The CFR two weeks ago in Italy was 6.6%. In Wuhan it was 5.8%. These are 'official' numbers, which were deflated in China to the degree possible by labeling deaths as anything other than SARS2 which was helped by lack of testing. Italy's not testing much either. As cases skyrocket in Italy the ICU beds that keep ~1/2 of those that need them alive are no longer available, and the CFR is going to ~double.
~20% of SARS2 victims need oxygen therapy, and after the beds are gone, it isn't available. The CFR in Italy now is ~10% and rising IMHO. We're not getting good numbers because no one is able to collect them.
The WHO is lying, as they have since this outbreak began.
R0 of seasonal flu is ~1.5. It barely spreads. R0 of SARS2 is above 4, maybe as much as 7 from estimates I've seen. Many more people are going to get SARS2 than get the flu every year. The CFR for the flu is .1%. If the CFR for SARS2 is 10% as seems reasonable without ICU treatment, that's three orders of magnitude more fatalities than the flu for infected, and at least half the world will be infected.
As many as 350M people could die if the R0 isn't dropped below 1 by people preventing getting infected. Quarantines prevent people from being infected by keeping people from interacting.
Quarantines are only necessary if people don't prevent infections by taking actions themselves, like wiping down public items like doorknobs, pens, keypads, and handles on carts, toilets, etc., wearing masks, no longer shaking hands, kissing, and hugging in greeting, and so forth.
People aren't doing that because the WHO is lying, and governments aren't mandating these things be done, and people are sheeple depending on instructions from government. That means quarantines are coming, everywhere they aren't already.
There's your totalitarian tyranny.
That's gonna kill a lot more people in the long run than SARS2. For those that aren't killed quality of life is gonna plummet. They'll offer a better life in the smart cities if you endure the total information awareness over you.
That'll work for a lot of sheeple, but even they won't like it.
The real problem is that agriculture is broken going into this plague, and this plague is making that problem 10 times worse. Not even living in conformance to the strict regs of overlords in the cities is gonna make food available, and that's the real problem going forward I see.
R0 of seasonal flu is ~1.5. It barely spreads
..yet there are 22,000 US confirmed deaths of flue, in this season, so far...
Confirmed deaths would suggest that COV is either less infectious, or less deadly.
..the supply disruption is the killer , not the bug.
Oh, and a shoe in for a tyranny.
I agree about supply disruption (I must stress the agricultural disruption here. I may miss the new iPhone, but Imma die without wheat), and tyranny.
However, you miss the 'confirmed' thing. What is the confirmation process? How many times is that process undertaken? In South Korea and Singapore, that testing is done every contact with an infected. Those numbers of cases are real, because they undertook to do the confirming.
Italy, China, UK, US, not. 'Confirmed' cases is a bullshit number in those jurisdictions, because they're not undertaking testing as needed. China never had the ability to do so, and their tests produce false negatives as many as 7 of 8 tests. 'Confirmed' cases is a dramatic under reporting.
As to CFR, remember it takes weeks to die from SARS2. It takes longer to recover, but I don't believe China about recovered yet. We'll see what's really going on in China ~midsummer, because if they're releasing infectious patients, they won't be able to hide it after ~2 cycles of spread.
One of the big problems with this pathogen is the asymptomatic spread that can happen for literally months, as long as 42 days prior to symptoms, and an unknown amount of time after recovery. Because of that lag we have no idea in real time regarding the spread without accurate tests, and there are no accurate tests I know of, and AFAIK the US isn't testing much.
That really sucks.
tl;dr Using confirmed case numbers is absolutely going to result in grossly lower numbers than reality.
I always hold your intelligence and approach in high regard. However, this does seem to be a matter of figures don't lie, but liars can figure. The numbers are heavily skewed based on most who have had it or currently have it are not being tested.
The confirmed cases will by nature be the worst case scenarios as they hurry to the emergence rooms on their last legs in many cases. Their own numbers (which I will again suggest in fairness are skewed) is the majority of people getting this will mistake it as a cold or the flu and probably not even seek medical treatment. The math is all based on numerical factors that simply don't have enough reference points to be valid. The crucial number involved here (imo) are the deaths, and even that is suspect as I haven't read of testing being done for this on dead folks. But even with the skewed infections numbers this looks less deadly than the flu by a long shot.
Much of this doesn't add up. It looks like they either just want to destroy the world economy (while adding in some more controls as dessert)
or
Their is something they aren't telling us.
Whatever the case, neither path is good. Stay safe, the road looks dark ahead.
Some of the papers by the Lancet and other highly reputable journals I have linked to on my blog provide reliable data, and that data does show orders of magnitude worse fatality than seasonal flu, or even the Spanish Flu of 1918.
There are definitely things they aren't telling us, lies they are telling us, and worse problems than pandemic coming. This is merely a proximate cause for multiple attacks on free society intended to utterly destroy it IMHO.
Far worse than economic reset is the agricultural collapse that is ongoing. I have reposted every video @iceagefarmer made since I found them, and I strongly recommend them. That's why I reposted them. 2019 was a terrible harvest. Half of the corn, wheat, beets, onions, on and on, across the world, and not only in N. America were harvested compared to 2018. 25% of the pigs in the world have been killed because of swine flu, more than 70% of China's pigs, along with ongoing decimations of chickens and ducks in China due to two different bird flu epidemics there.
This is the real problem we're facing now: starvation.
Please view my sources for this information, and take action to ensure a food supply for you and yours.
I don't believe the figures from governments , or the 'health professionals' information.
All the infection rates, incubation periods, ect, ect - are all just information being passed to us, from 'them'.
Ergo, no validity.
Corpse numbers tend to be more accurate. (maybe).
History will tell us if it's the biggest psi op - or not...