strategy — a user with a $98 vote could earn $980/day self-voting versus ~$120/day from curation. Vote-selling bots (bidbots) exploded. Multiple sources confirm "interest in vote selling bots increased with HF19 greatly."
This demonstrates that lack of decentralization prevented rational management. That self voting and bidbots were ever allowed by the code reflects the incompetence of management. The state of Hive today is due entirely to their stupidity and failure to limit profiteering in order to facilitate societal growth. The whales were like pirates fighting over their stolen treasure in a cave on a desert island, where the ship necessary to enable them to enjoy their wealth is burned to the waterline during the dispute, and the survivors are left to admire their useless hoard that has lost all value. A society of vampires cannot eat all the normies without starving themselves to death and inevitably dwindles to one last vampire that has eaten all their peers starving in solitude and regret.
"...dust-level micro-abuse..."
This phrase reflects insipid elitism in which poverty is viewed as abuse of the wealthy by those completely unaware of the source of wealth. Further praising parasitism of the weak as 'most sophisticated' demonstrates unfamiliarity with the difference between merit and theft. Lack of education seems to be the likely reason for this blatant stupidity which could easily be cured by gaining familiarity with a shovel. Such conceit is almost unfathomable to me, despite millennia of familiarity with the problem related in ancient religious parables and myths, such as 'it is easier for a rich man to thread the eye of a needle than get to heaven', and 'the poor will always be with us...', and the above mentioned trope about immortal dragons guarding hoards.
Fortunately decentralization of the means of production being the forefront of technological advance will inevitably decentralize wealth as distribution of of means of production eliminates parasitism profiteers utterly depend on today. Merit, not avarice, has value in rational systems, which the laws of physics demonstrate and vampires are too stupid to grasp.
"A blockchain earning 0% real returns on its token supply should, by this logic, have 0% "spending.""
This ignores input of cash into the system by new users that buy stake, which has been the primary sustenance of the vampiric elites that did not buy their stake, but mined it for the most part before Steem went public. As their rapine avarice has continually destroyed user retention, and that further poisoned the market for Steem/Hive by users that fled being censored and functionally banned/debanked by being flagged 100% of all rewards for every post and comment - the mechanism whereby distribution of stake was prevented from decentralizing governance - choking off the influx of new users and the income of the vampires.
The comparison of large datasets to the relatively tiny blockchain exacerbates the misunderstanding by failing to correctly adjust confidence intervals appropriately, which makes the tiny group of financial elites, concentrated in financially illiterate coders due to the mechanism of mining stake, all but incomparable to the wider world. One outlier competent to grasp the only way to sustainably increase income is to altruistically distribute stake to creators can completely change statistical outcome when the total body of wealth is limited to ~36 whales. Unfortunately none have arisen to date, and the execrable parasitism continues unabated.
"The US experience was "a particularly favorable climate for asset returns."
It is important that practical understanding be applied to such metrics. 'Pigs get fattened, but hogs get slaughtered.'--Anonymous Lacking practical experience in wealth production limits the utility of metrics to profiteers.
"Hive's terminal 0.95% rate draws legitimate concern: at that level, the reward pool would fund only ~0.62% annually for content rewards, staking returns drop to ~0.14% APR, and DHF funding becomes minimal."
Ignoring the confounding profiteering by flagging new users into dust to extract their input of fiat conceals the actual relevance of inflation and growth. By eliminating growth profiteers have eliminated the ability of growth to render inflation to deflationary pricing of the token. The specific mechanisms responsible for failure are important in the effort to produce success. For example the 'Stewards of Gondor' experiment seems not to inform your analyses, in which modest delegations of stake were availed trusted curation accounts (cheating curators self voting were able to be quickly weeded out by withdrawing their delegations) to encourage new users by upvoting quality posts. This was enormously successful - so the account funding the experiment was crushed by the vampiric whales because it demonstrated their weakness and vulnerability to growth that distributing stake would deprive of total control of governance by maintaining a bare majority of stake selecting witnesses.
