Before I say anything, I 'm going to say I love drug wars. I love it so much, in fact, I was planning on making my own Mafia Wars clone for Steem for months now. I never got far in coding it, but I really wanted to bring this game to Steem and someone beat me to it. I have no hard feelings, I'm actually glad because it allows me to see how it plays out and see if it would be successful or not and how they handle the issues I struggled with in my mind.
Either way, I can see do it as I had a completely different theme and twist on the game that would set it apart from both Mafia Wars and Drug Wars.
Now for the bitter truth
I have a habit of analyzing everything and avoid the fluff and pretty packaging. Something I have been doing since Drug Wars was announced.
One thing that concerned me is how the reward pool works. When the game launched, all transactions paid to the Drug Wars game goes to what I will refer to as the reward pool.
From the reward pool the funds are split:
- 20% to developers
- 80% to players
From that 80%, 8% is used on a daily basis. Initially, this was set to 7% to the daily prize pool which is a passive reward system for active players and 1% to the daily heist, the burn mechanism of the game to prevent economy inflation.
Burn is a necessary evil in games to prevent inflation. While this is normally just virtual coins that have no real value in the real world, Drug Wars is different. In Drug Wars you spend and earn real money in the form of Steem. This changes the dynamics of the game a lot, the majority of players will play for economic reasons and not for entertainment purposes.
Here's the thing about those economic reasons. When you look at Drug Wars it is very hard to separate it from the underlying economic and sustainability issues.
Drug Wars pays players to play the game using 80% of the money coming in. In fact it's right in the logo.
All players expect they will make money playing the game, and I'd venture most people are playing with expectation of an ROI.
If you spend 100 Steem to play the game, at some point most players expect to have 101 Steem at some point in the future as a direct result of the game but only 80 Steem is in the reward pool to fund that. Where does this money come from?
The moment you say new players you have just described a Ponzi Scheme. I really hate using that word, I really love Drug Wars and I want to see more like it, but when you remove the game from the equation, the game pays old players with money coming from new players. At some point when there are no new players old players do not get paid. If you got in early, you are going to do really well. You get in late, well not so much. In fact, you will likely lose money.
But it is a game!
It is, and that's why I really hate using the P word. The last time I checked, 21 people spent over 1,000 Steem on Drug Wars. The number in reality is far far higher as many are running alts and it is hard to know the total spend. The majority of these people didn't spend this money "because it is a game", they spent it because the potential return on investment or ROI.
But what does that ROI look like?
This is my projection of the ROI in the next 30 days. If you made 100 Steem today playing Drug Wars, tomorrow you will make around 91.50 Steem without investing more money. The next day 83.72 Steem. In a week or two when battles are re-introduced, that 100 Stem will be anywhere between 58.68 Steem to 31.51 Steem a day. Depending if it takes one or two weeks.
In 30 days, your daily 100 Steem/day profit will actually be around 7.61 Steem. If users upgrade their buildings using in game resources and do not use Steem, your ROI will be even less.
30 Day ROI projection
| Day | ROI % |
|---|---|
| 1 | 100.00 |
| 2 | 91.50 |
| 3 | 83.72 |
| 4 | 76.61 |
| 5 | 70.09 |
| 6 | 64.14 |
| 7 | 58.68 |
| 8 | 53.70 |
| 9 | 49.13 |
| 10 | 44.96 |
| 11 | 41.13 |
| 12 | 37.64 |
| 13 | 34.44 |
| 14 | 31.51 |
| 15 | 28.83 |
| 16 | 26.38 |
| 17 | 24.14 |
| 18 | 22.09 |
| 19 | 20.21 |
| 20 | 18.49 |
| 21 | 16.92 |
| 22 | 15.48 |
| 23 | 14.17 |
| 24 | 12.96 |
| 25 | 11.86 |
| 26 | 10.85 |
| 27 | 9.93 |
| 28 | 9.09 |
| 29 | 8.31 |
| 30 | 7.61 |
ROI Example
If you spent 100 Steem to upgrade your Drug Wars character 5 days ago you would make 8.7 Steem or 9% ROI. Today you would have made 5.961 Steem or 6.41% ROI.
This is based on purely upgrading drug production and nothing related to Alcohol, Weapons, or Troops and purely playing for maximum ROI.
100 Steem 5 Day ROI Analysis
| Day | Payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.093 Steem | 8.702% |
| 2 | 7.583 Steem | 8.154% |
| 3 | 7.119 Steem | 7.655% |
| 4 | 6.514 Steem | 7.004% |
| 5 | 5.961 Steem | 6.410% |
But it is just a game
If you play it such and enjoy, awesome! I plan on playing it and I am looking forward to Clan battles. But you need to know before you get too "invested" in the game the reality of how the economics work (or ultimately don't).
Unless the developers inject more than 20% of the initial spend into the game, many people will come out below their "investment". I made one suggestion on how to do this, but it isn't enough to cover the size of the reward pool (12,790 Steem today) and the investment debt being built.
I had a lot of concerns about posting this, I don't want to spoil the fun or rain on anyone's parade, but I also think it needs to be said and people need to understand the risks.
In the end, it comes down don't invest more than you can afford to risk.
See you on the battlefield.
They are putting all payouts on their posts in the daily pool. This is not closing the 20% gap of course, but shows it can be closed or at least made smaller through some sort of ‘external’ funding.
