It is a huge part luck I think. I don't think any whales got there just from luck, but I do think there are plenty of talented people on here who won't make it to dolphinhood until they get lucky. That is how the platform works and how most of the real world works too. There are plenty of people who work hard and make valuable contributions but only in the hope that those contributions will one day be recognised and valued.
Steemit is an excellent platform for that. But it is a lottery.
Apparently this is the issue for Reddit. That misinformation sometimes ends up getting voted up. :(