Were high trust societies impossible, they would not have arisen and we would not exist. The fact that none have emerged in the ~10 years since social media became possible is not proof that they cannot emerge. Given time to evolve social media will mirror cultural evolution by producing high trust societies that will outcompete neofeudalism, because decentralization outcompetes centralization. This is exactly why that will not be allowed to happen, as WWIII is being imposed to forcibly destroy free speech that is existentially fundamental to civil society. Just as profiteers have reduced Hive to <2000 organic users today, poising the platform on the precipice of utter destruction, so actual vampire banksters controlling geopolitics today through horrific corruption by blackmail, bribery, and brutal violence are wholly intent on genocidal destruction of civil society globally, because they will prefer to rule hell than be peers in paradise.
"All DPoS systems are pretty much centralized."
This is only true if they are also plutocratic. When the only metric determining governance is stake - which is not necessary in DPoS - then the golden rule applies and them with the gold rule. However, Ned proposed oracles and 1a1v before giving up in disgust and selling the Founder's stake to Sun Yuchen. DPoS does not need to be wholly plutocratic, and by enabling 1a1v to apply to governance, the separation of governance from stake is able to restrain parasitic excess and prevent the death spiral Hive is currently suffering. Ned failed to have the intestinal fortitude requisite to overcome the vampires, and this has caused Hive to fail in turn.
"The transition from vertical to horizontal governance has historically required intermediate institutions — guilds, parliaments, constitutions — not revolutionary redesign. Pixa should adopt incremental governance reforms (quadratic voting elements, reputation weighting, time-locked staking bonuses) alongside its reward curve."
Oracles are facile today. Simply hashing biometric data enables sorting individual people from socks and AI bots (there's more to it, but that's the fundamental mechanism that enables real people to be allowed to participate in governance and prevent Sybil attacks), and plutocracy is able to be prevented from spiraling into destruction. If the voting mechanism only has a hash, free speech is able to be sustained by preventing KYC from destroying dissent. By simply making governance wholly voluntary, forking dissent into discrete platforms, the power of evolution will rapidly result in high trust society dominating global financial markets. Social media became the dominant sector of the global financial market in only ~10 years, and the ability of an actual user owned free speech platform to out perform flawed platforms will probably take far less time, IMHO.
After this you cite some papers and make a lot of good sense. Particularly regarding fairness, because it is demonstrable on Hive that ~36 whales (currently 43) have consistently maintained a lock on governance in a winner take all system that excludes anyone or any group from exerting any influence on governance besides begging overlords to have mercy, and by this total control of governance enable that oligarchy to extract >90% of rewards from the pool of inflation.
"Pure linear (Hive post-HF25) has no anti-Sybil properties and makes self-voting the financially dominant strategy."
I am not aware of a lot of self voting, as it has been strongly discouraged in the established culture and even whales are sensitive to being remonstrated for such blatant rapine. However, there is a HBDfunder post by Arcange to which Arcange posts dozens of blank comments regularly that whales upvote at 100% strength until they deplete their VP. This enables them to maximize their curation rewards, as the comment declines author rewards, so whales upvoting it split all rewards for the post as curation rewards. This enables them to maximize their ROI and dominance of inflation issued from the rewards pool without sharing a single satoshi with actual content creators, exemplifying their avarice and disdain for the community and the platform. Additionally HF28 eliminated the VP depletion curve, and made it easier to deplete VP by making each upvote equal in value. I noticed that post-HF28 I could quickly deplete my VP and then needed to desist from voting on posts and comments for 5 days to recharge it fully. This reduced the little work necessary for whales to deplete their VP and maximize their ROI by upvoting the HBDfunder comments once a week or so.
"...set the threshold low enough that a post with 3–5 genuine community upvotes already operates in the linear region. This preserves comment rewards and small-creator accessibility (the primary complaint that led to HF25's return to pure linear) while maintaining mathematical Sybil resistance at the spam level."
That is why comments have been practically defunded on Hive, and the dust threshold is ~$.02, preventing pesky Hive users from extracting any of the precious rewards from the pool the oligarchy of ~36 whales want all to themselves.
"Free downvote allocation (separate from upvote mana): The most effective anti-abuse tool across Steem/Hive history, enabling community immune response without cost to the downvoter's curation power."