Curious to see if you’re more or less motivated to launch your own version of drug/mafia wars ;-)
Posted using Partiko iOS
Unless they are making 64K+ steem via posts, it won't even remotely close the gap and that doesn't even factor in the many that will grossly exceed 100% ROI.
Indeed, posts won't be enough. Just making the point the game is not dependent on 'in game' spendings only.
I saw the team state on Discord 'don't play this game if you expect to make money from it' - should be reflected in the logo as well though :-)
the only thing I could see making a significant difference is if faction wars end up diverting a significant amount of Steem investment to buying troops. I mean you already see some of that with many of the largest initial investors dropping a ton of steem into troops - to whatever extent genuine rivalries and back and forth clan raids end up developing, I wouldn't be surprised to see larger players like bernie dropping a ton of steem on troops which basically subsidizes new players who just focus on drug production.
Yay for the untermensch that have better ROI than the rich. I would like to point you to my comment on the OP, which reveals that I have already attained an ROI above 100%.
I note that this bodes a future in which it is not scarcity, but abundance, which will impart power. You might well reflect on that aspect of the nature of Steem, as you could be one of the greatest beneficiaries of this new paradigm. Your current business model is the legacy which we have inherited from our forebears. You may find it possible to create a novel business model which profits from the potential of Steem to transcend that model. I don't doubt your ability to devise such, given your obvious intelligence.
It is certain that rebalancing will have to happen more than once going forward for Drugwars. It's also quite possible that you may be able to suggest other ways the devs might be happy to implement that potentiate greater ROI for well-heeled players like yourself. I hope you do.
I'd be bummed if I BTFO you and you took your ball and went home. I'd like to see a balance delicate enough that both of us were happily playing well into the future.
Wouldn't you?
Ads on the overview screen. Prime time ad space that DW could charge primo prices for. They have a lot of eyes on these pages. Shoot they could add a bar of adds on the left right and bottom. New advertisement bars on each tab. I bet we could sell 100/s of ad spots everyday within this game. We must accept ads tho.
You're not the boss of me.
I note that ads have both potential benefits and drawbacks. Given how ads have corrupted MSM and captured platforms for propagandists and censors, introducing ads to DW could do the same to DW as it has to CNN: render it completely devoid of utility for it's original purpose.
While I'm not saying that it definitely would do that, it is possible. I also don't think increased revenue from ads is necessary, and very much doubt it would be worth the risk at this point in the game particularly.
There are values in society other than economic, and these other values are actually far more valuable than money. Folks focused on money are fain to agree with this, and that but reveals the dishonesty or foolishness many of that ilk are prone to.
Mike Tyson said Don King would sell his momma for a dollar. While I appreciate that many people seek financial reward, I note than almost none of them agree that whoring out their mothers is a profitable undertaking. This is strong evidence supporting my thesis that society has far more valuable features than it's economy.
We do not have to accept ads, and unless it is acknowledged that ads have drawbacks, accepting ads is sure to have detrimental impact on DW. Only rational consideration of both positive and negative potential of ads will enable them to be successfully part of the game, and it's entirely possible they could be.
It's also possible that they can't be, and I'm ok with that too.
Ads won't make a dent on the dilution.
Really? Imagine 100 ads every day, from different sponsors(off blockchain sponsors), bringing in USD. Plus a profile with cosmetics and this game just became massively profitable. Add in a merch store and we are solid!
Posted using Partiko Android
Also say there are 10 ads. 30,000 is chump change to a large corporation. I understand that is pipedream to get a corporate sponsor, but GFuel just might go for it lol.
Posted using Partiko Android
Well I play another game it's called last shelter survival. I spend like 25 euro a month on it because of the things I get a solar panel faster building etc. You can put much more money in it to get units faster...
Expect this in drugwars too you can choose to just upgrade your buildings or Rob people or do both. You get some crypto out of it.. There will be allways people who don't have the patience to build and just buy.
People could also invest now because it's in the early stage also with the apps coming up I expect also a PayPal or Google payoption in it so you buy stuff with fiat while you get crypto back in lesser form and depending on how good you play the game. But still it is a game...
No other game gives you fiat back they put it in their pockets and this golden option to distribute steem as crypto is a first of its kind.
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actually @themarkymark is right with his comments and calculations..
actually he would not even have to do such complex calculations..
just looking at the fact that there is a price pool that is funded by steem spend on the game and the fact that only 80% is shared leads to the fact that newer "investors" will have trouble getting a positiv return on their investment.
However I believe developers were aware of this and this is why they put in the exponentially increasing cost of upgrading buildings.
So this changes the equation quite a bit.
If this game really lifts off I would expect also old players to pay in steem to upgrade their buildings from time to time as they need more resources to perform in the game.
So a player has to decide if he is here for the ROI... then just spend wisely maximum 30 steem and no more and he might do OK.. or you are here to win in the game and you will probably have to spend a few hundred steem and will have trouble in getting a positive ROI...
at the end this will again be a fascinating economics 101 experiments.. as is steemmonsters.. and I am very much looking forward to the outcome..
I believe in regards to return it will be as important that you joined the game early as well as how attractive the actual game play will become..
This is standard for games of this type, although they seem to be really unbalanced in Drug Wars. For example, upgrades yield very little improvement and cost a ton and storage is extremely slow to upgrade and you need many levels over the upgrade you are doing. I think in one case you need like 16 storage to upgrade a level 4 or 5 building. And storage is times three as you have to upgrade three versions of it.
yes.. I totally agree!
And I am really looking very much forward once the whole game play is online how this will play out at the end..
