The following is taken from my blackjack site: http://londonblackjack.live/
http://londonblackjack.live/online-blackjack-anarchy/
In previous posts I discussed a few aspects relating to card counting which can help you beat the blackjack tables on the live casino floor. However beating online casinos is regarded as an arguably more challenging proposition by most advantage players. For me it’s always been strangely compelling to sit at home in my boxers while launching an all-out assault on an unsuspecting casino. Read on for a detailed example of the successful online blackjack strategy I have used for many years. Why do I share this with you? For no good reason other than to cause some blackjack anarchy and to watch the other side squirm just a little 😉
Card counting is not effective online due to auto shuffling systems and live casino studio systems which shuffle the cards after every hand or replace the shoe before an adequate level of shoe penetration is reached. This makes counting cards at online casinos a redundant act and an altogether impossible task. The online casino landscape is still relatively new compared to live casinos and one which is quickly becoming nothing more than a money trap for players. Advanced algorithmic churn models are now used by most online casinos as way of maximizing the casino KPIs at an individual player level. These models are continuously learning player behavioral patterns and the triggers that cause a player to deposit more money which they ultimately lose to the house. This allows the casino to quickly maximize each individual players value by segmenting their customer base into value tiers. Bonuses are becoming targeted and tailored to each players specific triggers and gone are the days of the same bonus being sent to the casinos entire database of users.
How can we learn from this?
How do we evolve and continue to win?
What does all this mean?
Casino Marketing has evolved and data is driving it’s evolution. However the power of the data is also it’s greatest weakness. Data relies on having a sample size which is sufficient enough for the data model to draw a conclusion and take an appropriate action. That action could be to generate a daily list of users in a segment which the marketing team will then hit with a specific offer. How is all this useful to us as blackjack players? Our value lies in the samples that can’t gather enough data to make an accurate assumption about a player. Ask yourself the following questions.
Which segment of casino users is likely to fall outside the data models capabilities due to lack of sample size and therefor be left in the hands of a person to decide the appropriate action for each player?
Which segment is worth the effort and resources required to bonus players individually?
The secret to beating online casinos at blackjack is by understanding exactly how Casino Marketing works and having the ability to calculate your EV. Do not underestimate the value of the first part of that statement. Understanding casino marketing is the key to winning online. In fact it is the only way to win online.
In a previous article I explained how accepting casino bonuses is not something you should do without understanding the EV of the bonus. Well a firm understanding of Expected Value is also essential to be a winner in this game.
I’m going to presume that you have already mastered Basic Strategy. If you have not, then I urge you to go back and read that article again, then follow the instructions. If you continue without having a firm understanding of Basic Strategy you will not succeed.
So if you are reading on, I’m going to take it that you are an expert blackjack player and that you fully understand Basic Strategy. Your Expected Value using Basic Strategy is -0.5%. Every hand, every session, every week, month and year. You are a fucking blackjack robot, still you are not beating the game but making all the correct decisions at the table. You are about to discover how to turn the odds upside down and wage war on online casinos.
One of the last requests I made on the Basic Strategy section was to ask you to start documenting the total number of hands played, stakes of each hand and win/loss for each session. The reason I asked you to record this information is because it holds the key to your EV line.
You can easily plot your EV line on a graph as a steadily decreasing (losing) line by multiplying your total stakes by -0.05%. You should lose 0.05% of your stake on average in the long run and understanding this line is the most crucial element to winning at online blackjack. Although your EV line is steadily losing money you will begin to notice that your session win/loss column (which you can also plot on the same graph) is deviating wildly from your EV. Remember your EV is the long run and this is the only line that matters. However your value will actually come from your losses. That’s right you did read that last sentence correctly and there is no need to read it again, it will not change.
The reason you will win in the long run is simply a matter of variance. When you open a new account and have have a few losing sessions eventually busting your account, the casino will view you as a good player and they will want to keep you. At this point they will aggressively try to retain you as their customer. The more you stake / bet / lose the more they will spend to keep you playing. Makes sense right? Most casinos will appoint a VIP manager to look after your account should you lose more than £1,000 in your first deposit. This VIP manager’s only concern will be with driving additional deposits and volume from your account and they will have permission to assign you VIP bonuses to drive said deposits and volume. This is where you will get your edge. Let’s use an example to illustrate how all this works.
You sign up for 2 online casinos (Casino X and Casino Y)
You deposit £1,000 to Casino X and £1,000 to Casino Y
You reject both Welcome Offers as they are -EV.
You bet aggressively at Casino X betting £100 a hand. It’s a good battle with the dealer and after some ups and downs you eventually bust your £1,000. You staked £6,000 in the session £100 x 60 bets before busting your deposit. Your EV for the session is -£300 (£6,000 x 0.05). So you ran £700 under EV as you lost £1,000.
