The announcements of tariffs on goods from China is met with hysteria in the markets, and escalation from China against The US. If this didn't have such potential huge impact on life of the average person, i would suggest to watch the fireworks from a far off hill.
The problem is this will probably be touted as the biggest problem, the turning point, of the depression we are about to head into. And, only after time has gone by, and many people have written tell-all books, will we have any idea of what really went down.
So, what is really going down?
Does Trump play 5D chess?
Are Xi and Trump in cahoots? Or bitter rivals?
Are the Chinese good guys or bad guys? Or are we all watching some kind of big play/movie?
Well, i hope to offer some insights. But, i know that i am going to fall short. Hindsight is 20/20 y'all
China has been playing us dirty
China has been doing underhanded things to drive competition out of the world. Things that they agreed they would not do. However, China doesn't care. They are in it to bring all the others to their knees. They are practising the Laws of Power, while pretending to be good trading partners.
The CCP has a plan to bring America to its knees, and then ride in and save US, and thus take over bloodlessly.
The problem is, China relies on America for a great deal of its food. Also, a great deal of the raw materials it uses to make the things it sells cheaply. China is soooo fubar if it stops trading with The US.
Of course, America has given up most of its manufacturing, and China could shut down Wallymart at the snap of a finger. If we cut ties with China, it would take years of doing without microwaves and TVs, and assorted cheap junk, perhaps decades. And worse, most of our pharmaceutical chemicals come from China. We would have to do without so much of our prescription drugs.
And China has not been doing things will-nilly. They have been taking over entire industries. So, there is no competition left. They targeted the industry, they undercut its market. They bought up the suppliers. They stole the tech. They hired the talent and moved them overseas. Until there is nothing left of the industry in America.
If we never dealt with China anymore, it would be a good thing. However, that comes with a huge problem of having to start back from scratch. At least a decade of doing without.
Why tariffs?
I would really like to believe that Trump, or whoever is working him has really thought this out. Because there is a million ways this can go wrong… or boom.
The problem is China doesn't like to lose. They especially do not like to look bad. VERY IMPORTANT to save face.
China is trying to sell out of The US debt (bonds). And this is not what they agreed to when they got trading status. People like to talk about all the other countries trying to drop the dollar, but there is no real competition. And there is nothing stronger than the dollar. (best in the race of losing) So, their selling bonds is to destabilize The US. No matter how much they would want to say it is for BRICS.
It looks like Trump is trying to renegotiate trade deals with everyone, and "tariffs" are a way that can be done. For ever, America has taken the short end of the stick. We have such bad trade imbalances, and such bad tariff imbalances, that is fascinating that we, The US, hasn't done anything about it until now.
What is Trump's plans with tariffs?
If Trump is playing 5D chess, than the tariffs are to unsettle all of our trading partners. And then to negotiate new terms, and that includes the Bretton Woods Agreement, where we said The US would patrol the sea lanes, and everyone would accept dollars.
Now, everyone acts like there are no pirates, and they can just take more and more from America (like NATO funding)
The petrodollar has also run its course, and needs to be renegotiated.
So, we need to set the stage for future negotiations.
We need to discuss who is going to make safe the sea lanes. We need to discuss how international trade will be arranged and paid for. We need to discuss if we are going to move to a multi-polar world, how are we going to keep things fair?
Basically, Trump has opened up these negotiations.
Back to the constitution
There is one thing that keeps tickling the back of my mind about tariffs. Tariffs are the only constitutional way for the USA to make money.
The income tax was passed in the middle of Christmas break, while the President's family was threatened to pass this, or else. The Amendment was never properly ratified. Basically, it should not exist, and does not exist.
The Infernal Revolting Syndicate is a corporation out of the Bahamas. (If it was a The US agency, why would this be?) And this agency has national police powers. Their own courts. And can destroy someone's life on mere hearsay. They are the writers of the codes, and the enforcers of the codes. They should not exist.
So, if we were going back to the constitutional republic, the United States of America, instead of the corporation, The US, then we would have to get rid of the income tax, and start only using tariffs.
I expect to see a new dollar. Probably created by the treasury (and not the Fed) and probably backed by gold, because no one is going to believe in fiat.
I expect to see a new SWIFT system. I am unsure if it will be BRICS or XRP (ripple)
I expect to see a lot of debt defaulted upon. (or maybe it will just be paid in old dollars, which no one wants anyway.)