I am actually more concerned about the possibility to have multiple accounts that benefit much more IRR wise from the lower cost at the beginning..
And this is a also a happy welcome for any kind of bots..
Lets see how the developers handle this...
I just broke even today (thanks !bookkeeping bot). But that was on 5 Steem.
Getting in and out early is the key with pyramid/ponzi schemes. Just like 'Buy low, sell high'; Early is one of those moments you can only discern in hindsight.
If this game explodes for 3 years and ends up with a billion players, then a guy who gets in a year from now is going to be real happy with his total ROI. If the money dries up tomorrow, the guy who paid in yesterday is going to feel like he was taken.
If the game was in any way hiding its nature I'd have boycotted on ethical grounds, but we all know what we're getting into.
Who knows, though. The devs might roll out some advertising or start moving merch; they're going to want to keep the gravy train running.
This IS a game, not a stock. I find it kinda odd that so many people are so focused on ROI in a game meant to deliver entertainment. It's an interest people have, I guess, so where it's an aspect of a game, it seems to capture their attention well.
I would love to see potential returns on investments added to many games, as I'd like to see how that impacts the communities playing those games. I wonder if there are games where adding such a feature actually causes current communities to dislike it. I bet such games do exist, and that experiments along these lines will reveal some fascinating things about society and how various communities view money and other societal values.
Something you don't discuss in your comment is that having better resources earlier in the game due to investing capital in it could make people glad they did it so that they can maintain an advantage over other players in gameplay dynamics. It seems possible that only the economic aspects of the game are interesting to you, given your comment. Steem's an interesting technological development that's creating new paradigms not only in social media and economics, but now gaming.
Enjoy!
hey cool I didn't know about bookkeeping bot :) Cheers
!bookkeeping drugwars well I did it too.. invest in the game early knowing I won't get it all back. Or in a year or so.
Hi @hans001!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 13.16 days.
Your ROI per day is 2.14 % and you are earning approx. 7.20 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 33.5 days.
Cool I didn't know this was a thing. I'll have to try this.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @birchmark!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 10.41 days.
Your ROI per day is 3.41 % and you are earning approx. 0.02 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 18.9 days.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @themarkymark!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 12.65 days.
Your ROI per day is 2.38 % and you are earning approx. 20.11 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 29.4 days.
How close are you to breaking even now?
Knowing all that you have spent so much money?
!bookkeeping drugwars
Those who got in early will be fine. But if you make 100 Steem a day today you will make 7 in 30 days from now. By then it should be far more difficulty to “break even”
Hi @hotbit!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 10.74 days.
Your ROI per day is 16.11 % and you are earning approx. 2.62 STEEM per day.
Time to put my stats on the table then ...
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @elektropunkz!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 12.31 days.
Your ROI per day is 5.91 % and you are earning approx. 5.76 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 4.6 days.
My ROI = Downn, Spending $$$ is up, ... so, One more time then!
!bookkeeping drugwars
Please use one of the following keywords after !bookkeeping:
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @carlgnash!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 12.31 days.
Your ROI per day is 5.15 % and you are earning approx. 0.34 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 7.1 days.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @pauliinasoilu!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 7.40 days.
You won
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @runicar!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 14.62 days.
Your ROI per day is 5.84 % and you are earning approx. 7.72 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 2.5 days.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @carlgnash!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 16.07 days.
Your ROI per day is 7.10 % and you are earning approx. 0.46 STEEM per day.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @carlgnash!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 19.06 days.
Your ROI per day is 8.52 % and you are earning approx. 0.56 STEEM per day.
Good points and I’m glad someone said something. You have to understand the risks in games such as these when playing for an roi and only invest what you are willing to lose. I really enjoy DrugWars and hope they can figure out a way to keep it going.
I personally am playing for fun. I did invest about 40 Steem in my account but just to get it going to be able to play. I don’t plan on putting anymore Steem in myself and let my account grow on its own here on out. I actually spent my 40 Steem on Drugs, Weapons, and Alcohol to produce enough of everything without having to put more Steem in. Yesterday I earned 2.4 Steem as a reward today I got 2.1 Steem. I feel you have a better chance to earn actual Steem if you don’t put in to much.
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Yeah, their current system is broken. They need to figure out some ways to get more money into the pool.
At least when battles are re-enabled, and the research whatever is enabled, it will more resemble a game that's something near fun.
A lot is riding on what they do with future development. That's not a good sign. Nothing in the current game suggests to me that there's much hope for the future. It's horribly unbalanced. Hopefully they'll re-assess the numbers on the cost of buildings and what they bring. That includes the costs of things. The cost spikes up rather dramatically once you get pretty up there. That does mean that players won't continue to buy things.
If they come up with things for normal players to continue to buy to improve their chances, that will make it slightly less of a ponzi.
Maybe i speak as a person who "got in early".
Since the very start i've been playing this game for the fun of it. Granted, i spam insta-upgrade everything while it was cheap for me to do so. I've sunk way more steem in other failed ventures.
Mafia wars was the shit back in the day and every moment i spend playing Drug Wars is a harken to 2010's nostalgia. That's the point of this game, putting classic internet games onto the blockchain, that in itself is something i'd support 100%.
I'd love to start reading rage posts by triggered retards about how "Drug wars is a scam" because they "can't make back the money" with zero regard of the game. If any of them are in my follow list i'd know who to unfollow.
Have fun!