At Casino Y you take exactly the same approach but this time you quit your session as a winner once you hit the same number of hands as Casino X. You win a total of £400. Your EV for the session is once again -£300 as you played the same number of hands at the same stake with the same loss rate (£6,000 x 0.05). This time you ran £700 over EV as you actually won £400.
So in total your win/loss was -£600 which was equal to your overall EV. So you ran according to EV. Now in reality it could/should take you much longer to run according to EV. This is a simplified example to illustrate where your value will come from using this strategy.
You just lost £600 in total but you actually lost £1,000 at Casino X and won £400 at Casino Y. You have now stopped playing at both casinos so what do you think is going to happen next?
2 days after you stop playing at Casino X you get emailed with an offer to re-deposit. It’s a VIP offer as you deposited and staked a good amount. The offer is a 100% deposit match bonus up to £1,000 with 1x rollover. (A typical VIP offer). You also get a 2nd mail from your newly appointed VIP manager who is welcoming you to the casino and giving us his personal contact details. Ok so this casino likes you, that’s great. Let’s check out the bonus.
Deposit £1,000 + Bonus £1,000 = £2,000 funds.
Wagering = £1000 x (1 x 10 wagering contribution on blackjack)
Wagering = £10,000
Bonus EV= £10,000 x 0.05
Bonus EV = +£500
You take the bonus and re-deposit £1,000.
Meanwhile you receive some high value free spins at Casino Y. This is a tactic used by marketing and VIP teams to re-activate your account as you have not placed a bet for over 2 days even though your account is sitting with a balance of £1,400. You take the 100 high value free spins (100 x 0.50c spins) and proceed to bink a couple of nice scores on the free roll ending up with a cashable profit of £100. Now sitting with £1,500 in Casino Y.
Back to Casino X. Now you’ve increased your bet per hand to £500. This is because you already have the label as a VIP on this casino so you don’t need to keep your bet volume up. It is better for you to bet bigger and embrace the variance that comes and keep your -EV volume as low as possible. It works, in so much as you manage to bust your deposit + bonus in 6 hands, pretty impressive 😉 losing 5 of the 6 hands. So with a total stake of £3,000 your EV for the session is -£150. The EV is all that we are concerned with right? Real numbers will take care of themselves and as a professional blackjack player our concern is with EV and EV alone.
2 more days go by at Casino Y and no additional worthwhile promotions have been sent to you so a cashout is in order. This can often prompt a high value re-load offer from the casino. Let’s wait and see what comes.
Back at Casino X your new VIP manager has reached out to you again this time to offer you another exclusive re-load offer plus VIP free spins.
The offer is only 50% this time but it’s up to £5,000. Once again it’s 1 x wagering required. The spins are 100 x 50c spins with zero wagering. You take the spins and bust them in a few mins. Ok on to the re-load.
Deposit = £5,000
Bonus = £2,500
Wagering = £2,500 x ( 1 x 10 blackjack wagering contribution)
Wagering = £25,000
Bonus EV = £25,000 x 0.05
Bonus EV = £2,500 – £1,250
Bonus EV = +£1,250
You accept the bonus and deposit £5,000.
Deposit £5,000 + Bonus £2,500 = £7,500.
Back to your aggressive approach, there is no Max bet imposed by the casino on this bonus as with most VIP offers. Now you’re betting £1,000 per hand. You win the first 4 hands and continue to run good throughout the 25 hands you need to clear the bonus. In total you end up winning 13 of the 25 hands for a profit of £1,000. The EV for the short session is -£1,250. So you ran £2,250 over EV.
You withdraw £8,500 from Casino X to add it to the £1,500 withdrawal from Casino Y.
Total Deposit = £7,000
Total Withdrawal = £10,000
Total Profit/Loss = +£3,000
Total EV = +£1,250
You ran super lucky in this example but the point is that overall you won the EV battle and that is ultimately the battle that wins you the war. You turned playing an unprofitable game into a mathematically profitable spot. You did this with a firm understanding of casino marketing, your EV, how/why VIP teams bonus players and what it takes to get a bonus worth accepting from the casino.
Casino Marketing is a numbers driven profession. They do not consider EV even at the lower levels. They simply bonus the big losers in an aggressive way which often returns the EV they had taken from the player during their initial play. This is the only legitimate way to turn the tables on the online casinos and gain an edge.
I have presented you with an introduction into ”how to beat online casinos” in this simple article, the likes of which you will not see anywhere else. I have been a winning blackjack player using various methods both online and live for over 15 years. You are now at the start of the rabbit hole I first ventured down all those years ago. I can tell you now that not much has changed in all that time. Yes it’s true technology has allowed casinos to remain on top, but it is that same technology that has presented us with some windows of opportunity. I have given you a glimpse into the world of a successful online blackjack player. If you are interested in learning more of the tricks that keep me one step ahead of the casinos all you need to do is stay tuned as I continue to paint this picture and teach you the winning secrets of a true blackjack grinder.
Peace, Jack
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