When Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO in May of last year, breaking with a long tradition of geopolitical neutrality, there was a sense of triumphalism in the West. Putin's plan to deter NATO from further expansion had apparently backfired, and most politicians and analysts thought that Sweden and Finland's accession would be quick and easy, given their close relations with most other NATO members. Unfortunately for the West, though, things haven't quite gone as planned. Largely thanks to Turkish President Erdogan's impossible demands. And as such, Sweden's accession now looks less likely than ever. So in this article, we're taking a look at the most recent developments, why Erdogan is still refusing to let Sweden into NATO and try and figure out what Erdogan really wants from this, hint; It's probably not what he says he wants.
Let's start with a quick recap. Sweden and Finland apply to join NATO In May, Erdogan said no, and then in late June, three countries signed a deal called the Trilateral Memorandum, which basically required Sweden and Finland to do three things. One, take a stronger stance against Kurdish groups. Two, drop all embargoes on Turkey. For context, Sweden imposed an unofficial arms embargo on Turkey after Erdogan's invasion of northern Syria in 2019 and three extradite certain terror suspects to Turkey. Now, this was all going well until December, when the Swedish Supreme Court blocked the extradition of former Turkish journalist Bülent Kanish. Now, Kanish used to be the editor of a Turkish newspaper called Today's Zaman, which was often critical of Erdogan. He was then arrested in Turkey in 2015 for, quote, insulting the president in his tweets. And today's Zaman was shut down by the Turkish government a year later. Kanish was then released from prison after an appeal by his attorneys before he fled to Sweden in 2016 after the failed coup, when the government issued a warrant for his arrest for apparently supporting the coup and being an ally of an exiled Turkish cleric that Erdogan considers responsible for the coup.
Anyway, the Swedish Supreme Court blocked his extradition back to Turkey on the grounds that his extradition would leave him vulnerable to persecution and discrimination for his political beliefs, which is illegal under Swedish law. So the Swedish government told Erdogan that they had to abide by the ruling, which didn't go down all too well in Turkey. And as such, Erdogan said that he couldn't sign off on Sweden's accession. In response, pro-Kurdish groups organized anti-erdogan protests in Stockholm, which included hanging an unflattering effigy of Erdogan from a lamppost near Stockholm City Hall. The Swedish government made it clear that they didn't support the process, but Erdogan was apparently still upset. So he summoned the Swedish ambassador over the incident and withdrew an invitation from the Swedish parliamentary speaker to visit Turkey. Then a few weeks later, there was a protest of about 100 far right activists outside the Turkish embassy in Sweden, where a far right politician burned a copy of the Quran. Again, Erdogan, some in the Swedish ambassador, and insisted that Turkey wouldn't approve of Sweden's NATO application as long as Quran burning was allowed in the country. Again, the Swedish government made it very clear that they didn't support these protests, but that they can't ban Quran burning because it would undermine the country's very principles of free speech. It's also worth mentioning that the permit for that demonstration was paid for by a far right journalist called Chan Frick, who used to be a regular on Russia Today, and once even joked that Putin was his real boss.
Regardless, this wasn't enough for Erdogan, and the Turkish foreign minister went as far as accusing the Swedish government of being complicit in what he described as a racist attack. With rhetoric heating up, Finland's foreign minister suggested that both sides needed a, quote, time out and the trilateral discussions on NATO accession were suspended. Finland's foreign minister also suggested that while they prefer joining NATO at the same time as Sweden, Finland would consider joining a loan. For context, Erdogan has made it clear that he would approve Finland's application, just not Sweden's. So you get the idea. Erdogan isn't letting Sweden into NATO any time soon because, A, they won't extradite a journalist, and B, they still allow the burning of the Quran. At first glance, you might conclude that this means that, well, Sweden is never going to get into NATO. They can't extradite a journalist without overruling the Swedish Supreme Court, which would be both constitutionally questionable and deeply unpopular within the country. Similarly, they can't ban the burning of the Quran or effigies of Erdogan because it's not consistent with freedom of speech and because it will be politically impossible for Sweden's new centre right government, who have put a lot of emphasis on free speech.
Fortunately for Stockholm, though, there's probably still some hope for Sweden's NATO ambitions because, well, Erdogan probably isn't being entirely honest about his demands. For starters, Erdogan probably knows that his demands are impossible and they're suspiciously arbitrary. For example, he didn't mind when the Swedish Supreme Court blocked the extradition of another Kurd in July, and most NATO members, including the US, legally, permit the burning of the Quran. So it is a bit odd that he's taken such an issue specifically with Sweden. So if Erdogan doesn't actually care much about these things, then why is he making such a fuss about them? Well, as we see it, there are basically two reasons. Firstly, he's thinking about the upcoming elections due in Turkey later this year. Erdogan is currently well behind every other presidential candidate in the polls. But by holding up Sweden's NATO application and taking a strong stance against Quran burning, he gets to look like a powerful world leader while also playing to his Muslim base.
The second thing he probably really wants, though, is F-16s and F-35s. For context, Turkey, like most of the world, relies on American F-16 fighter jets for its air force. In fact, in the 20 tens, Erdogan decided to upgrade Turkey's air force by buying a whole load of F-35s, which are essentially the next generation F-16s. However, in 2019, Turkey bought a Russian made S-400 air defense system. But the US had previously warned that if Turkey did buy this Russian system, they'd be excluded from the F-35 program. Now, Erdogan presumably thought the US was bluffing, but they weren't, and they immediately cut Turkey out of the F-35 program, despite the fact that Turkey had already paid for 4 F-35s, costing something like $1.4 billion. Then a couple of years later, Turkey asked to buy 70 more F-16s, but the sale was blocked by Congress. Obviously, Erdogan wasn't happy about this, but he stayed relatively quiet about it until this month when he started bringing it up pretty regularly. Clearly, the implication here is that Turkey will be more amenable on the issue of Sweden's NATO accession If the US becomes more amenable regarding F-16s and F-35s. Ultimately, then there may be a path towards Sweden's accession. It might not be easy. It might not be politically popular, you might not like it. But if these are the two things that Erdogan really wants, they're at least slightly more achievable.
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