Mafia Wars made a killing back in the day. I heard their monthly income was insane for games of that era. It's a great game and very fun, turning into an investment vehicle changes the tremendously and this hits one of the biggest pain points of crypto in general, how to create value.
We've all heard of the controversial Zynga and the insane amount of money they made in a short few years. It all change when VC got in and fucked it up though IMO.
One sentence about the early rise of Zynga got me.
Maybe Drugwars will fail, maybe it won't. I'm okay with either results. (again, speaking as someone who probably broke even so might be somewhat hypocritical).
Man, you're ruthless!
Enjoyed fully =)
Can we get a similar analysis of steem u-a?
I see you participate.
Is this not also a transfer from the newbs to the biggest accounts?
Those newbs would be better served by flagging spam for 125+% return on their vote value, imo.
Steem is diluting, but the lines will always be there.
Do you enrich the early adopters?
Or
Do you change the world for the newbs?
I like this moonsteem, it could teach the greedy bastards to control themselves.
I'm up ~11%.
As someone who is on Steem for other than financial reasons, I find it fascinating how the Steem community is approaching this game. I'm not playing it for financial reasons either, and await with bated breath how continuing development affect various communities playing. I see comments regarding it that show some folks are only playing it for financial reasons, and could care less about having fun, like they play the stock market.
It's really interesting, and I can almost feel my brain growing as I learn about society, economics, and people from this game.
I hope you're having fun too =)
Yep, all the accounts i made for people that still don't want them will have a built up dw account when they do want them.
I appreciate your analysis. I often rely on folks smarter than me to inform me of things I am incapable of doing for myself. This usually works out for me, as most folks are smarter than me and honest too.
However, I note one factor your analysis seems to have neglected, which is that players with thousands of units will take drugs from players without them. I will be amongst the latter. Taking drugs from other players will affect ROI, and players that take them will increase their ROI, while players losing drugs to armed thugs will see decreased ROI. Again, that will include me (an alt).
Lastly, I cannot lose money on this game. Ever. I have already earned more than I have invested, and if I refrain from injecting any more Steem, I cannot lose money. I did this purposely, so that I could gain from my entertainment, which is quite a novel feature of the technological revolution ongoing, and particularly of Steem and it's dapps.
While I cannot lose money, my continued interest in the game can be dispelled, if raids aren't handled well enough. I don't need to be immune from raids, but I do need to be able to continue to play with achievable goals without being so taxed by raiders that I cannot progress, and this will require some pretty careful balancing by the devs. I hope they have the requisite finesse to pull that off, as it seems pretty daunting to me.
Regardless of whether they can manage to keep the game playable for folks that CANNOT invest thousands of actual, real dollars - as some folks have already - which will be an amazing feat, I reckon they have already successfully pulled this game off, by showing the potential of Steem to enable such a novel paradigm as entertainment that can financially reward you for playing. This is a fascinating transcendence of historical paradigms, immense in it's implications, and not just for gaming or Steem.
It shows the amazing innovation that Steem, as well as @drugwars, is, and gives us a glimpse of a future where it isn't scarcity that enables power, but abundance. It's hard to overestimate the potential impact of this paradigm on things like government, war, and society in every aspect.
Can you address the significance of raids on ROI?
Thanks!
Is it just my impression or is that's an incredibly biased analysis coming from someone who spent a lot without putting any thought into it?
How can a game be a ponzi if new players can meet roi in a week? DRUGWARS is an actual game. You're acting like a noob complaining about the game being too hard, even if more skilled players have no trouble doing what you're failing to achieve. Oh, did you invest a lot? It's a game. Throwing money at games doesn't automatically make you win at it. That's not how most games work.
This is my post and it proves you wrong: How to win at drug wars - A ridiculously short guide to meeting ROI in less than a week
to me it looks like simple math. if 100 people have 100 apples, everyone has one, and they all put it together. now someone comes and takes 20 apples and remaining 80 gives back to all the 100 people. can everyone of that 100 people have 2 apples? or even just 1?
Posted using Partiko Android
Depends on the apple tree and it's caretaker.
It sounds like you don't understand the definition of a Ponzi.
At some point, that won't be true. It's still really early and early people will easily make ROI and in fact make well over the ROI.
The math is simple.
Let's say over the next year 1M Steem is spent on the game.
200K Steem goes to developers.
800K Steem goes to gamers.
How can everyone make ROI if the pool for gamers is only 800K yet 1M was spent? Now we are talking about one year later, the "early birds", those ones you speak of that can make ROI in a week, made well over their initial investment. This means new players get even less of the 80% to make their own ROI.
At some point the rate of new players slows down, as this happens, the amount of money to pay old players slows down dramatically. At some point (far less than a year is my estimation) there won't be money to give anyone an ROI that hasn't been in since the early days.
It's mathematically impossible, how can 100% of players make more than 100% of what they spend when they are getting paid with only 80% of the money spent.
This video does a really good job of explaining it all.
If you are insinuating I'm upset or feel ripped off, quite the opposite, I got in early and even though I spent almost 3K Steem I'll easily make it back. I am just a big advocate of transparency and being realistic.
I just want to point out that you're discussing a game. Your entire focus is on investment potential. I'm actually kinda stunned. I am urged to ask a bunch of questions about how you approach other matters, but I'm not going to, for reasons.
I just find it noteworthy that this is your approach to a game.
Have a profitable day!
Look at all the discussions about the game. They are all ROI and profit related. In fact even their logo clearly focused on making profit for playing.