I am sure that America will start manufacturing again. But, i am unsure if it will be the globalists making fully automated manufacturing plants in Silicon Valley 2.0 or if it will be a bunch of entrepreneurs seeing an opportunity with tariffs and shipping disruption working in their favor.
And the really weird one, is China might go away. The Three Gorges Damn bursts, wiping out the middle of China, and then the army is busy trying to fix that, while thousands of protests are no longer stopped by the army, and China breaks into a dozen pieces, and manufacturing is no longer integrated. China basically is unable to keep up with what they used to be doing.
Trump is pulling on random economic levers that haven't been pulled before and then insider trading the chaos he creates. Why would he renegotiate? Well because pulling random levers and picking absurd numbers was never going to be sustainable, it was obvious from the start that none of this was long-game and the goal was a burst of short-term chaos.
Trump has been very clear that he wants easy money to flow and printer go brrr.
You don't get that with tariffs.
What you do get with tariffs is panic and an excuse to make printer go brrr.
Powell doesn't want to play ball so now Powell has got to go.
Trump heavily leans into the fact that people think he's an idiot maniac.
That logic doesn't work on Trump.
Nobody knows when he's bluffing.
I mean I can see what he's doing but apparently other people in the game can't risk it.
China was the only country to be like, "lol you literally can't do this for very long," and they came up with a long-game strategy just in case they needed one. That strategy is a helluva lot better than what Trump is doing, and he can see it.
His bluffs seem to go uncalled, because even if you call them there's still hell to pay in the short term.
I find it interesting that China is the only country to come up with a long-term strategy, and they are the country that needs to have balance of tariffs/trade forced on them.
I can definitely see your viewpoint on what Trump is doing.
He is either a mad genius, or just mad.
Like, those meme coins he (and family) created. He just probably has the wherewithal to wait until the end of his term, and decide, to a rugpull and disappear? Or do i have staying power. And, until the rugpull, no one can guess if he will rugpull.
I will just have to rely upon / trust the universe. I know this is the time of secrets revealed, and this means the spotlights come out upon all the politiroaches. And whether Trump is 5D chessing, or just mad, he is playing a role in this universe movement.
WhyNotBoth.jpg
These aren't necessarily mutually exclusive goals. People get to Trump's office by being able to take advantage of the former with the latter, without disrupting the former. $Trump is a good example of this. He's groveling to his masters just fine, but also grabs a phat stack on the way to his knees.
I mean I can just tell by the action and this brand of insider trading that the goal here isn't to create an 18th-month full blown recession. This is very much a lazy strategy with easy-win vibes. China has done very well at setting up for a long-term battle and it would be quite silly to willingly accept those terms. A quick pivot to short-term strategy and a change of the landscape can undo them and force them to pivot over and over again in response. USA is setting the tempo China is just responding. The only thing USA has to worry about is China somehow gaining tempo in this battle forcing us to respond to their moves. Thus far that doesn't seem to be an issue. China is clearly on the defensive, and it's a very good defense and not worth probing further in the same way we've been doing it.
What you've written was true in 2016, but is not true now.
Only 15% of Chinese exports now go to the US.
As for food, there are two other big food producers, Australia and Brazil. Australia has an advantage in that it's a big island, so it's easy to have good biosecurity. Australian beef is superior to American beef as it's grass-fed, disease free, and doesn't contain steroids or hormones.
The smart play would have been to make an ally of Australia to block exports of food to China. But despite the USA having a rare large trade surplus with Australia, Trump put tariffs on them. Because he's a bully and a fool.
As a result, the Australians are furious with the US and have signed contracts with China to supply them with beef and pork.
I think Trump has dementia and the Republicans should have chosen another candidate.
I really disagree with you on matters of practical import, as well as philosophically. I'll address only the former here. China is on the verge of starvation continually. There's a whole lot of degraded formerly arable land China is trying to rehab, but that isn't yet rehabbed. China is in process of creating the ability to produce food on that land, and is actually doing amazingly well, for instance, by raising salmon in the desert of Xinjiang - an astounding accomplishment.
Oz and Brazil cannot make up the shortfall from the US. A couple years ago the scouring of food China could grasp was illustrated by the massive disappearance of donkeys from Africa, because China was butchering them. China purchased Smithfield Pork to mitigate it's food supply problem. These things don't substantially address the issue China has, however, and China won't address that issue because it is dependent on preventing the actual solution, which is decentralization.