After extensive discussions with Marky and HW, whom are amongst, if not the most prolific and substantive DownVoters on Hive, it has been confirmed that DV's do little to discourage spam or scams, and are useful only to discourage malicious actions, such as plagiarism, that seeks to profit from post rewards. Spammers often have no monetary motivation at all, but are protesting what they consider is unfair treatment (see BPCvoter and KgaKaKillerG, for example), while scammers usually are seeking access to active keys so they just drain accounts, and have little or no interest in post rewards, which is all DV's tax. What DV's do actually achieve is censorship, and functionally banning/debanking targeted accounts. Rarely does someone get DV'd once for some bad behaviour, but DV's are often set to zero out all their posts and comments in perpetuity, eliminating their ability to earn from participating in social intercourse, and often attacking their reputation, which can cause their posts not to appear without proactively clicking to reveal them. This almost exclusively targets political speech and dissent, preventing groups from forming that might challenge the status quo. If your goal is to censor speech, by all means use DV's. That's what they do best, besides returning rewards to the pool where the whales get a crack at extracting them again. They do work to discourage plagiarism because that is an attempt to gain upvotes with stolen content, but there are other mechanisms that will work equally well against plagiarism and do not lend themselves to censorship and debanking for dissent, and also work against spam and scams.
"Reward curators who find quality content before it trends, not those who pile onto already-popular posts. This dampens the Matthew Effect at the curation level."
Curation rewards are simply a mechanism that enables whales to extract rewards from the pool without doing any work. As can be seen on any platform that has upvotes that do not provide emuneration to the voter, curation rewards are unnecessary to incentivize people to upvote content they agree with, like, and etc. Curation rewards simply reduce author rewards, and enable the oligarchy to gain more of the rewards from the pool without having to get upvotes for their posts. Most whales hardly even post. In fact, the more stake an account has, the less likely or often they are to post. Curation rewards, witness rewards, and DHF proposal income are amongst the most emunerative mechanisms on Hive, and for this reason the oligarchy seeks to decrease author rewards to the degree possible.
"Use quadratic voting for witness elections and DHF proposals to reduce plutocratic governance concentration..."
Better yet, simply use 1a1v with hashing to prove each vote is from a unique person, and proportionally extract funds from those that approve a proposal. This makes proposals 100% voluntary, and no one is forced to pay for something they do not want to fund. Enable witness votes to deplete VP either all for one witness, or as the vote wishes to allocate their witness VP. As you point out enabling each person to cast 30 full weight witness votes creates an 30x advantage for whales compared to less substantial stakes. Better to simply all voters to assign their stake as they prefer, 1x, whether they split it across 30, 20, or 5 witnesses, or simply assign it all to one witness. However, stake weighted voting simply enables the most acquisitive profiteers to gain political power.
Use a different metric than stake for governance, or only use stake for a portion of the VP applied to governance. The use of oracles to differentiate between unique persons, and exclude bots and socks used to Sybil attack governance voting, enables use of any other metric to weight votes, or none at all, and simply have mob rule, pure democracy. If that mechanism is employed, be sure to allow votes to be changed at will at any time, so support for persons that do not fulfill campaign promises, or for initiatives that do not provide the benefits that were claimed, can be withdrawn without delay, and eliminate the benefit of lying from elections. Further, make all representation voluntary. If someone does not vote for a witness the chain they are on does not include that witness. If someone does not vote for a proposal, they do not receive any benefits from that proposal, nor fund it. Because cross chain functionality has become possible, each community can determine for itself what witnesses serve blocks, how rewards are allocated, and what kinds of proposals, features, and limitations on speech they feature, and all Hive-based chains can interact per their voluntary participation in them. There is no reason anymore to force representation on anyone, subjugate them to wealthier censors, or compel their participation against their will for any reason. Hive can become 100% voluntarist by this means.
Sadly, none of this will matter soon, because KYC biometric ID will be forced on everyone for access to the internet, which will eliminate dissent and force everyone to comply with social credit scores managed by AI. Perhaps worse, KYC is beginning to be imposed for even access to OSes, including Linux, which will exclude dissenters from even using computers they don't code the OS for personally. The internet as we have known it will cease to exist, unless network hardware that is not owned by overlords is used to communicate. The owners of the hardware communications require can impose any restrictions, limitations, or demands they choose, at their sole option and whim, for access to their property, and they will turn every NFT or token into a CBDC by imposing social credit scores managed by AI to do so.
Thanks!