Yet the entire game was build as a ponzi. I suspect not on purpose but more of lack of understanding and ability to add a value element.
I’m pretty confidident in saying 90% are playing purely for financial reasons.
I appreciate your considered reply, and you may not be wrong about 90%. I think you are, but have no metrics to substantiate my opinion, so won't argue the point. The situation is that this is indeed a game, and not a financial vehicle, so if you're right 90% of players are going to learn the difference.
It's very interesting to me to see a game being approached in this way, and I am learning much that will take me a while to grasp fully. It is pretty valuable to understand this particular dynamic going forward, as more games will certainly be made that have a financial component. It's one of the greatest of innovations Steem has brought into the world, and I can see it also impacting many other societal aspects.
Thanks for your substantive contribution to my understanding!
I believe @themarkymark's post was made to highlight how unsustainable it is if one should approach the game as a financial venture. I have full confidence that any "ponzi" element was accidental on the dev's part and now they are scrambling to fix the distribution and (more probably) the image of the game.
It's sold as a game, it did not tell you invest; but everyone 'invests' anyways, is it an investment vehicle now?
The solution is as simple as the dev investing something back into the game. He could invest 10 steem or he could invest 1 steem or make upvote partnerships. He can get ads. Either way, it's easy to solve. No, it won't solve the "problem" of people who have "invested too much", but games don't have to care about that.
Uh huh....
Drug Wars has made 160K Steem. Dev take is 32K, this is also the gap between what people paid and the start of their ROI. Now most people (like you said yourself, you can make a profit in one week) expect to make money not just break even.
Where do you see them making up 32K while also taking a profit? But it isn't 32K. If you can pull an ROI in a week, what happens in 6 months from now when you made way way over your break even? Where does that money come from?
And another big problem will be the more or less inactive players because they are still receiving steem without doing anything for the game. And having an script doing all the stuff automatic is also kind of the wrong way for such a game.
Without an change of the reward system this game will die really fast.
There will be no new players in the future if you still have to invest 50+ Steem to accomplish anything. Atm the game is not really playable without investing Steem. You don'tearn enough ressources to build anything (have to wait multiple days for one building) and can't recruit enough troops to secure your little pile of drugs.
They will have to change the whole system to have an easy start and after that it slows down but atm we have a slow start and from that it gets very slow...
Posted using Partiko Android
Maybe a way to solve this is always create new features in the game. For example, the research center and training stuffs are disable. they will begin at a low cost when enable, maybe this will make all players put a little more steem in the game again, cause is cheap. Imagine 4k users putting ~1 steem or more to upgrade the research center in the next week. Adding new features like that from time to time, making the game more interesting to play , and making people put just a little more steem in the game maybe solve the steem roi issue and reward better the most skilled players...idk, what you think? @themakymark
there is no problem to solve if the game is fun, because it is a game, not investment fond. yes some will get the investment back, but it should not be the main reason to play it. think @themakymark said it, can't call it a ponzi because it is a game, just a lot people don't look at it like that
Posted using Partiko Android
I agree, but i think the point of the discussion is if there's no steem at the pool, the game stops to be fun..don't you think?
If this game only attracts people interested in their ROI, you are most likely correct. However, I do not think that is a forgone conclusion. In fact, I don't think the devs are trying to attract that demographic at all. They are trying to attract gamers, not investors.
Investors only care about one thing: handing over their money in exchange for a future payout. Gamers are not thinking that way at all. They hand over their money in exchange for both immediate and future entertainment. If this game attracts people who are willing to spend some money in exchange for fun, then it will succeed. The fact that those players get a little bit of steem back will be a huge bonus. It will not be the main motivation. If the game is fun enough, I bet those people will either say "Cool I played a fun game and I got back a little coffee money" or they will just exchange it for something in the game that leads to them having more fun.
Attracting new players (and I mean players... not investors) from outside of steem's current user base is the only way this will succeed. A big part of that is the devs making an incredibly fun game that could become addictive like so many mobile games. However, another piece is the behavior of the early access players. Whether motivated by ROI or fun, those early player should only behave in a way that will make it more likely that new people will join and actually play the game. If we behave in a way that creates a miserable experience for a new player and they immediately leave, we will be shooting ourselves in the foot... and we need to save those bullets to protect our HQ.
I forgot to include one thing in my original comment. I really do hope you go ahead and make the game you described. I think games can be an incredibly effective way to attract new people and encourage the purchasing, holding, and spending of steem (things we desperately need). I would definitely give it a try when you launch it.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @techblogger!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 9.42 days.
Your ROI per day is 2.03 % and you are earning approx. 7.29 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 39.8 days.
It kind of reminds me of mobile games. You can play for free and grow organically or you can dump a bunch of money into it to level up quickly. I don't plan on ever using my STEEM to level up in drug wars, but I am still playing and getting paid out (albeit a small amount). The more people like me who sign on compared to people who join and 'invest' 1000 STEEM, the faster their funding model breaks down.
Drug Wars is a game. It's no different than Steem Monsters or any other blockchain based game. At least Drug Wars give out rewards in the form of Steem and not some junk worthless token you can't exchange for anything.
At no point has Drug Wars ever promised to make people rich or pay you what you've invested. The rewards are a nice bonus.
Like any pay to play game, you spend money. If you don't like it, don't play. Going as far as calling a game a ponzi scheme, it makes you sound bitter. You say you wanted to create the same game and never did, would you have done it differently?
