If there’s one honest question in crypto right now, it’s this, have we already hit the top this season, or are we just getting started. What makes it tricky is that the loudest voices are split right down the middle. Some influencers are calling a peak, others have stopped giving straight answers altogether. When that kind of division shows up on the timeline, my bias is simple, we’re likely closer to the end of the move than the beginning, and the market is preparing to roll into a bear phase.
Why. Because doubt and uncertainty spread faster and sink deeper than excitement. Euphoria is loud, but it burns out quickly. Uncertainty lingers, it nudges people to take profit, even if it’s small, and it slows momentum just enough that the next round of sellers finds the exit too. You don’t need a crash to confirm a top, you just need hesitation to compound across enough participants.
Does that mean the season is “over.” Not necessarily. Tops are processes, not timestamps. They’re made of lower highs on the way up, choppier bounces, and a growing chorus of “maybe.” That’s where I think we are now. I’m also not convinced retail has had its full turn yet. The late wave — the friends and relatives who DM “is it too late” — could still show up, and December 2025 feels like a realistic window for that last burst of participation. Be ready for it, but don’t bet the farm on it.
My plan in this kind of tape stays boring on purpose. Trim into strength, keep a core I’m willing to hold through winter, and set staggered buys below spot so I’m not chasing when the mood swings. Rotate a slice into stables if the weekly structure weakens, but keep dry powder for the ugly days. If we do get that retail push, great, the core benefits. If we don’t, I’ve protected gains and given myself a better average for the next cycle.
We can’t know the exact top. We can know our process. In a market trading on hesitation, discipline becomes the edge. Be ready.