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RE: BREAKING - Ethereum Surges Past $300

in #ethereum7 years ago

I must admit, I do have my worries about this development. The price rise is welcome, but the driving factor behind it may be more interesting. I note there are an increasing amount ICOs connected with the project, which injects liquidity with regularity. However, injections of liquidity do not necessarily mean utility in terms of actual usage of new types of coins generated from the project.

So, where my concern arises is: what happens when some contracts connected with the ICOs fail (some of them will fail, that's simply inevitable in the real world), and can this influx of money for ICOs be sustained?

At the moment I'm not sure where the real floor for Eth is, the floor that is created by utility and general revenue, due to the influx of what I'd call temporary money. Also, some of these ICOs will be aimed at simply raising money for the purposes of cashing out, the real question there is: Which ones are doing that?

So, investment wise, pretty dangerous. Making a quick buck? Odds are pretty good. Medium term (6 months in this case) probably mid-risk, you'd really need to know when investors start asking questions about their investments in the ICOs.

You can also look at it this way, from my limited perspective:
1st Month: Still bullish.
2nd Month: Reality check.
3rd Month: Shakeup of least stable as people ask questions.
4th Month: Surviving systems attempt to keep going based on their original model.
5th Month: Systems from month 4 experience shakeup as some remodel themselves, and some fail.
6th Month: Investors know if they are still holding something that is an asset or not.

I've not included the problems of perception, which can affect stable ICOs when others fail and investors get nervous. That's too subject to the charisma of a project leader, and whether or not they can demonstrate they are solvent and on track.