Posted using Partiko Android
I am not bitter at all, but I think people should be aware of it. I believe many people are playing purely for ROI and judging by the chatter I hear that seems to be confirmed. I don't think it was intentionally made as a Ponzi scheme, I believe it was in fact made as a game but because making money was strapped on it turned into a Ponzi scheme. I honestly don't believe there was any malicious intent in volved.
I am not calling it one, it is one. In its current form, it fits all the criteria that distinguish one. So it's not an insult, just an observation.
I tend to make posts like this when I feel people may not properly understand things. It's purely to create some transparency.
I have put over 3,000 Steem into Drug Wars, and I'm pretty confident I will get that back and then some because I was lucky to be an early bird. So I really have no reason to be upset.
I spent a bit of time deciding about making this post because I expected a reaction such as yours.
Good question and was one of the reasons it wasn't done yet. I couldn't figure out how to solve this problem myself.
In my vision, there was going to be consumables and some monetization but no payouts. This means this problem wouldn't have existed, but the volume would be much much lower and far less profitable but more of a game than an "investment".
The average person might spend 5-50 tops over the life of the game, not 500-10000 steem. Surely this way is more profitable and exciting but creates the dilution problem.
That's good @themarkymark - sorry if I was overly brash in my choice of words. Sometimes, I can be a little too forward and honest. I very much love engaging in discussion and debate about these things and I respect you as a Steemian. I appreciate you took the time to reply.
My original point in response was, people are making Drug Wars out to be something it's not. At the end of the day, it's a pay-to-play game with an economy component that incentivises users to spend money, but how is it any different than tonnes of other games out there?
World of Warcraft, Eve Online and other games with monthly subscriptions force the user to continuously spend money, but they don't allow you to get paid for playing. Mobile games (especially those promoting gambling like slots and poker) have in-app purchases where you can pay to buy magic gems and credits to keep playing (once again, no financial reward).
The reality is, any dApp on the Steem blockchain is always going to have a pay-to-play mechanic to it. Steem Monsters is the exact same, now with tournaments (some with paid entry), it makes it even more pay-to-play. Those with more money than others can afford to drop thousands of Steem on card packs.
People should be aware of the risks playing Drug Wars, but we shouldn't single this one game out. If we are being fair, where are the other posts calling out other games on Steem? The gambling apps. What about bid bots, are they not pay to play?
At the end of the day, more dApps on Steem is beneficial to us all. The popularity and usage of games like Drug Wars benefit anyone with a Steem account financially, because it's adoption and that drives the value of STEEM and SBD. Bring on more dApps like Drug Wars.
Doing the standard social bullshit, with the app set as a beneficiary, would increase the reward pool and make it slightly less of a ponzi. So, when you upgrade your Pantheon to level 256 you can brag to all your friends and it would put a few extra Steem into the pool. Then players would be regularly adding a few extra steem, whether they were buying anything or not.
You could also come up with a ton of extra things to buy to entice players, lowering their chances for ROI possibly, but putting more Steem into the pool. If it's built as an actual game though, that's fun to play, the people buying such things won't care so much about ROI.
You could also add adverts, putting a bit more into the pool.
Dunno how many advertisers would be keen on getting in on a game that's kinda a ponzi scheme though.
Most of all though, never advertise it as a way to make money.
They need to update profiles for each player. Add cosmetics that can be purchased with steem. So if you want that cool looking hoody on your profile, you must sped 3 steem, or you want that golden gun on your guy, 10 steem. Then make it possible for gang members to view enemy profiles and guild members to share and trade items with eachother. there are so many ways to make money with this, DW just needs a strong marketing person cough cough
Um...the logo actually says "Get Paid To Rule Your World". It's advertised as a game where you can profit. If you don't invest any money, or only a small amount, of just really intelligently, then you can get "paid" a few cents per hour. I'd get paid more filling in captchas.
Now, it didn't say that it would get you rich...but the logo is at the very least somewhat misleading, and with it's current model, is kind of a ponzi, because it is advertised as a way to make money. Of course, the more accurate "Possibly earn back what you have to spend to even compete." isn't quite as catchy. But, if you play it as just a game, it's fine. You might even maybe earn back what you put in, if you do so wisely. It will never be a money making machine though, unless you bot a ton of accounts.
It says get paid to rule your world. I didn't see the word "profit" mentioned anywhere on the site. Anyone who assumes otherwise, that's on them.
You're missing the point of Drug Wars, it's a game with an economy component. Sure, you need to spend money to make anything in the game, but if you're having fun, then you're probably more focused on moving up the leaderboard than using it as a bank.
Even if you're only being paid "cents", the logo is not lying, right? You're still getting paid. If the logo said, "Get paid hundreds in Steem, guaranteed" then fair enough.
I think people need to calm down. Paying to play is not unique to Drug Wars, World of Warcraft and a plethora of other games with subscriptions, you get nothing for playing and paying with real money. At least Drug Wars gives you something back. What about mobile in-app purchases in games for imaginary non-redeemable credits?
Keep calm and have fun. I am loving Drug Wars.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @ipromote!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 3.93 days.
Your ROI per day is 4.67 % and you are earning approx. 8.77 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 17.5 days.
What is that 1st payment of 0.075 for I wonder!
Posted using Partiko Android
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @brasan!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 13.05 days.
Your ROI per day is 12.13 % and you are earning approx. 2.49 STEEM per day.
