Good points. However, we are seeing exponential adoption of the Ethereum protocol. As Dan mentioned ETH transactional volume is exploding. To be fair its not just ETH. There's several alts making incredible upgrades to their core protocols to bring crypto into the masses with "unlimited on chain scaling". Ones that stand out are NEO and Dash from my opinion. Both have governance built in and self funding mechanics to improve core protocols over time, which is going to be incredibly important for survival in future. For example, Dash has about $30 million in funds to work with per year at current price levels. As the Dash DAO builds out core infrastructure foundational products like Evolution, price can exponentially increase into a self feeding loop, marketing machine, development machine, PR machine to truly bring crypto to masses in places like Africa or Venezuela. The problem with Bitcoin is governance, core developers, lack of progress, not user friendly and the increasingly heavy alt competition for payments and store of value. Bitcoin has one use case "store of value" while ETH will have 1000's. Within 6 months we'll know how many ETH will be in existence. The number is around $105 million supply with inflation less than 2% a year (less than BTC). Once Casper is release I read their be 0% inflation. Validators will earn around 5%-10% per year. Bitcoin will likely reach $25K but ETH will con't to outperform YoY and eventually surpass BTC sometime in 2018. I predict more blocksize wars, lack of progress in Bitcoin core protocol and problems with Lightening Network. Meanwhile, Alts are rapidly developing for mainstream use cases. Sub penny on chain fees, second block times, more alt pairing (Binance, Bittrex is/has added every ETH pair, built user savings accounts, buyer protection functions, user names not numbers, APIs for quick merchant integration, built in discounts right in app with map, web wallets and the list goes on and on. Collateralized mining, low energy algos to spread decentralization of mining. 10's of thousands of smart nodes. The list just keeps going on and on. In 2 more years (2020) this space will look completely different than what it does right now. A historic snapshot from last year this time proves that. The competition is going to be absolutely insane into next year with the interface moment the most critical time in blockchains history as the masses decided which coins are most useful for them. My bet its not going to be Bitcoin much as people think today b/c many of the same problems you see today with Bitcoin will still be there. To a certain group of people Bitcoin may still be the idealogical choice but to the masses this is not important. Masses look for features, convenience, user call lines or if Grandma sends all here money to wrong address what happens? I just don't see Bitcoin addressing these problems like Alts will. Like so many technologies in past it was not the pioneer that made it in the end but the settlers that came after. Saw the mistakes of Pioneers and made key improvements. I think something similar will happen to Bitcoin.
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Good points.
The anon alts like DASH will come under gov. attack at some point, so I'm not bothering with those at the moment. ETH is the only real alternative to BTC, but also remember, ETH can be indirectly attacked by an attack on the leader himself, Vitalik. Bitcoin doesn't have this issue as everything is spread out and there isn't a central point of failure.
And unless Ethereum is capped like Bitcoin, it will not function as a store of value.
ETH can be anon too with zksnarks. Every new coin I am seeing at the moment has privacy built in as a feature. Regulators will control the fringes like we see today in US exchanges but the private crypto currencies I believe will only expand. Its interesting to watch b/c most people would assume Governments would be more against crypto from the start. However, since crypto currencies are globally neutral and not national currency the State is much less concerned about them. Take for example, Venezuela where crypto currencies are beginning to spread the fastest the people don't really have a choice b/c the Bolivar is devaluing so fast and dollars are not accessible. If it was another nation state currency like Euros or dollars gov't seems to take a much harder approach than to crypto. What seems likely to happen is that some countries try and ban it while some legalize it, forcing the others to eventually embrace it.