Aquaponics can resolve the issue, and a whole bunch of other problems that come along with food supply fragility, regarding quality control. When supplies are short, quality is sacrificed, and issues notorious in China involving all kinds of taints are worsening. The CCP needs the population to be dependent on it for it's survival, and thus cannot solve it's food supply problem by decentralizing food production with aquaponics. This makes the CCP dependent on US food supplies for it's survival.
While you claim China's exports are a negligible fraction of it's total, that's very misleading, because China is on the edge, deliberately, because you have to be at that bleeding edge to develop as rapidly as China has been, and intends to continue to be. The reality is that sudden drop in exports is utterly existential for the CCP, and it will come to the table or resort to war. War is the last thing China needs, and it is not ready. The only option for the CCP is to find a way to alter it's bleeding edge market development to reduce tariffs on US products, and quickly. How to do this without losing face is the only problem that hasn't been solved, but I suspect it will be solved pretty soon, and the tariff war will end.
I wish China was in that good of a position.
What i see is that China has a LOT of excess production, and they are hurting.
I also see them doing everything they can to get food from anywhere on the globe.
What is sad is that America has lots of grass fed beef… that is shipped overseas. We get the corn and hormone fed beef here in the States.
I do not believe we could have allied with Australia. Like, Australia's govern-cement is very controlled by the WEF. And the WEF wants America to fall, to move the center of power. When i talk to Aussies, they would like to be allies with America, but when we talk about govern-cements, they seem to take pride in going against what Aussies want. (But so is The US)
Trump is not a Repulsivekin. Basically, there is MAGA, and what is left of the RINOs. The Dumbocrap party is dead. So, there really was no other candidate running. The next big election will be interesting. Will the Dumbocraps revive themselves? Will there be an actual MAGA party? Will the Repulsivekin party continue to exist?
And there are prophecies that Trump is the last The US president.
I have come to expect it. Whenever an agent of an institution can stick a knife in the back of the people on the other end of that institution, the customers of a corporation, or the population of a nation, there is an opportunity for graft. That is why the US has taken it in the shorts for so long. The negotiators for the US are not loyal servants, but greedy narcissists and sell us out for a pocket full of silver. 30 pieces, to account them properly.
Not so much that, IMHO, as the Eurodollar is out of control and furriners are taking our pre-inflation advantage, which isn't going to continue. That theft is for 'muricans!
LOL That's so cute! Trump isn't interested in cute and cuddly though. We want things to be fair, but 'we' don't figure at all. Trump and his masters want the money. They don't want fair. They want advantage, to screw everybody else, and they have the big stick.
This.
But, Trump's masters aren't intent on a constitutional republic, and that won't happen by Trump's hand, or over his living, breathing body.
Thanks!
It is very interesting that the only thing propping up the Petrodollar is, all the other currencies are worse. I would be rooting for the BRICS currency, if it wasn't already following the old path of being a piece of shit currency before it even starts.
It may be interesting that in the future (i think it is near) that we have politicians sign a contract that they will be working for us, for Americans. And if they are not, bad things happen to them. I know it is coming, but i really cannot even ponder how it will be written or enforced.
Probably something like, if you are found embezzling (or similar) you stay in jail, with no ability to connect with your money, until all the money is returned. But, that is already bordering on cruel and unusual punishment.
What Trump is? Will we even know after these 4 years are over?
I am not worried about being cruel to the guilty, when the guilty have been cruel to the innocent, which is what they're guilty of. Holding the guilty to account is not cruel, and if it is unusual, that can be rectified by making it what usually happens. Neither is simply getting embezzled funds back enough. 10x damages seems appropriate to me. While I like your idea of indefinite sentences depending on the receipt of fines, that is just ransoming, and is an age old practice. Sometimes tradition exists for reason.
China will probably just try to dump their products on to us in Europe and other markets. Its probably good for the world in the long run that Trump actually takes the fight and dont let China keep pushing out subsidised products all over the world.
China is in a bad position with a lot of overcapacity.
The global recession is killing them far worse than anything we could really do.
The only real thing that will make things much better is localized manufacturing. And that is coming.
US market is still "only" around 400-500 million. They will probably just try to flood their goods to the rest of us.
But yes, more locally produced is what we need. Less reliance on other nations to provide for us.
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