The game is not a money making machine for the players. People need to understand this. This is my opinion, but I would have designed it with the game assets represented as NFTs on the blockchain that could be traded among the players on the open market.
Bid Bots are not money-making machines, but that's how they are used and seen. You can't escape that's how the vast majority will use and see these things.
I got in the green today with a modest 10sbd investment. It is definitely decreasing. If the game is fun, I don't mind spending. But another issue is everything is becoming waaay to expensive to just buy with steem now. Not sure if I want to spend 10sbd to upgrade a crackhouse and buy a few knifers
Yeah, you explained it very appropriately. The people who got in the game early are always at a better chance to make profit rather than those who are joining in late.
I would love to see how this game will move forward once new investment stops comming into it.
Posted using Partiko Android
A lot of us knew that, that's why i only spent a small amount, im already in the green, and I'm not interested in investing anymore but i keep getting more and more steem daily :^)
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @lunaticpandora!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 12.16 days.
Your ROI per day is 13.08 % and you are earning approx. 2.63 STEEM per day.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @cryptosharon!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 8.61 days.
Your ROI per day is 12.09 % and you are earning approx. 3.22 STEEM per day.
!bookkeeping steemmonsters
Hi @cryptosharon!
steemmonsters
Received:
Spent:
Total:
tfw all the cards I'm selling won't make up for the loss, so I lost because I hedl instead of selling when it was trending.
!bookkeeping drugwars
If you don't keep pressing more out everyday. It's hard to keep the same pay. Playing for free will be you barley nothing.
Posted using Partiko Android
Thats why i did not invested too much but little.
Here we go
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @coolguy222!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 10.19 days.
Your ROI per day is 1.51 % and you are earning approx. 0.21 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 55.9 days.
😀😀😀
Posted using Partiko Android
You are so right there are just so many people misunderstood it as investment and people ended up investing more than can bargain for.
Maybe you can think of another game with much better calculations and similar to it (with other elements besides drugs, guns and alcohol) and maybe it can allow more options for people to play. 😁
Posted using Partiko Android
!bookkeeping drugwars
Posted using Partiko Android
Hi @babarakas43!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 4.69 days.
Your ROI per day is 1.36 % and you are earning approx. 0.55 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 68.6 days.
!bookkeeping drugwars
need the ! in front.
Thanks. Interested to see my payout without having invested any steem.
I don't know how accurate it is as it likely doesn't take in account refunds and so on, but in your case where it is all without spending steem it is likely accurate.
So far you have made 0.160 Steem from what I can see on the chain.
Woohoo! 😆
Is there a tool that shows the return on free buildings?
If transfers are all that is counted it leaves out the return in buildings.
Not that I know off. Transfers are all I can really analyze.
Probably have to build a steem-engine type explorer to read the jsons?
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @wolfhart!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 8.99 days.
Your ROI per day is 12.71 % and you are earning approx. 3.06 STEEM per day.
It is getting harder to earn daily. Up grading is also getting harder as levels go up. When the battles start and people loose their gains for no ROI. We will see how it goes.
The whole premise of the game is a ROI.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Posted using Partiko Android
Hi @greencross!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 12.29 days.
Your ROI per day is 1.94 % and you are earning approx. 0.06 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 39.2 days.
It can also be equated to playing poker at a table with a strong dealer rake. Eventually the chips on the table dwindle until fresh money sits down or reloads.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Posted using Partiko Android
Hi @roomservice!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 8.49 days.
Your ROI per day is 2.33 % and you are earning approx. 4.57 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 34.4 days.
those playing do not only spend STEEM, but also another ressource that is even more valuable: TIME.
"Playing" this "game" for other reasons than "fun" is stupid in many ways ;-)
The only way one could profit is if he invested in early stage. Therefore I believe its kinda ridiculous to start investing at this point. It would be awesome if game had different type of revenue, such as adds or something simular.
It would be more sustainable if players would pay for different skins for their hero, weapons or building, not sure how to make it though.
But, I'm seeing the effort so maybe they'll find a way to make it acceptable.
I really appreciate the comment section on this post a lot. It really shows the perspective of people who "get' the post, and those that are "came in to give opinions" on the post without digesting the content. Sensible remarks about the game :D
Hi @themarkymark!
Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 8.364 which ranks you at #12 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has not changed in the last three days.
In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 177 contributions, your post is ranked at #7.
Evaluation of your UA score:
Feel free to join our @steem-ua Discord server
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @sebbbl!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 3.73 days.
Your ROI per day is 8.94 % and you are earning approx. 2.24 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 7.5 days.
Glad I got in early then! I invested around 30 Steem and wont be putting any more in just playing for fun upgrading with the in game resources. I hope it isnt a Ponzi, but I was suspicious from the beginning.
For now I will just keep playing and see how it all pans out!
Thanks for making the risks of playing this game known. At least now i know what I'm getting into.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @tbaumer2!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 4.00 days.
Your ROI per day is 1.09 % and you are earning approx. 0.33 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 87.7 days.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @mondoshawan!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 12.62 days.
Your ROI per day is 0.97 % and you are earning approx. 0.02 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 90.9 days.
its funny you say how unprofitable drugwars is and then praise steemmonsters when it is much less
When did I say anything about Steem Monsters?
I also didn't say Drug Wars is unprofitable, I said it is similar to a Ponzi (not likely on purpose). People in now will do really well, not so much in 30+ days from now. (Unless something dramatically changes).
The math is simple and doesn't lie.
you had multiple posts giveaways on steemmonsters and were selling 2000 alpha packs so it seems you have some close involvement with the creators
No, (as I said in multiple comments) I purchased purely on speculation on the theory Alpha cards being worth more as they were about to sell out. I bought around 2,500 packs. I opened 500+, and saved 2,000 to sell down the road.
@themarkymark !bookkeeping steemmonsters
I am Curious about that one also ...
!bookkeeping steemmonsters
Hi @elektropunkz!
steemmonsters
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Hi @isacoin!
steemmonsters
Received:
Spent:
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what does lie though is you changing your comment after i replied
No, I was adding additional information. I didn't change the meaning of the comment at all.
well if this is the case you forgot on all your steemmonsters posts the way its advertised and structured as a ponzi
No, it's a collectible card game with speculative pricing and a free market. Very very different.
not really as for the economy to viable need new investors
is why the bullshit advertising being upvoted to frontpage and promoted widely on clearnet
Hey @themarkymark,
You had the idea to build a game like this, so you will totally understand how it's hard to maintain a good balance with all those complexity and challenge. Even more when the game contains rewards and when it has been only tested for some days. The reward mechanism is victim of its success (7000+ Steem accounts in two weeks) and need many improvements before being optimal.
Our new slogan is : "The drugs and the guns are virtual but the money is real" (thanks to @andrarchy). It will be reflected everywhere soon.
For the Ponzi scheme, again I don't agree, since DrugWars is a game with a real focus on the "free to play" part, and you can check my (angry) reply to the post of @samotonakatoshi and if people are abusing of the system, the system will change, there is no doubt.
After 15 days of launch we havent sleep too much, nor had the time to implement the new features that will permit to replace the rewarding mechanism, but we are on it and you can expect some changes soon!
We are building a revolutionary game where you can socialize with others, be a strategist and get rewarded for your plays but also for the time passt ingame and the investment.
Finaly, I m thankfull for your support since the start. If you or anyone else want to make a feedback or suggestion, we are allways open to discuss. DrugWars is not only driven by our team but also with the feedbacks of our community.
The problem seems to be how it is advertised. The game itself may not be profitable and the current rewards system looks like a ponzi scheme, but it seems like what is important is the community built around the game. The community is what is important. Drugwars could be profitable by leveraging the social aspect. For example, the accounts connected to each faction helps everyone who posts in the community. By having the different faction members upvoting each other, new accounts can get more upvotes by playing and helping each other out. Maybe by having a high developer house edge, it discourages those who are just in it for the money, instead it helps create communities which could make the steem blockchain better in the long run.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @swelker101!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 9.10 days.
Your ROI per day is 8.48 % and you are earning approx. 2.08 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 2.7 days.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @swelker101!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 14.17 days.
Your ROI per day is 8.00 % and you are earning approx. 1.96 STEEM per day.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Posted using Partiko Android
Hi @myothuzar!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 8.43 days.
Your ROI per day is 5.10 % and you are earning approx. 1.75 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 11.2 days.
This post has been included in the latest edition of SoS Daily News - a digest of all you need to know about the State of Steem.
!bookkeeping drugwars
Hi @psionic-tremors!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 9.92 days.
Your ROI per day is 9.33 % and you are earning approx. 1.46 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 0.8 days.
Very nice post, i like the game also, and i figured the info that you are giving out already, i now spend untill a couple of days ago, around a 100 steem and ... the roi is actually dropping more drastically once you decide to just use your in game resources.
With that said, i wont stop playing for now
Great post. I think I saw you on the Discord Channel. It still has the potential to become a good game without the ROI. Just waiting to see what the future holds. Hopefully the battles and everything else will be fun. There are a few other ways they could increase the payout. Maybe advertisements. Maybe videos. I'm sure you have had other ideas. If the Developers would Implement some of these ideas maybe they could one day go to 100% payout. I hope you are still planning on developing a game like this. If you do maybe I will have the chance to get in early because I follow you
! bookkepping drugwars
!bookkeeping drugwars
Posted using Partiko Android
Hi @mango-juice!
drugwars
Received:
Spent:
Total:
First transfer was before 14.28 days.
Your ROI per day is 3.21 % and you are earning approx. 3.18 STEEM per day.
Break even in approx. 16.9 days.
I think i might have FOMO'd in to DrugWars smh...
I say this from day one and no one bats an eye, Marky writes it and 160 comments. Haha.
Great that you got this out.
I said it in Discord early on when I saw how it was set up and everything thought I was crazy.
Ill fight you on who brought it up first. lol.
Anyways..
Its good a big account brought it up since a large number of people keep on putting in cash looking on this only from an investment side. Thinking:
Just look at ?bookkeeping spam on drug wars posts and you can clearly see that some folks will probably never get their money back especially since theres a limited pool of Steemians and new folks arent coming in with prices so low...
The bookkeeping bot doesn't factor in dilution, and at 8.5%+ a day, their break-even time frames are going to be far far longer (5x-20x longer potentially). Now with recent change, even longer.
Dilution is only > 8% in the case of accounts that spent more money than they should have. My dilution is far lower than that.
The less money you put in the less dilution applies.
Depending how much you spent, determines how far out your break-even point is. Because higher upgrades are exponentially more expensive with only minor improvements, upgrades will require much longer to breakeven.
With the recent change (and future ones I predict will be coming soon) to rewards, it will take a lot longer for most people. A lot of people will never break-even, even if they don't spend a lot depending on when they sign up and how many people sign up after them.